Donovan Mitchell has been here before. From 2017 to 2022, the Utah Jazz won about 60% of their regular-season games just about every year but never advanced past the second round of the playoffs. In 2020-21, they finished the regular season with the best record in the NBA and by far the best net rating, then caught a break when the Los Angeles Clippers’ Kawhi Leonard tore his ACL in Game 4 of their second-round series. The Jazz lost the next two games in dispiriting fashion, with Clippers wing Terance Mann raining making wide-open 3 after wide-open 3 after wide-open 3 after wide-open 3 in the clincher.
The 2024-25 Cleveland Cavaliers may have been superior to all of those Jazz teams. They had a better record (64-18) and a slightly better net rating (+9.2) than the one that lost to the Clippers. For the third straight year, though, the Cavaliers’ season ended with a whimper. They didn’t just fall to the fourth-seeded Indiana Pacers in the second round; they lost the series 4-1 and their offense fell off a cliff. Mitchell is entering his fourth season in Cleveland and has never had a clearer path to the Finals, but the storyline heading into this one is awfully familiar: Nothing really matters until May.
The State of Play
Last year: Evan Mobley made a huge leap, Darius Garland got healthy and the Cavaliers’ 15-0 start was not even their longest winning streak of the season. Kenny Atkinson won Coach of the Year, Mobley won Defensive Player of the Year (and made Second Team All-NBA) and Mitchell finished fifth in MVP voting (and made First Team All-NBA). They added firepower at the trade deadline by trading for De’Andre Hunter, but, when they found themselves shorthanded in the playoffs, the Pacers ran them ragged.
The offseason: Ty Jerome signed with the Grizzlies, but Cleveland replaced him with Lonzo Ball, whom they acquired for Isaac Okoro straight up. They also re-signed Sam Merrill (four years, $38 million) and reunited with Larry Nance Jr. on a minimum deal.
Las Vegas over/under: 56.5 wins, per BetMGM
The Conversation
Cavaliers believer: The overarching narrative about the Cavs seems to be that they have something to prove this season. Apparently they lost to the Pacers not because of a series of untimely injuries but because they’re a bunch of phonies and chokers. Has everybody forgotten that Darius Garland missed the first two games of the series and wasn’t remotely himself when he returned? Has everybody forgotten that Evan Mobley and De’Andre Hunter both got hurt in the opener and missed the next game? Donovan Mitchell put on his cape, but, especially after he sprained his ankle in Game 4, he couldn’t be expected to save the day singlehandedly. It’s a bit weird to me that some of the same people who believe the Pacers should/would be the champs if not for Tyrese Haliburton’s injury will say that Cleveland losing to them represents some sort of damning failure. When I look at the East now, I see a whole bunch of teams that have something to prove … and then I see the Cavs, who got better this summer and would’ve been the obvious favorites to make the Finals had they done nothing. If Mobley takes another step forward — and why wouldn’t he? — don’t be surprised if they win the whole thing.
Cavaliers skeptic: You’re mad about a “narrative” that the Cavs themselves would not dispute. Of course they have something to prove! Since Mitchell arrived, they’ve won two playoff series, both against teams from Florida that could not score whatsoever. There is a ton of talent here, so it would be insulting to not expect more than that. I promise you that it’s possible to both respect the Pacers and be disappointed that Cleveland couldn’t even take two games from them. Injuries were a factor, obviously, but why did Ty Jerome completely fall apart? What happened to the 3-point shooting? Couldn’t Mobley have done more offensively? Maybe the Cavs are the “safest” bet to come out of the East (because of Haliburton’s and Jayson Tatum’s Achilles tears), but I wouldn’t take them over the field and you can’t possibly believe that the Knicks fear them.
Cavaliers believer: The Cavs swept the season series last year, so I’d say New York should have appropriate fear. And it’s interesting you mentioned Jerome’s playoff struggles, which are now completely irrelevant. If only they had Lonzo Ball in his place against Indiana! Their defense would have been better, and they would have found some easy buckets in transition. I loved the Larry Nance Jr. signing, too, by the way: yet another versatile defender, and he made 45.5% of his wide-open 3s last season. The Knicks — and the Magic and whoever else you consider their competition in the East, for that matter — surely wish they had the two-way role players that Cleveland has coming off its bench.
Cavaliers skeptic: I’m a huge fan of Healthy Lonzo Ball, I greatly admire the audacity of Sam Merrill’s shot selection and I’m glad Nance is back home. That said, the Cavs’ offseason feels risky. Is Ball being healthy in May more likely than Jerome’s regular-season production carrying over into the playoffs would have been? Is Merrill’s shooting more valuable than Jerome’s playmaking would have been? Will playoff opponents really respect Nance and Ball as spot-up shooters? I’m not sure about any of this, and I’m already a bit concerned about wing depth, since Max Strus is going to be out for at least the first month of the season with a foot injury. Let me guess: You’re not worried because Jaylon Tyson is going to be awesome, right?
Cavaliers believer: I did like what I saw from him in summer league (again), but, even with Strus out, Tyson is their 10th man at best. The reason I’m not worried is that Merrill, Hunter and Dean Wade are more than capable of absorbing Strus’ minutes, since they all have smaller roles on this (championship-caliber) team than they could elsewhere. This, by the way, gets at the thing that annoys me about the current Cavs conversation: We know there are a lot of legit players on this roster. We know the pieces fit. We know they’re going to score a ton of points, do it efficiently, and they’re going to be pretty damn good defensively, too. I don’t see any big, existential problems for them to solve. I just see them being a massive problem for everybody else in the East.
Cavaliers skeptic: Funny how things change. A year ago, everybody had serious questions about the Mitchell-Garland backcourt and the Mobley-Allen frontcourt, especially in a playoff context. I don’t know if the Cavs are going to get over the hump this time, but I’m sure about one thing: If they don’t, you’ll hear those same questions, louder than ever.