Phillies favored over Dodgers for World Series: Three ways Philadelphia became the team to beat in October

Friday night, the NL East champion Philadelphia Phillies won for the 16th time in their last 21 games, using Nick Castellanos’ 250th career home run to take down the Arizona Diamondbacks (PHI 8, ARI 2). The Phillies are 92-62 and will close out their regular season with a series against the non-contending Miami Marlins and Minnesota Twins next week.

“I’m here to do whatever I can to make sure that Philadelphia wins a World Series ring. So whatever that goal looks like, just do the best I can with that,” Castellanos, who was recently demoted to a platoon role, said after the win (via MLB.com). “… I’m here to win. [Owner] John Middleton is paying me money so I can help the Philadelphia Phillies win a World Series.”

The Phillies deployed right-handers Taijuan Walker and Walker Buehler, neither of whom will be in the postseason rotation, as tandem starters Friday. Walker started and allowed two runs in four innings. Buehler then came out of the bullpen and struck out three in 3 ⅔ scoreless innings. The Phillies have already clinched the NL East and are now in experiment mode. 

“It was good. Both those guys. Taijuan I thought threw the ball really well,” Phillies manager Rob Thomson said (via NBC Sports Philadelphia). “… And then Buehler came on and was really effective until that last inning, the last two hitters.”

The Phillies now have the best World Series odds according to Caesars (+425), ahead of the defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers. 

Here are three ways the Phillies have set themselves well going into October, well enough to be the betting favorites.

They’re likely to get a bye

The Phillies still have a chance to finish with baseball’s best record. They’re two games behind the Milwaukee Brewers, though the Brewers won the season series and have the tiebreaker, so the Phillies are really three games back with only eight to play. Doable, though I wouldn’t call it likely. The Phillies last had baseball’s best record in 2011.

Finishing with the best record doesn’t matter a whole lot, though. It’s more important that the Phillies finish ahead of the Dodgers for the National League’s No. 2 seed, which clinches a Wild Card Series bye. The Phillies have a five-game lead over Los Angeles, and it’s really a six-game lead because the Phillies won the season series and have a tiebreaker.

Any combination of Phillies’ wins and Dodgers’ losses totaling three the rest of the way gives the Phillies the No. 2 seed and a bye, and that bye is enormously valuable. Skipping an entire round — a short best-of-three round at that — ups your World Series odds considerably. A bye doesn’t guarantee a deep postseason run, but it sure does help.

Last year’s pennant winners, the Dodgers and New York Yankees, both had Wild Card Series byes.

They’re starting to get healthy

Third baseman Alec Bohm returned Friday after missing 10 games with left shoulder inflammation and went 2 for 5 with a double. He drove in three runs. More importantly, Trea Turner is recovering well from the hamstring strain that sent him to the injured list on Sept. 7. He has increased his running and hitting work, and could begin taking live at-bats soon.

“Great,” Thomson said about Turner’s recovery earlier this week (via The Athletic). “He just continues to have good days.”

Turner, who still ranks second in the NL with 6.7 WAR and is positioned to become the first Phillie to win the batting title since Richie Ashburn in 1958, could be activated before the regular season ends next Sunday. Securing a Wild Card Series bye will give him a few extra days to heal up and get fully back up to speed at the plate as well.

The Phillies will be without ace Zack Wheeler in the postseason. He’ll have season-ending thoracic outlet decompression surgery Tuesday. There’s no replacing him. There’s no replacing Turner either, and he is doing well in his recovery from the hamstring injury. Bohm returned Friday. Turner’s return is on the horizon. The Phillies are getting healthy at the right time.

They’ve embraced platoons

In the corner outfield spots, specifically. Trade deadline addition Harrison Bader has been terrific the last few weeks and has taken over as the everyday center fielder. Thomson is now platooning Castellanos and Max Kepler in right, and Brandon Marsh and Weston Wilson in left. With Bohm back, Otto Kemp could (probably will) replace Wilson in the left field platoon.

Here are the numbers:

The right field platoon isn’t exactly a powerhouse, and Wilson hasn’t hit lefties well, but this is how the Phillies can get the most out of these players. The platoon is better than letting Castellanos face righties and Kepler face lefties. Marsh has long struggled with left-handers and pairing him with Kemp in particular is a sensible move.

It is not a secret Castellanos is unhappy with his new role — “Communication over the years has been questionable, at least in my experience,” he said Friday (via MLB.com) — but it is best for the team. The new corner outfield platoons put these players in the best position to succeed and thus give the Phillies the best chance to win. They were long overdue, really.

“It’s very difficult. It really is,” Thomson said about Castellanos’ new role (via NBC Sports Philadelphia). “For a guy that’s played every day since he’s come to the big leagues and even in the minor leagues to take on this role is difficult. I think he’s trying to adjust, and I think after tonight that tells me something that he’s starting to get a feel for it.”