Sleepers and busts: Who to draft and who to avoid at current value

Managers who successfully pad their rosters with underappreciated overachievers — either in later rounds or via the free agent market post-draft, while avoiding those who fall flat — are always in superior shape contending for a championship. Sniffing out such characters is the trick, of course, with skill, opportunity, health and career trajectory all playing factors in determining if a player is in position to fly unpredictably high.

We’re taking a slightly different tack this year in looking beyond a player’s fantasy potential in respect to their preseason ranking. While still acknowledging that juxtaposition, approximated Average Draft Position (ADP), plus less tangible elements like reputation and name value are also being considered. We probably don’t need to tell you that Mitch Marner is more treasured than his current No. 52 forward ranking suggests. Instead, this is a forum to discuss sleeper candidates who might not attract sufficient attention otherwise.

One last caveat: No rookies here. While some first-year players — Jimmy Snuggerud, Rutger McGroarty, Sam Rinzel, etc. — undoubtedly qualify, they’re receiving fantasy attention all their own elsewhere. The following dozen have at least one full season under their pads, along with a small handful of those who project to disappoint, relative to where they might be selected in respective drafts.

Sleepers

Lukas Dostal, G, Anaheim Ducks (No. 23 goaltender)

With John Gibson taking over Detroit’s crease, the 25-year-old emerges as the undisputed top dog for a Ducks team on the rise. Offseason additions Chris Kreider and Mikael Granlund make this club, including rising stars Leo Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier, better, as does having a successful coach like Joel Quenneville behind the bench. The addition of new assistant Ryan McGill isn’t to be underappreciated either. With more than 25 years experience, McGill possesses a well-earned reputation for improving teams defensively. Music to any goaltender’s ears. Dostal will put up his best personal numbers yet while starting at least 55 games in 2025-26. Grab this emerging gem as your No. 3 netminder and reap the fantasy rewards.

Andrei Kuzmenko, F, Los Angeles Kings (No. 230 forward)

There are worse gigs than skating on a scoring line and top power play with a center such as future Hall-of-Famer Anze Kopitar. Just ask the former Flyer/Flame/Canuck, who contributed five goals and 12 assists in 22 games after being traded to the Kings last winter. We’re not suggesting the enigmatic forward will ever amass 74 points again, including 39 goals, like he did in Vancouver his first NHL season. But 65-plus points alongside Kopitar and Adrian Kempe is not too great an ask, with a hearty portion of them on the power play. Just ensure that’s where Kuzmenko is situated to start the season.

ESPN Fantasy Hockey is the fun, free way to get inside the game. Draft your players, set your lineups and earn points when the pros do. Sign up today!

Cole Perfetti, F, Winnipeg Jets (No. 155 forward)

A favorite sleeper candidate heading into 2025-26, the 23-year-old will be afforded the ripe opportunity to break out in a big way. Entering his fourth full campaign, and with Nikolaj Ehlers gone to Carolina, Perfetti is pegged to again compete on a second scoring line and, extra promisingly, be full-time on a top power play with Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor. Anticipate more than 65 points this season.

Matias Maccelli, F, Toronto Maple Leafs (No. 138 forward)

If — and this is a Scotiabank Arena-sized if — the former Utah skater can stick on a top Leafs line in Marner’s old spot, as projected early on, he’ll be in for a career year. Anyone who gets the chance to compete with Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies on a regular basis is going to put up points, period. Substantially more than the 17 goals and 40 assists Maccelli collected two years ago with the Coyotes. If not, a gig on a second unit with John Tavares and William Nylander wouldn’t be too crummy either. All told, the 24-year-old should feel fairly pumped about his ceiling in Toronto.

Mathew Barzal, F, New York Islanders (No. 117 forward)

Following last year’s injury-riddled campaign, Barzal feels good again, mentally and physically. Good and charged up to make an impact after logging only 20 points in 30 contests. At full health, and in his prime, Barzal boasts point-per-game potential. Like when he scored 80 in 80 only two seasons ago.

Will Cuylle, F, New York Rangers (No. 87 forward)

Rumored to be in the mix for the Rangers’ captaincy until J.T. Miller captured the honor, the third-year skater is being saddled with extra lofty hopes. As in 30-goal/30-assist expectations. Toss in a good sum of shots and exceptional number of hits — he had 300 this past season — and the 23-year-old is poised to make a whole lot of fantasy noise in deeper, balanced leagues. A full-time gig on a scoring line with Miller and Mika Zibanejad, along with secondary power-play minutes, bolsters such promise. Cuylle isn’t yet a household name outside of New York. He will be soon enough.

Trevor Zegras, F, Philadelphia Flyers (No. 106 forward)

Some fresh slates feel more needed than others. As is the case with Zegras and what strikes as a rather necessary move from Anaheim to Philadelphia. While a slot on the second scoring line and top power play appears the worst-case scenario, a gig on the No. 1 unit with Matvei Michkov and Travis Konecny might also be in the cards. More so than with other teams, how new coach Rick Tocchet massages his lineup in camp should be monitored closely. Particularly in how Zegras is utilized. Still only 24 years old, this is a player with 70-point potential. In fresh digs, he’s positioned to provide a spark in deeper leagues.

