In his weekly Tuesday press conference, San Francisco 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan was asked about the team’s challenging stretch of upcoming games, which features four road contests over the next five weeks, including three away matchups against teams that made the playoffs last season.
Shanahan did his best to answer the question.
“Um, I’m not sure,” he said. “I don’t even know who we have after the Rams.”
Shanahan can be forgiven if he truly does not know that San Francisco plays the Buccaneers, Falcons, Texans and Giants in Weeks 6-9 because his team has a massive matchup this week: the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium on Thursday Night Football. The Week 5 showdown between the NFC West rivals is so significant, in fact, that it is the biggest leverage game in the NFL this week according to the SportsLine’s Inside the Lines team.
The 49ers and Rams enter Thursday in a three-way tie with the Seattle Seahawks for first place in the division, at 3-1. The Arizona Cardinals (2-2) are one game back.
According to the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, Matthew Stafford & Co. enter the week with a 59.3% chance to make the playoffs. But if Los Angeles were to lose at home on Thursday—the Rams are 7-point favorites—that probability crashes to 41.3%. That hypothetical 18.0% drop is the biggest of any NFL team in Week 5.Â
| Team | Probability of making playoffs | Probability after Week 5 loss | Differential |
| Rams | 59.3% | 41.3% | 18.0% |
| Colts | 82.7% | 68.3% | 14.4% |
| Ravens | 44.0% | 30.5% | 13.5% |
| Chiefs | 82.4% | 69.3% | 13.1% |
| Cardinals | 34.2% | 21.6% | 12.6% |
Conversely, San Francisco can improve its postseason hopes immensely with a victory on Thursday. The model’s projections say the 49ers have a 57.6% chance of reaching the playoffs. That probability rises to 72.3% if they earn a road win on Thursday. The 14.8% jump is the second best of any team in the league for Week 5, behind only the Patriots (17.1%), who play Sunday night at the Bills.
| Team | Probability of making playoffs | Probability after Week 5 win | Differential |
| Patriots | 25.0% | 42.1% | 17.1% |
| 49ers | 57.6% | 72.3% | 14.8% |
| Jaguars | 57.2% | 70.7% | 13.5% |
| Ravens | 44.0% | 55.1% | 11.2% |
| Texans | 29.5% | 40.1% | 10.6% |
The projection model sees the NFC West race going down to the final week. The simulations say that the Seahawks average 10.7 wins, slightly ahead of the Rams (9.9), 49ers (9.5) and Cardinals (8.8).Â
Top sportsbooks agree with the model that little separates the four teams in the division. At DraftKings, Los Angeles is a slight +110 favorite to win the NFC West, slightly ahead of San Francisco (+190) and Seattle (+370). Arizona (+1900) rounds out the division.
So much rides on Thursday’s outcome, and the 49ers will enter the important showdown without three key offensive starters. Quarterback Brock Purdy already has been ruled out for the game with a toe injury that kept him out two games this season. Backup Mac Jones, who went 2-0 in place of Purdy in Weeks 2 and 3, is set to start again.
San Francisco’s top two wide receivers, Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings, also have been ruled out for Thursday. Pearsall is battling a knee issue while Jennings has been slowed by ankle and rib ailments. Considering tight end George Kittle (hamstring) is on the IR and receiver Brandon Aiyuk (ACL) in on the PUP list, the 49ers will be missing all of their top offensive weapons except for Christian McCaffrey.Â
Still, Rams coach Sean McVay expects a tough San Francisco team on both side of the ball.
“Nobody has more respect for this group than I do,” McVay said. “We know what a great challenge it is going to be.”