Jason Ence breaks down his favorite Alabama vs. Georgia player props ahead of Saturday’s massive SEC showdown, including Ryan Williams and Isaiah Horton.
Photo By – Imagn Images. Alabama Crimson Tide wide receiver Isaiah Horton (1) warms up.
Two titans of the Southeastern Conference clash on Saturday night when the Alabama Crimson Tide travels between the hedges to face the Georgia Bulldogs.
Two talented offenses will look to impose their will, and our Alabama vs. Georgia player props and college football picks break down which stars should have solid games in what should be a game that goes right down to the wire.
Alabama vs Georgia props for Week 5
Ryan Williams Over 62.5 receiving yards (-114)- Isaiah Horton anytime touchdown (+310)
Chauncey Bowens Over 31.5 rushing yards (-114)
Prop bet #1: Ryan Williams Over 62.5 receiving yards
-114 at FanDuel
Georgia is ranked 101st in defensive success against the pass and 97th in EPA/pass. The Dawgs are also struggling to generate havoc and are allowing nearly eight yards per dropback.
That means quarterbacks are getting time to look downfield and are punishing them, which is great news for Ryan Williams. Alabama made it a point to get him going early against Wisconsin, and he torched the Badgers for 165 yards and two touchdowns on five catches.
Georgia’s win over Tennessee saw Chris Brazzell II go off, with six catches for 177 yards and three touchdowns. Braylon Staley also had 97 yards on nine grabs, while Mike Matthews picked up nearly 60 yards on three catches.
The Tide ranks eighth in passing success and has an explosive pass rate of 14.6%, one of the best in college football. Ty Simpson should have a field day, and there’s no way that happens without Williams being the beneficiary.
Williams has breakaway speed and will punish this Bulldog secondary. After what we saw from the Vols last week, I wouldn’t be surprised if he covers this game total on one big catch just as he did against Wisconsin.
Prop bet #2: Isaiah Horton anytime touchdown
+310 at FanDuel
I love Isaiah Horton’s props in this game, and will be playing both Over 2.5 receptions and Over 30.5 receiving yards against the Dawgs.
But his anytime touchdown odds present the best value on the board, in my opinion. That’s because, much like Brazzell, he’s a nightmare to cover.
Horton is a 6-foot-4 receiver with excellent hands, and he’s caught all nine passes thrown his way this year. And last year at Miami, he and Cam Ward hooked up multiple times in the red zone utilizing back corner fades.
He’s scored in consecutive games for the Tide, including a touchdown in the red zone late in the first half against the Badgers. Simpson found him after he got single coverage and used his big frame to get inside on a slant route and shield off the defender as he high-pointed the ball.
His price of +310 shows implied odds of below 25%, which makes this a no-brainer for me.
Prop bet #3: Chauncey Bowens Over 31.5 rushing yards
-114 at FanDuel
Missed tackles have been a major issue for Alabama this season, with 32 already through three games. Florida State forced 14 in its win, as the Seminoles rushed for 230 yards on 49 carries.
The combination of Nate Frazier and Chauncey Bowens will punish this Crimson Tide defense if that doesn’t get cleaned up. Both are averaging better than four yards a carry on the season, and are getting a fairly even share of the carries over the past two games.
Alabama’s run defense hasn’t been great, allowing nearly three line yards per attempt with a stuff rate of just 17% on the year. The Tide also ranks 66th in EPA/rush.
The Dawgs rank 23rd in rushing success rate, with the line generating 3.3 yards per attempt. And while Frazier is getting more carries, the split isn’t big enough for me to ignore the fact that Bowens has a rushing total more than 20 yards less than his teammate.
Bowens has rushed for 32+ yards in all three games, and Florida State had three different backs go for at least 28 yards against Alabama. I expect Georgia to rely on the ground game, and Bowens should go over his rushing total if he again gets double-digit carries, as I expect he will.
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