NFL Week 5 picks, nine coaches on the hot seat and predictions for Rams vs. 49ers on ‘Thursday Night Football’

Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

We’re just hours away from the greatest event in NFL history: Taylor Swift’s new album. And yes, I’m counting it as an NFL event since she’s now engaged to an NFL player. The album is coming out at midnight and it will be the first one that’s been released by her since she got engaged to Travis Kelce in August. I know the NFL doesn’t flex Thursday games this early in the season, but the league definitely blew it by not having the Chiefs play tonight. The release party for Taylor’s album could have been ON THE FIELD after the game. 

Bet Thursday Night Football at DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users get $200 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager:

Although the Chiefs aren’t playing tonight, we do have a solid game with the Rams hosting the 49ers in an NFC West showdown between two teams who are both 3-1. In today’s newsletter, we’ll be making some predictions for tonight’s game, plus we’ll be taking a look at which coaches are on the hot seat heading into Week 5. 

As always, here’s your reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. 

1. Thursday night preview: Picks and best bets for 49ers at Rams

The first NFL game of October is a big one and that’s because first place in the NFC West will be on the line in Los Angeles. The 49ers are already 2-0 in the division this year, so if they can pull off the upset tonight as an 8.5-point underdog, that would give them a huge boost since division record is the first tiebreaker for any division ties at the end of the year. 

The problem for the 49ers is that they’ll be going into this game without Brock Purdy, who will be sitting out with a toe injury. On top of that, the 49ers also won’t have their top two receivers, with Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings both ruled out. 

So can the 49ers win with their injury-depleted roster? 

Here’s one reason why each team should be feeling confident going into the game:

• Why the 49ers can win: Through four weeks, the 49ers have had one of the best defenses in the NFL, and they’re going to need another huge performance from their defense if they want to win this game. With Mac Jones under center, the 49ers can’t let this turn into a shootout, because if that happens, they’ll almost certainly lose. The 49ers are surrendering just 165 passing yards per game and a big reason they’ve done so well is because cornerbacks Deommodore Lenoir and Renardo Green have looked impressive in the early season. 
  If the 49ers can slow down the Rams’ passing attack, that should give San Francisco a chance to steal the game. 
• Why the Rams can win: Puka Nacua has the most receiving yards in the NFL, Davante Adams ranks in the top 20 in receiving yards and Matthew Stafford has the second-most passing yards. If that group gets going, it’s going to be a long night for the 49ers. With Nick Bosa out, the 49ers will likely struggle to get pressure on Stafford, who will be able to pick them apart if he’s not facing any pressure. If Stafford has a big game, the Rams will be a near lock to win. 

You can get a full preview of the game from Cody Benjamin by clicking here.

If you’re thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props (odds via BetMGM, where new users get up to $1,500 back if their first bet loses):

• ONE RECEIVING PROP I LIKE: Christian McCaffrey OVER 53.5 passing yards (-115): With the 49ers missing their top two receivers, McCaffrey is the only true receiving weapon they’ll have on the field tonight. Not to mention, Mac Jones will likely be facing a lot of pressure and if that happens, he’ll almost certainly want to get rid of the ball quickly, which means dumping it off to the running back. McCaffrey has gone over 53.5 receiving yards in three of his four games this season. In Jones’ last start, which came in Week 3, McCaffrey caught 10 passes for 88 yards. I expect McCaffrey to touch the ball a lot tonight.  
• ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Joshua Karty OVER 7.5 points (-150): At -150, this isn’t a glamorous bet, but it feels safe. Karty has scored at least nine points in three straight games and I think he’ll hit that total again tonight. Sean McVay almost always takes the points on fourth down, so there should be plenty of field goal opportunities for Karty, who has averaged 2.5 field goal attempts per game this year. I expect Karty to score early and often. 

If you’re wondering how my props are doing this year, I’m 11-7 (5-3 on kicker props and 6-4 on all other props). 

And now, it’s time for some picks. 

PICKS FOR ‘TNF’

Cody’s pick: Rams 26-17 over 49ers
Pete Prisco’s pick: Rams 27-20 over 49ers
Tyler Sullivan’s pick: Rams 28-20 over 49ers
Jordan Dajani’s pick: Rams 27-13 over 49ers
My pick: Rams 24-17 over 49ers

We’ve got some more picks over on our CBSSports.com predictions page, and you can check that out here. 

You can bet NFL games this week at FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager:

2. NFL hot seat rankings: Mike McDaniel’s seat is scalding hot heading into Thursday night

With the NFL season officially heading into October, now seems like a good time to get out our thermometer so we can measure which coach has the hottest seat in the NFL, and let’s just say, if the temperature hits 115 degrees in Nashville tomorrow, it’s because the heat is coming from Brian Callahan’s seat. 

