Inside: Your perspectives on Tom Brady’s role at FOX, plus two key matchups in tonight’s Bills-Dolphins game, a film review of the Packers’ elite defense and why the Vikings believe in Carson Wentz.
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Dolphins at Bills: Matchups to watch
If Buffalo wins tonight, Josh Allen will have more victories against the Dolphins than any quarterback against any other team since he was drafted.
Since 2018, Allen’s 12 regular-season wins against Miami tie Patrick Mahomes (12-2 against the Raiders and 12-1 against the Broncos) and Dak Prescott (12-0 against the Giants) on that list.
Allen should make it 13 tonight, as his 2-0 Bills (-11.5 at BetMGM) host the 0-2 Dolphins at 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video. He will don a visor for the first time in his NFL career as he recovers from an incidental punch to the face last Sunday, but I expect the visor to slow Allen as much as the Dolphins defense (not at all). He features in one of two key duels tonight:
Allen vs. Dolphins secondary. The Bills’ offense looks unstoppable, averaging the league’s second-most points per game (35.5) and an absurd, league-leading 450 yards per game.
Allen should feast on Miami’s suspect secondary, which allows the league’s highest completion percentage (78.8) and the seventh-most yards per reception (12.2). That’s a rare combination of accuracy and depth, and Allen should have time against a front that has one of the lowest pressure rates (23.8 percent of dropbacks) in the NFL.
De’Von Achane vs. Bills defense. Buffalo has struggled to slow the engine of the Dolphins’ attack; in four games against the Bills, Achane averages 6.1 yards per carry, accounts for a third of Miami’s scrimmage yards and averages 25.4 fantasy points.
If the underdogs are to upset the Bills, Achane must exploit Buffalo’s injured defense. Key starting linebacker Matt Milano joins starting defensive tackle Ed Oliver on the sideline due to a pectoral injury.
With Miami expected to trail early, Achane should see plenty of looks from Tua Tagovailoa, who targets running backs at the league’s second-highest rate. Those layups to Achane might open deep shots to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, which Tagovailoa had some success with in Week 2 against New England (four completions of 20-plus yards).
Still, Tagovailoa’s struggles to consistently connect with Hill on deep shots and his weak offensive line bode poorly for Miami, especially against Bills edge rushers Gregory Rousseau and Joey Bosa. I’ll take the Bills by 14.
Over to Dianna Russini.
What Dianna’s Hearing: Could O’Connell make magic again?
The reigning Coach of the Year leaned on trusted voices when Minnesota was considering signing veteran quarterback Carson Wentz. In conversations with Sean McVay and Andy Reid, two Super Bowl-winning coaches, O’Connell heard nearly identical feedback: Wentz still has something left.
Last Thursday’s practice in Minnesota offered a perfect example. It was blitz day, the kind of session that’s typically tough on the offense. Filling in for the injured J.J. McCarthy, Wentz took every rep. According to O’Connell, the ball only hit the ground once. Wentz was in complete command.
Minnesota isn’t asking Wentz to be a savior as a fill-in starter. The Vikings just need him to do the job calmly, consistently, and confidently.
Back to you, Jacob.
The Brady-FOX rules
Much ado about nothing? Hardly. Based on yesterday’s newsletter poll on Brady’s dual role as Fox announcer and Raiders owner, nearly 90 percent of you believe it gives the Las Vegas team a unique advantage.
Most answers were similar to the following:
Majority: “There is vital pregame information that broadcasters are privy to. It’s ‘a game of inches,’ which applies to information as well.” — Tom
“Even the appearance of a conflict of interest should be enough. What is this, Congress?” — Anonymous
Minority: “If a team slated to play the Raiders shares their deepest, darkest secrets with Brady, well, that’s on them.” — Kristen
We’ll get to theorize more this Sunday, when the Raiders face the Commanders (Brady was in the booth for Washington’s Week 1 game). Onward.
How Green Bay defends
It’s not hyperbole to say that the first two weeks of this Packers defense were among the best we’ve seen in the past 20 years.
Green Bay’s defense has allowed just 3.7 yards per play, the eighth-best mark through two weeks among the 640 seasons played by teams in the past two decades.
The Packers even did it against two of the league’s most capable offenses, Detroit and Washington. The Lions scored 52 a week after managing 13 against Green Bay.
So, what are the Packers doing? Like Vic Fangio’s Eagles in the Super Bowl, Green Bay combines an elite pass rush with a secondary made up of five instinctual defensive backs.
The Packers lead the league in sacks and pressure opposing quarterbacks on 43.6 percent of snaps, per TruMedia, despite playing with five DBs 80.8 percent of the time.
Their line dominates with a combination of speed and power, helped immensely by the explosiveness of newcomer Micah Parsons, who hasn’t even started playing full games yet.
As you’ll see in the below clip, even when Parsons fails to get home, Green Bay’s four-man pressure forces quarterbacks to get the ball out, while their Invert Cover 2 variant allows a safety to come downhill and attack the football.
Parsons’ presence makes everyone better. The two biggest beneficiaries might to be defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt and No. 1 cornerback Keisean Nixon, both amid career years; Wyatt has two sacks and five QB hits, while Nixon leads the league in pass breakups. The standouts are everywhere, as PFF’s grades show (though I disagree with their grade for Xavier McKinney, who has been better than that).
Hat tip to defensive coordinator (and head coaching candidate) Jeff Hafley, whose background as a defensive backs coach is likely responsible for their improved secondary. With Green Bay about ready to fully unlock Parsons, they could become even better.
Extra Points
🎂 Battle of the ages. In the case of the Rams and Eagles, it’s literally a matchup between young and old. As Mike Sando explains, the chess match between 67-year-old coordinator Vic Fangio and 39-year-old Sean McVay is one of many age-related contrasts between these title contenders.
📊 What’s trending in the NFL? In Saad Yousuf’s weekly column, he lists the five teams who could win the Super Bowl — omitting the Chiefs — and categorizes all the 1-1 teams.
🎯 Week 3. The Athletic’s Vic Tafur picks against the spread, taking the Broncos (+3 at Chargers) as his upset special.
🏝 Survivor pool? We’ve got you covered this week.
🏆 Fantasy rankings. Jake Ciely shares his sleepers, projections and rankings for Week 3. Yes, Bengals quarterback Jake Browning is in play.
▶️ Yesterday’s most-clicked: How teams adapt to their new quarterback, from the Tyrod Taylor-led Jets to Browning’s Bengals.
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(Photo: Bryan M. Bennett / Getty Images)