ESPN Eliminator Challenge is one of the most fun games to play this NFL season. The rules are simple: pick one team, and as long as it wins (or ties), you advance to the next round. If it loses, you are out. The caveat is you cannot pick the same team twice. If you’ve made it this far, give yourself a pat on the back.
Week 5 finally featured the chaos Eliminator Challenge is typically known for. Three of the five biggest favorites lost last week, making it the first time since 2015 that three favorites of at least 7 points lost outright. The Arizona Cardinals were the most popular pick last week, and they blew a 15-point fourth-quarter lead, made more possible by Emari Demercado’s early celebration just before going in for a touchdown, which resulted in a fumble out of the end zone.
The Cardinals were also the top choice in this column last week. However, since this column used the Cardinals in Week 2, we pivoted to the Detroit Lions, one of the few big favorites to actually win.
Overall, there were nine upsets in Week 5, the most in any week since 2022. Those upsets knocked out more than half of the remaining entries in Eliminator Challenge, the most eliminations in any week this season.
Spinning ahead to Week 6, there is one obvious selection — the Green Bay Packers hosting the Cincinnati Bengals. The Packers are the second-biggest favorites all season. That will likely make them the most popular choice, but unlike the Buffalo Bills two weeks ago, there is less incentive to save the Packers for later.
Mike Clay’s Eliminator Challenge cheat sheet
This is the second-most-lopsided matchup the rest of the season, according to ESPN Analytics. While the Packers have two future matchups that stand out in Week 9 (vs. Panthers) and Week 11 (at Giants), they are significantly bigger favorites this week, especially according to Mike Clay’s model. Clay gives the Packers a 91% chance to win this week, compared to 69% and 68% chances against the Panthers and Giants, respectively. While the Packers will be nice to save for those weeks, it’s hard to find a better spot for them than at home off a bye against one of the worst teams on paper. Just expect them to be more popular in higher-stakes contests than they are as of Tuesday (21%).
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Mike Clay chance to win: 91%
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ESPN Analytics chance to win: 81%
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ESPN BET line: Packers -14.5 (-1600 money line)
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Eliminator Challenge: 21% selected
This is tied for the second-most-lopsided spread of the week, as the Jets are the only winless team remaining in the NFL this season. The big decision with Denver is which week do you want to use them? They host the Giants next week, the Cowboys in Week 8, and they face the Raiders in Weeks 10 and 14. The Broncos are a fine choice this week, but they have similar future value as Green Bay, except they are much smaller favorites to win this week.
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Mike Clay chance to win: 86%
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ESPN Analytics chance to win: 71%
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ESPN BET line: Broncos -7.5 (-400 money line)
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Eliminator Challenge: 17% selected
This is the third-easiest game remaining for the Eagles on paper behind only Week 8 (home vs. Giants) and Week 15 (home vs. Raiders), so they are another strong option, even in a road division game. However, after playing the toughest strength of schedule so far according to ESPN Analytics, they have been barely picked in most contests, so they are early chalk. If you have already used the Colts, lean towards saving the Eagles, as those two teams appear to be the two best options in Week 8.
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Mike Clay chance to win: 78%
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ESPN Analytics chance to win: 75%
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ESPN BET line: Eagles -6.5 (-380 money line)
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Eliminator Challenge: 25% selected
Mike Clay’s model is high on the Colts, making them tied for his third-biggest favorites of the week. This is the second-easiest remaining Colts game of the season behind Week 8 (home vs. Titans), so if you have already used the Eagles, lean toward saving the Colts. Indianapolis is top 5 in the NFL in both offensive and defensive EPA per play, so the Colts have played every bit as well as their 4-1 record would indicate. A home game against the Cardinals at likely low selection is an appealing choice.
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Mike Clay chance to win: 78%
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ESPN Analytics chance to win: 65%
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ESPN BET line: Colts -6.5 (-320 money line)
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Eliminator Challenge: 2% selected
The models don’t like the Steelers as much as the teams ahead of them on this list. However, historical trends love Pittsburgh in this spot. The Steelers have won 21 consecutive home games against the Browns, the second-longest winning streak of its kind in NFL history. They have also won eight straight games after a bye week, the second-longest active streak in the NFL. Ultimately, they fall to fifth because of their future value. They have two more games against the Bengals (Weeks 7 and 11), as well as a home game against the Dolphins in December (Week 15).
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Mike Clay chance to win: 72%
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ESPN Analytics chance to win: 64%
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ESPN BET line: Steelers -5.5 (-270 money line)
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Eliminator Challenge: 11% selected
The Rams are tied for the second-biggest favorites of the week based on the betting odds. However, both Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics models are low on the Rams compared to the odds. Los Angeles is being picked in only 1% of entries as of Tuesday evening, so if that holds, the Rams become more appealing. But once Lamar Jackson is officially ruled out, expect more players to select the Rams, which is enough to pivot to one of the other options on this list.
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Mike Clay chance to win: 62%
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ESPN Analytics chance to win: 58%
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ESPN BET line: Rams -7.5 (-400 money line)
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Eliminator Challenge: 1% selected