Morgan Geekie, F, Boston Bruins (No. 136 forward)

Somewhat quietly, the 27-year-old winger pitched in 57 points in 77 games with the Bruins this past season. Not coincidentally, an overwhelming fraction of them — 22 in the last 14 contests — came after Brad Marchand departed for Florida. A full campaign on a top forward unit and power play with center Elias Lindholm and, more significantly, David Pastrnak, should easily boost Geekie near the 70-point plateau.

JJ Peterka, Utah Mammoth (No. 79 forward)

Out of Buffalo, a spot on a scoring line with Dylan Guenther and Logan Cooley, and power play alongside Clayton Keller, should see Peterka notch 70 points, minimum, for the first time in his young career. This young skater also likes to shoot on net. After his breakup with the Sabres, the 23-year-old is now the highest-paid forward with his new club. Time to earn that money.

Want to test out different approaches? Try out the ESPN Mock Draft Lobby.

Ivan Barbashev, F, Vegas Golden Knights (No. 148 forward)

Mostly on a top line with Jack Eichel and Mark Stone, Barbashev averaged 0.73 points/games this past season. Sub in newbie Marner for Mark Stone — if that’s how it does indeed unfold in Vegas — and Barbashev could be in for a slight boost in the production department. The solid forward also likes to throw his body around, to the benefit of fantasy managers in leagues that reward hits.

Shayne Gostisbehere, D, Carolina Hurricanes (No. 51 defenseman)

All he did was score more power-play points (27) than anyone not named Cale Makar, Jake Sanderson, and Quinn Hughes, plus another 18 at even-strength, in only 70 games. Projected to replicate that showing as Carolina’s top unit anchor once more, Gostisbehere merits much greater appreciation in leagues that prize production with the extra skater.

Cam Fowler, D, St. Louis Blues (No. 74 defenseman)

Perennially underrated as a fantasy performer, the former Duck pounded out 36 points in only 51 contests after joining the Blues in December. Nearing 500 career points, the top power-play anchor will bang out another 45 in his first full season with St. Louis. For those who appreciate extra-incentivized skaters, know that Fowler is also in the final year of his current contract.

See also:

• William Eklund, F, San Jose Sharks

• Jackson Blake, F, Hurricanes

• Connor Zary, F, Calgary Flames

• Jiri Kulich, F, Buffalo Sabres

• Shea Theodore, D, Golden Knights

• Jet Greaves, G, Columbus Blue Jackets

Made it this far? Create your own league with your own rules and play against your friends today.

Busts

Connor Bedard, F, Chicago Blackhawks (No. 38 forward)

Chicago’s franchise player needs to be surrounded by a stronger supporting cast. Until then, the 2024 Calder winner won’t break the point-per-game barrier. With Bedard entering the final year of his entry-level deal, Blackhawks management should start making tangible improvements to this roster asap.

Steven Stamkos, F, Nashville Predators (No. 24 forward)

The former Lightning legend scored just 53 points in Nashville last year. While we don’t anticipate a repeat of that uncharacteristically lousy performance from the career better-than-point/game player, he isn’t likely to pitch in upwards of 75 either. So the No. 20 ranking feels off-base.

Mike Matheson, D, Montreal Canadiens (No. 18 defenseman)

In Lane Hutson’s Calder-winning shadow, Matheson saw his production drop from 62 points in 2023-24 to 31 this past season. Now Noah Dobson is aboard, so how many power-play points can we now expect from the 31-year-old? Answer: Not nearly enough to merit this high ranking.

Brent Burns, D, Colorado Avalanche (No. 53 defenseman)

Joining his fourth NHL team in 22 years, the veteran defender will enjoy another legit shot at winning his first Stanley Cup. So we don’t expect the 40-year-old to complain much about taking a blue-line backseat to the likes of Cale Makar, Devon Toews, Samuel Girard etc. After potting 61 points in Carolina in 2022-23, Burns eked out only 29 this past season. As a projection, that sum feels like his ceiling with the Avalanche.

Logan Thompson, G, Washington Capitals (No. 12 goaltender)

Making his way over from Vegas, Thompson served as a happy fantasy surprise for many in 2024-25. The concern now is can he come close to repeating his sparkling 31-6-6 record (most likely no) for a Capitals team endeavoring to replicate their 111-point campaign? (Also probably not happening.) Thompson’s .910 SV% suggests a lot else went right in securing himself such an impressive winning percentage. He’s a good fantasy goalie, no question, but not our first choice for a No. 2 in reasonable-sized leagues.

Download the ESPN Fantasy Sports app and have every player right at your fingertips. Available on the App Store and Google Play.