With extended time to throw against a bad defense, I expect fewer completions but more yards for the Kansas City Chiefs’ superstar.
Photo By – Imagn Images. Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) at the line of scrimmage.
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are 0-2 for the first time in his career, and they can’t afford a loss to the 0-2 New York Giants on the road on Sunday Night Football.
Mahomes is having a rough start to 2025, including a career-low completion percentage through two games, but the Giants’ defense could be just what he needs to turn things around.
Here are my top NFL picks for Sunday Night Football on September 21, with a spotlight on the latest Patrick Mahomes odds.
Make sure to also check out our full Chiefs vs. Giants predictions before kickoff!
Patrick Mahomes prop pick
Patrick Mahomes best bet: Under 22.5 passing completions (-102 at FanDuel)
Despite enduring trailing game scripts in consecutive losses, Patrick Mahomes is only averaging 20 pass completions per game through the first two weeks.
The New York Giants’ defense is much worse than the previous two teams he has faced, but that does not equate to him having more pass completions. If the Kansas City Chiefs grab a big lead, then Mahomes will not be counted on to continue to throw the ball late.
In Week 1, Jayden Daniels finished with 19 completions against the Giants in a 21-6 victory. Daniels averaged 12.3 yards per completion in that matchup, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similarly low-scoring, one-sided game here thanks to the Chiefs’ stout defense.
Mahomes is much more successful when he takes the time to get the ball downfield this season. He has posted the fifth-lowest completion percentage and the fourth-lowest success rate on passes under 2.5 seconds.
On extended dropbacks, Mahomes has completed five of seven passes for 145 yards and a touchdown — marking an average of 20.7 yards per attempt.
Patrick Mahomes same-game parlay
Patrick Mahomes Over 226.5 passing yards
JuJu Smith-Schuster Under 3.5 receptions
Russell Wilson Under 20.5 rushing yards
We can’t use the best bet here, but we can replace it with the Over on Mahomes’ passing yards prop, since we expect the Chiefs’ pivot to hit longer throws in this matchup.
This can be paired with JuJu Smith-Schuster Under four receptions, as there will be fewer short passes — an area where Smith-Schuster typically thrives.
The Chiefs’ defense won’t let Russell Wilson take off, forcing him to throw under pressure, just as they did with Jalen Hurts last week.
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