Justin Herbert took a beating in Week 4, while Omarion Hampton had a breakout game. Our early leans for Commanders vs. Chargers expect the Bolts to rely on the run in a low-scoring Week 5 victory.
Photo By – Imagn Images. Los Angeles Chargers running back Omarion Hampton with the ball.
The Washington Commanders cross the country for an interesting non-conference clash with the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 5.
Washington is hoping to have quarterback Jayden Daniels back from a knee injury (the same might not be said for his top targets), while the Chargers are picking up the pieces after a stunning loss at the New York Giants in Week 4.
Here are my early Commanders vs. Chargers predictions and NFL picks for October 5.
Commanders vs Chargers predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Commanders vs Chargers spread pick: Chargers -3
-104 at FanDuel
Some shops are dealing a field goal while other books are just below that key number. I’m giving the early nod to the Los Angeles Chargers, who are primed for a bounce-back after a sour showing in East Rutherford this past weekend.
The Washington Commanders find themselves in a bit of a schedule squeeze, traveling to La-La Land for a second straight road game in what will be the third away tilt in the past four weeks.
Daniels, who missed the last two games with a knee injury, is hoping to return but could still be missing top WRs in Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown, who are questionable for this game after sitting out Week 4.
Los Angeles’ defense is getting plenty of love from the advanced metrics, sitting No. 3 in EPA allowed per play, No. 1 in opponent success rate, and No. 7 at PFF. The Chargers are generating great pass pressure with just a four-man rush (blitzing at third lowest rate), which is vital to slowing down Daniels.
Early Commanders vs Chargers total pick: Under 47.5
-110 at FanDuel
The Bolts’ pass protection was abused by the Giants in Week 4, and QB Justin Herbert continues to take a pounding under center. This L.A. O-line just lost OT Joe Alt, and Mekhi Becton is still in concussion protocol.
The Commanders have cooked up chaos in Dan Quinn’s defense, owning a respectable pressure rate and 10 sacks on the season. They sit 15th in pass rush rating at PFF.
The Chargers know Herbert can sustain that punishment, so this offense could go conservative in the passing attack. Look for quicker, shorter throws to avoid pressure and plenty of handoffs from this Greg Roman playbook.
Omarion Hampton had a breakout day with 128 yards on 12 carries while also catching five balls for 37 yards receiving. Los Angeles will attempt to establish the run early, giving way to Hebert’s play-action passes.
With a tender Daniels’ playing on eggshells and potentially without his top two deep threats, this Commanders offense may also run shorter and quicker. All of which leads to a lower-scoring finish in SoFi Stadium.
Commanders vs Chargers odds
- Commanders vs. Chargers spread: Chargers -3
- Commanders vs. Chargers moneyline: Commanders +132, Chargers -156
- Commanders vs. Chargers Over/Under: 47.5
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