Carson Beck & Co. have found a groove, and Miami’s defense looks elite. Even though the Hurricanes occasionally ease up late, we like them to keep Louisville in check throughout Friday’s game.
Photo By – Imagn Images. Miami QB Carson Beck (11) scans the field before throwing.
The Louisville Cardinals are coming off a bye week following their first loss of the season and now travel to South Beach to take on the undefeated Miami Hurricanes, who are also coming off a bye, on Friday, October 17.
My early Louisville vs. Miami predictions and college football picks expect the Canes to emphatically stay unbeaten.
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Louisville vs Miami predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Louisville vs Miami spread pick: Miami -13.5
-115 at FanDuel
After a hot start, the Louisville Cardinals have struggled in each of their first two ACC games. They were down 27-17 at halftime to Pitt before closing the game on a 17-0 run. They needed another big comeback the following week against Virginia, but were unable to pull it off, losing in overtime.
They lost that game despite winning 383-237 in total yardage. Coughing up the ball was a major issue after they relied heavily on winning the turnover battle to beat Pitt the week before. Meanwhile, the Miami Hurricanes have dominated that arena this season with nine takeaways to only three giveaways.
Louisville will not be able to run the ball against this vaunted Miami defense either. The Cards rank 112th in the country, averaging 115.0 yards on the ground per game. The Canes rank 14th, allowing only 87.4 rushing yards per contest. Only Florida State has cracked the century mark on the ground against Miami this season, and it took 38 carries to do so.
Carson Beck and Malachi Toney have really found their groove recently, and they should continue that connection against the Cards. I just don’t see Louisville scoring enough to keep this game competitive, and I love the Canes to win big.
Early Louisville vs Miami total pick: Under 52.5
-115 at FanDuel
Even though the Canes gave up 22 points to Florida State, almost all of that came in garbage time late in the fourth quarter. The Seminoles had only three points through 3+ quarters.
The only other team to score more than 12 points on this Miami defense was Notre Dame in the season opener. However, much like Florida State, the Irish did all their scoring late in the fourth, after totaling just seven points through three quarters.
The Cardinals have been able to score this year, but they have not faced a defense that even sniffs this Miami unit. The previous best defense they faced was Pitt, and the Panthers have allowed 31+ points three times this season.
Once Miami gets up big, it typically lets its feet off the gas. However, after giving up late scores in its two biggest games of the season, I don’t expect a repeat. This game feels a lot more like a game that will finish in the low 40s for a total.
Louisville vs Miami odds
- Louisville vs. Miami spread: Miami -13.5
- Louisville vs. Miami moneyline: Louisville +430, Miami -600
- Louisville vs. Miami Over/Under: 52.5
How to watch Louisville vs Miami
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