Let’s check out who’s sitting on the hottest seat heading into Week 5 (Rankings by Jeff Kerr):  

1. Brian Callahan (Titans). This team doesn’t have a good roster, but a team with the No. 1 overall pick at quarterback should be better. Maybe Ward isn’t good, but what is Callahan doing to make him better? The offense lacks creativity and the play-calling isn’t set up for a rookie quarterback to succeed. The offensive line isn’t exactly good either. Callahan has a lot of flaws as a coach, the the team isn’t improving. Tennessee may be the worst team in the NFL, and the clock is ticking.

2. Mike McDaniel (Dolphins). The Dolphins’ schedule gets somewhat easier over the next few weeks with Carolina and Cleveland being two of their next three games. Miami needed a win against the Jets and got it, saving McDaniels’s job for the time being. Hate to call these next few games a “must win” for the Dolphins, but they are for McDaniel if he wants to be this team’s coach by November.

3. Dave Canales Panthers. Carolina is 27th in offensive points per game (17.0) and 19th in points per possession (1.82). Bryce Young is 25th in touchdown rate (3.5%) and 28th in passer rating (77.1). Perhaps tis is who Young is and Canales can’t change it. Why is Canales in danger? The Panthers have unstable ownership in David Tepper with a quick trigger. They are a bad team in a bad division, a clear bottom dweller in the NFL. If Carolina hits the reset button, Canales may not survive the rebuild.

There are nine total coaches on Kerr’s list, including THREE of the four from the AFC North, so be sure to click over and check out his full story. 

3. NFL Week 5 picks: Eagles stay undefeated, Seahawks improve to 4-1

Welcome to the part of the newsletter where we hand out picks. We have four NFL writers — Pete Prisco, Jordan Dajani, Tyler Sullivan and myself — handing out picks each week. For the second straight week, Prisco has bragging rights after going 12-3-1 straight up with his picks in Week 5. That means Prisco is now 25-6-1 over the past two weeks. That guy 

If you’re new here, here’s how things work: I’ll give you one Week 5 pick from each writer and then direct you to the rest of their picks for the week. That way, if you like their pick, you’ll be able to click over and check out all of their Week 5 picks, but if you hate their pick, you can ignore the rest of their picks and move on with your life.

• Pete Prisco — Eagles 24-23 over Broncos (+3.5). “This is a long trip on a short week for the Broncos, which is never a good combination. But they are coming off a victory Monday night that saw Bo Nix play better. That is important after his slow start. The Eagles are 4-0, but the numbers don’t show a dominant team. Philadelphia will find a way to win this one, but it will be close thanks to the Denver defense.” For the rest of Prisco’s Week 5 picks, be sure to click here.
• Tyler Sullivan — Lions (-10) 33-17 over Bengals. “The Bengals are lost offensively. And that unit is supposed to keep this close with the Lions, who lead the NFL with 34.3 points per game this season? Aidan Hutchinson should have a field day attacking this offensive line, and the Lions offense should continue to hum against a defense that just allowed Bo Nix to light them up for three total touchdowns Monday night.” For the rest of Sullivan’s Week 5 picks, be sure to click here.
• Jordan Dajani — Seahawks (-3) 24-17 over Buccaneers. “After that gross Week 1 loss to the 49ers, the Seahawks have actually been playing well. They own the second-highest point differential in the NFL this season, and are one of two teams to allow 20 or fewer points in all four games this season. Give me Seattle vs. the injured pirates of Tampa.” Dajani’s full slate of picks will be released Friday, and you’ll be able to find them here. You can get an early preview of his predictions here. 
• John Breech — Browns (+3.5) 19-16 over Vikings. “With Carson Wentz and Dillon Gabriel serving as the two starting quarterbacks, this game feels like a situation where the first team to 20 is going to win, but I’m not sure anyone is going to get to 20, so I’m just going to go with the Browns. I don’t think Gabriel will play well against Brian Flores’ defense, but I think Wentz will be even worse against Cleveland’s defense.” For the rest of my Week 5 picks, be sure to click here. 

For more Week 5 NFL picks, you can check out our CBSSports.com picks page here. 

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4. Ranking every team in the NFL by tiers: Bengals can start preparing for the draft

Although it’s hard to tell who’s a contender and who’s a pretender through the first few weeks, you can start to see some separation heading into Week 5. For instance, we know the Bills are good and that the Titans are bad. 

So what else do we know? Well, Jared Dubin decided to answer that question by ranking all 32 teams in tiers. Dubin created five different tiers from “best of the best” to “probably good” to “possibly frisky” to “probably bad” to “see you at the draft.” 

