MINNOWS San Marino could be handed a free pass to the World Cup play-offs.
But only if they are absolutely HAMMERED in their final qualifying group match.
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The ridiculous mathematical quirk that can benefit what is officially the world’s WORST international side is an unintended consequence of Uefa’s qualification process to determine the 16 European sides on duty in the USA, Canada and Mexico next summer.
England can become Europe’s first qualifier with a win in Latvia tomorrow, securing their place as one of the 12 group winners.
All 12 runners up automatically make the play-offs in March, where they will be joined by four teams from the Nations League campaign that finished last November.
And that is where the unlikely door has opened up to the team ranked 210th of the 210 active sides in Fifa’s world rankings.
Uefa’s ordering of sides from the Nations League prioritises the group winners across all four leagues.
It means San Marino, who won their League D group by picking up seven points from home and away games against Gibraltar and Liechtenstein, stand in 14th place.
The sides that qualify automatically either directly for the World Cup or the play-offs are stripped from the Nations League calculations.
As things stand this morning, it means Uefa would not include England, Spain, Portugal, France, Norway, Czechia, North Macedonia or Northern Ireland in the Nations League qualifiers.
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It would leave Wales – who still harbour hopes of topping their group but are third ahead of this evening’s battle with Belgium – Romania, Sweden and Moldova as the lucky losers quartet, with San Marino just missing.
But San Marino’s final qualifier is against Romania, who are three points behind their next opponents, Bosnia, with an inferior goal difference.
However, the Bosnians’ final game is at likely group winners Austria – surprisingly defeated in Bucharest on Sunday evening.
So if Romania avoid defeat in Zeneca next month but then make up what would be a three goal difference disadvantage while Bosnia lose in Vienna, they would leapfrog into second place in the group.
If Romania were to win their penultimate game, then San Marino would know plunging to another heavy defeat would be in their best interests.
Romania finishing second would free up their Nations League spot in the play-offs.
And, if every other team stays where it is at the moment, propel San Marino, who have so far lost every game, scored a solitary goal and conceded 32, into the play-offs instead.
It is likely that the tables will change between now and the end of next month’s final round of games – and needs Romania to avoid defeat in Bosnia to be more than just a hypothetical calculation.
Yet as it stands, losing – as normal – could be the ultimate win for the world’s worst team.