The Jonathan Kuminga saga has finally come to a close (sort of) as the soon-to-be 23-year-old agreed to a two-year, $48.5 million deal with the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday, with the second year being a team option. This situation can only be categorized as “sort of” resolved, of course, because questions remain.
Here are three main ones.
1. Will Kuminga still be traded?
The smart money says yes. The Warriors, outside of Joe Lacob, do not appear in any way committed to Kuminga and Kuminga did everything he could to get away from the Warriors. This is a lack-of-options marriage, and when and if it can end in any sort of beneficial way for the Warriors, they’ll likely pull the trigger.
Until that happens, however, both sides are highly incentivized for Kuminga to play well. If that happens, Golden State either has a major contributor heading into the playoffs on a team-friendly deal or a high-value trade chip. Kuminga, meanwhile, is auditioning for his next contract; that’s why he settled on the two-year deal instead of the three years Golden State was also offering (with the third year being the team option), because he wants to guarantee free agency a year sooner. He also is a far more attractive player for teams that might be looking to trade for him during the season with that second year guaranteed from a team perspective, which would not have been the case had Kuminga take the one-year, $7.9 million qualifying offer.
All of this is to say, this is a deal that is structured to keep the possibility of trading Kuminga at any point before the February deadline alive and well. It feels a lot like when the Warriors took back D’Angelo Russell in the sign and trade for Kevin Durant in the summer of 2019. They never wanted Russell. He never fit with the way Golden State plays. The plan, no matter what they said publicly, was always to trade him. It seems likely that is still the plan with Kuminga, as well. This has just bought them some more time.
2. What will Kuminga’s role be?
This is interesting. For the first few months of the season, will the Warriors be more inclined to use Kuminga in a way they believe helps the team the most, or in the way that will better highlight Kuminga’s strengths in an effort to raise his trade value?
It’s unlikely that he will start, which Kuminga has openly stated he wants the opportunity to do. Even with Al Horford being a bonafide 3-point shooter at center (this a huge addition for Golden Sate that could legitimately have championship implications) and Steph Curry basically providing the spacing of one and a half players, it’s hard to start a lineup with three non-shooters. Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green are in. That fifth guy is likely to be a more capable shooter. Brandin Podziemski. Maybe even Buddy Hield.
Thats said, Steve Kerr has already talked this summer about being more open to lineups that include both Butler and Kuminga this season. Last year, once Butler arrived, Kuminga was all but removed from the rotation as Kerr didn’t like the lack of spacing that pairing provided.
But once Curry went down and Kerr had no choice, Kuminga showed in the Minnesota series that he can thrive alongside anyone if he is confident and attacking. That’s the key. Not so much whether Kuminga starts or even finishes games, but that whenever he is on the floor, he’s put in a position to do what he does best.
If Kerr still wants him to be the off-ball cutter and occasional secondary scorer that Kuminga believes is beneath his talent, it’s fair to question just how committed Kuminga will be to that role, even understanding that he has an incentive with his next contract to play as well as possible while he’s under this one. He may just check out and hope the Warriors find the situation untenable enough to trade him for minimal return value.
But if he feels prioritized, even in smaller ways, and he gets off to a good start and the vibes are good and his confidence is high, he could be a Sixth Man of the Year candidate. That would be the optimal outcome for the Warriors, even if Kuminga won’t like the sound of “Sixth Man.”
3. How much can Kuminga help the Warriors?
A ton. I don’t care what anyone says. He is the only guy on the team who can do what he does as an athletic, forceful shot creator and above-the-rim finisher. This is a straight-up senior-citizen squad. Kumimga’s pop is a potential major swing factor for a team with championship aspirations.
Yes, the Warriors held off on trading him this summer because they couldn’t get enough value back. But there is also a part of that entire organization that understands Kuminga’s potential and is hesitant to throw in the towel on the idea of it coming to more consistent fruition.
If it does, watch out. Because the Warriors have everything else. The Horford signing is gigantic. Curry and Butler were one of the best duos in the league before Curry got hurt in the second round. Butler has shown he is not a guy that wants to take over as a scorer in non-Curry lineups, and Kuminga taking charge of that responsibility could be the difference between a second-tier and a top-shelf contender if he remains with the team past the trade deadline.