The New York Mets on Sunday lost to the Washington Nationals (box score) while the Cincinnati Reds completed a four-game sweep of the Chicago Cubs (box score). That means the final wild card in the National League is now a deadlock between the Reds and Mets, both of whom sit 80-76 with one week to play, but Cincinnati holds the tiebreaker.
The Reds appear to have a relatively easy week, as they’ll host the last-place Pirates for three games before visiting the Brewers in Milwaukee. The Brewers have the best record in baseball, but they’ll have nothing to play for in that series and will be setting things up for the NLDS.
The Mets have a road trip. They’ll face the Cubs for three in Chicago and the Marlins in Miami for three more. The Cubs just lost four games in a row after clinching a playoff spot and surely would love to get back on track, but they’re very likely locked into the four seed on the National League side of the bracket. The Marlins have been feisty, having won nine of 10 entering Sunday.
The Reds should be commended for their fight in this race for sure. They took two of three from the Mets earlier this month before winning two of three in San Diego. They’ve now won five in a row.
The story, though, is the Mets’ collapse to this point.
Remember, the Mets had the best record in baseball through June 12, when they were 45-24. They had a 5 ½ lead in the NL East at the time and were 8 ½ games clear of the first team outside playoff position. Per FanGraphs, they had a 96.2% chance to make the playoffs at the time. They’ve now gone 35-52 since, which is better than only the Nationals and Rockies among NL teams in that span.
The Mets have gone 25-34 since the All-Star break, 18-29 since the beginning of August and 7-12 this month. Still, they were six games ahead of the Reds after beating them head-to-head on Sept. 5. The eight-game losing streak that started immediately thereafter and ended last Sunday looms very large if the Mets fail to make the postseason. It should also be noted, as previously mentioned, that the two losses to the Reds to start that losing streak meant the Reds won the season series and head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker for a playoff spot.
“It comes down to winning. We’ve put ourselves in this position, so we’ve got to find a way to get out of it,” Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor said after the game. “That comes down to winning. We’ve got to win ballgames.”
The Mets still have a chance to salvage their season by playing well in the final week of the season, but now they need help. They are tied with the Reds in the standings and the Reds have the tiebreaker. Back in June when the Mets had the best record in baseball, it sure didn’t feel like they’d need to sweat out the third wild card spot.