Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you’re torn between two similar players and simply don’t know who to start, start the player with the superior matchup.
Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
The matchup rankings provide a schedule independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, we calibrate points allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
As we enter Week 5, only data from the 2025 season is used, but once six weeks are in the books, only the most recent five weeks’ worth of numbers will be used.
Adjusted fantasy points allowed (Adj. FPA) reflects how far above or below players’ weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defenses held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable. A negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember that teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team’s personnel at that position.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor every unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my — and ESPN fantasy staff’s — most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Justin Fields, New York Jets (vs. Dallas Cowboys). Overshadowed in the Jets’ 27-21 Week 4 loss to the Miami Dolphins were his rushing contributions, which kept his team in the game and represented the 16th time in his 47 NFL starts that he scored at least 10 fantasy points with his legs. Fields now brings that mobility into a matchup with the Cowboys, by far the league’s worst defense, and one that has surrendered the most fantasy points passing (85.5) and fourth most rushing (24.2) to opposing quarterbacks. With several avenues to success, Fields elevates to a top-5 positional ranking this week.
Others to like: Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (at Cincinnati Bengals); Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Washington Commanders).
Matchup to avoid: Bo Nix, Denver Broncos (at Philadelphia Eagles). While the Eagles have had their share of defensive lapses — they’ve allowed four passing touchdowns of 40-plus yards, twice as many as the next-closest team — on the whole they’ve held quarterbacks remarkably quiet for a team that has played 64% of its defensive snaps with a lead. All four quarterbacks the Eagles have faced average at least 18 fantasy points per game for the season, but they averaged 15.7 in those matchups. Nix has averaged 16.6, but he has also largely played to his matchups, averaging 23.0 points in above-average matchups but 10.1 against below-average ones (two games for each). Expect a quieter output from him this week.
Running backs
Matchups highlight: Woody Marks, Houston Texans (at Baltimore Ravens). He enjoyed a mini-breakthrough in Week 4, handling nine of the Texans’ final 16 carries while pacing the team in targets (4) and receptions (3) during the same time span, seemingly overtaking Nick Chubb on the team’s backfield depth chart. If that’s the case, Marks lines up brilliantly for a matchup against the mightily struggling Ravens, who have allowed three 20 PPR fantasy point performances and seven 10 point scores to individual running backs already. The Chiefs’ similarly committee-oriented backfield totaled 25.1 points on 30 touches against this defense in Week 4.
Others to like: Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints (versus New York Giants); Breece Hall, Jets (versus Cowboys).
Matchup to avoid: Jordan Mason, Minnesota Vikings (at Cleveland Browns). He has been serviceable (at the least) in his two games filling in for Aaron Jones Sr. His 33.8 fantasy points in those games are 14th best among running backs, and he’s done so playing 62% of the offensive snaps and totaling 35 touches (tied for 19th at the position). Unfortunately, the opposing Browns have been the toughest matchup for running backs thus far, limiting Josh Jacobs to 12.4 fantasy points in Week 3 and the Jahmyr Gibbs/David Montgomery combination to 18.9 last week. The game is trending toward having the lowest over/under all season (36.5 to begin the week), which only further indicates it is a matchup to avoid.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs (at Jacksonville Jaguars). After missing each of the previous two weeks and all but three snaps of Week 1, Worthy roared right back into fantasy prominence on Sunday, playing 59% of the offensive snaps and leading all Chiefs receivers in targets (8) and receiving yards (83) while recording the team’s two longest catches (37 and 28 yards). His quick return to No. 1 status in the offense times perfectly with one of his most favorable matchups of the season. Jaguars CBs Tyson Campbell and Travis Hunter have struggled, affording the nearest receiver a combined 82.8 fantasy points through four games, per Next Gen Stats, and the team has surrendered 13 catches and four touchdown receptions of 20-plus yards.
Others to like: Garrett Wilson, Jets (vs. Cowboys); Ladd McConkey, Chargers (vs. Commanders); Keon Coleman, Buffalo Bills (vs. New England Patriots).
Matchup to avoid: Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars (versus Chiefs). One of fantasy’s biggest disappointments thus far, Thomas has played 85% of the offensive snaps, has a 23% target share and two end zone targets … and has only 36.0 fantasy points to show for it, 42nd among wide receivers. His quiet season seems likely to extend for at least another week, considering the Chiefs’ elite cornerback play thus far. CBs Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson have allowed only 50.9 points on 40 targets over 270 combined coverage snaps as the nearest defender, per Next Gen Stats, and the Chiefs as a team held Malik Nabers and A.J. Brown beneath 10 points in the past two weeks.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: Dalton Kincaid, Bills (vs. Patriots). He’s quickly shaping up as a touchdown-dependent fantasy player, ranking sixth among tight ends in fantasy points (49.9) despite a 15% target share largely because he has three touchdowns. This, however, is a good week to bet on him padding said touchdown total. The opposing Patriots have struggled against the pass, particularly when they have safeties or linebackers covering the opposing tight end. Through four games, they’ve allowed 49.3 of 60.2 points to the position in those coverage situations. The Patriots also surrendered 26.5 points combined to Tommy Tremble and Mitchell Evans last week.
Matchup to avoid: T.J. Hockenson, Vikings (at Browns). Though he has totaled 23.8 fantasy points in his two games working with Carson Wentz, his 16% target share during that time is of concern from a workload perspective. Throw in this tough-as-nails matchup, and Hockenson is a player to avoid. The Browns have faced Mark Andrews, Tucker Kraft and Sam LaPorta the past three weeks, held each of them beneath seven points and limited the trio to a combined 14.2 points.