I’m not going to spoil his entire story, so we’re just going to take a look at the teams in his top tier and the teams in his bottom tier. 

Best of the best: Bills, Lions, Packers, Rams, Eagles
Dubin’s take: The Eagles and Bills are 4-0. They were among the best of the best last year and just keep winning. … Separating the Lions, Packers and Rams from the rest of the teams near the top is a bit more difficult, but mostly comes down to ceiling. The Lions have shown that their offense is still a machine, even if that machine got taken offline for a while in Week 1 against Green Bay. The Packers have shown that their defense, which did just get torched by Dak Prescott, has the ability to be such a monster that it is almost impossible to move the ball. And the Rams have shown that they can compete with anyone on both sides of the ball.

See you at the draft: Panthers, Bengals, Browns, Saints, Jets, Titans
Dubin’s take: These teams are going nowhere fast. The Panthers have looked fairly embarrassing in three of their four games. … The Saints, Jets and Titans are all 0-4, and they look varying degrees of terrible. The Jets have probably looked the “best” of the three teams, and they don’t look good at all. … It might be aggressive to put the Bengals here, but they’ve lost two straight in pathetic fashion without Joe Burrow and their next three games are against the Lions, Packers and Steelers. They’ll likely be 2-5 before we have a chance to blink.

If you want to see how all five of Dubin’s tiers break down, we’ve got that here. 

5. Ranking all 40 Browns’ starting quarterbacks since 1999

With Joe Flacco getting benched this week, that means that Dillon Gabriel will now become the 41st player to start at quarterback for the Browns since they returned to the NFL in 1999.  That’s the most different starting quarterbacks by any team over that span (The Commanders rank second with 35 different starters). 

After Gabriel was officially named the starter on Wednesday, Cody Benjamin decided to get completely crazy by ranking all 40 of Cleveland’s prior starting quarterbacks. 

Let’s check out five of the names on the list: 

1. Baker Mayfield (2018-21): He may be more reliable now as the spirited leader of the Buccaneers, but Mayfield flashed some of his trademark tenacity as Cleveland’s No. 1 pick. 
12. Trent Dilfer (2005): Dilfer’s one-year stint was marked by reported discord with the offensive staff. He ended up with more picks (12) than touchdowns (11) across 11 starts.
15. Seneca Wallace (2010-11): Wallace managed just one win in seven starts but started relatively strong, with four touchdowns and an 88.5 rating in his first year.
25. Doug Pederson (2000): The future Super Bowl-winning coach of the Eagles, Pederson only arrived in September as last-minute depth for a banged-up quarterback room, then went 1-7 in a string of mostly blowout losses.
40. Spergon Wynn (2000): Called upon as a sixth-round rookie, he went 5 of 16 for 17 yards in a 48-0 loss during his lone start. It wasn’t long before he relocated to the CFL. 

If you want to see Cody’s full ranking, and trust me, you do, be sure to head here. 

6. Extra points: Lamar Jackson’s status still up in the air for Week 5

It’s been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. 

• Ravens mum on Lamar Jackson’s status. The Ravens QB injured his hamstring in Week 4 and it’s still unclear if he’s going to play against the Texans this week. John Harbaugh was asked about the situation on Wednesday and he didn’t offer any details. “How about I just don’t say anything? That’s what I would do. Why don’t we just leave it alone,” Harbaugh said, via ESPN. If Jackson can’t play, then the Ravens will be turning to Cooper Rush. 
• Jayden Daniels medically cleared. The Commanders QB is expected to return to action this week against the Chargers after being medically cleared to play. Daniels had missed Washington’s last two games while dealing with a knee injury. You can read more about his injury situation here. 
• Dillon Gabriel makes debut in our weekly QB rankings. Every week, Cody Benjamin ranks all 32 starting quarterbacks and this week, Gabriel is now in those rankings. The Browns QB made his debut at 28th overall. If you want to see who he finished AHEAD of, you can check out Cody’s full ranking here. 
• Former All-Pro corner retires after four games. Colts cornerback Xavien Howard has decided to retire. The 32-year-old had signed with the Colts back in August after sitting out the 2024 season. If you want to know why he abruptly decided to call it quits, you can check out our full story here.    
• Cardinals place Trey Benson on IR. The Cardinals are now down to their third-string running back after placing Trey Benson on injured reserve. Benson underwent surgery on his meniscus and will likely miss 4 to 6 weeks, according to ESPN.  The Cardinals had already lost James Connor to injury, and now, they’ll be turning to Emari Demercado. If you need a fantasy running back this week, you might want to stop what you’re doing and go check to see if he’s available.