Blue Jays vs. Mariners odds, prediction, line: ALCS Game 1 picks from proven model

A surprising 2025 ALCS gets underway Sunday when the Toronto Blue Jays take on the Seattle Mariners as the 2025 MLB playoff field has narrowed to four. Seattle was a +2500 longshot to win the World Series in the spring, while Toronto was +6000, so both teams have defied the odds making it this far. Bryce Miller will get the start for Seattle, while Toronto counters with Kevin Gausman.

First pitch from Rogers Centre in Toronto is set for 8:03 p.m. ET. Toronto is a -163 favorite (risk $163 to win $100) on the money line in Game 1, while Seattle is the +136 underdog in the latest Blue Jays vs. Mariners odds. The over/under for total runs is 8.5. Before making any Mariners vs. Blue Jays picks, be sure to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model. 

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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters the second week of the 2025 MLB playoffs a profitable 35-29 on top-rated MLB money-line picks this season. It has excelled making home run prop picks this season, returning nearly 30 units of profit. Anybody following its MLB betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Blue Jays vs. Mariners and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Mariners vs. Blue Jays:

Why the Mariners can win

Catcher Cal Raleigh had a dominant regular season, and he’s followed that up with an electric postseason. Raleigh is hitting .381 in the 2025 MLB playoffs with a 1.051 OPS, a home run and four RBI. He leads the team with 12 total bases. He’s carried the offense in the postseason thus far, but Seattle has even more upside if a few more bats can get going.

The Mariners have gotten very little from big bats like Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodriguez and Eugenio Suarez thus far in the playoffs. If they can just return close to regular-season norms, Seattle will be an extremely tough team to beat in Game 1 on Sunday. See which team to back at SportsLine.

Why the Blue Jays can win

Gausman has been a steady hand for Toronto in recent years, posting four straight seasons with an ERA of 3.83 or better. His 1.06 WHIP this season is the best of his Toronto tenure. He was impressive in his one postseason outing thus far, giving up just four hits and one run against the Yankees in 5.2 innings of work in a win last Saturday.

While Seattle has been anchored by one extremely hot bat, the Blue Jays have three players who are mashing in the postseason. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Dalton Varsho and Ernie Clement all have an OPS of .929 or higher and at least 13 total bases. Catcher Alejandro Kirk also has a pair of home runs, giving Toronto several potential power sources for the ALCS.  See which team to back at SportsLine. 

How to make Blue Jays vs. Mariners picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting nine runs, and it says one side of the money line has all the value. You can head to SportsLine to see the model’s MLB picks. 

So who wins Blue Jays vs. Mariners, and which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.