The American League Championship Series will resume on Wednesday night with Game 3 between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners took the first two games of this best-of-seven set, leaving them two victories away from their first World Series appearance. The Blue Jays, conversely, must now win at least two games on the road to force the series back home to Toronto for potential Games 6 and 7.
To run the risk of stating the obvious: the Blue Jays are in a bad way. Historically, MLB teams that have fallen behind 2-0 in a best-of-seven series have then lost that series more than 80% of the time. The Blue Jays can’t worry too much about precedent, though, not if they want to beat the odds. They have to focus on what’s in front of them and, bit by bit, get back into this series beginning with Game 3.
“Always going to have optimism about this team,” Toronto manager John Schneider said after Game 2. “They just made more swings than us the last two games is kind of what it comes down to.”
Whatever you make of the Blue Jays’ chances, here are three keys for them to salvage the series.
1. Get Guerrero, offense going
The Blue Jays ranked fourth in the majors in runs scored and park-adjusted offense during the regular season. You wouldn’t know it based on the first two games. Toronto as a whole has hit .131/.232/.197 with just two extra-base hits (a double and a home run) and four total runs scored.
“Do what we’ve done all year. I think just looking at the difference in these first two, you know, slug hasn’t been there for us, has been there for them, and you never know when it’s going to turn. They’ve got a good pitching staff. They’re featuring some good stuff,” Schneider said of his offense. “I thought today was way better than yesterday, obviously, and we hit some balls hard. I want these guys to continue to feel like they’re on the attack; you know what I mean? It’s what we’ve done this entire season.
“Hopefully the luck turns, and hopefully the slug shows up when we get there.”
Notable Blue Jays offensive performers
Those struggles, naturally, have enveloped most of the lineup. The two exceptions have been outfielders Nathan Lukes and George Springer, who have combined for five of their eight hits (including the aforementioned extra-base hits, both of which belong to Springer). Anthony Santander is the only other Blue Jays player with an OPS above .400. Otherwise? The Blue Jays have five players, including superstar first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who are hitless through four or more at-bats.
Guerrero is, obviously, the highest profile player of the bunch. He’s the one with the $500 million contract, and his name and image are in most of the promotional material. So far, the Mariners have peppered him with sinkers away, even from right-handed pitchers. In fact, the next time in this series that Guerrero puts a ball in play that is thrown to the inner half of the plate, it will also be the first time.
Clearly, that approach is working. It’s up to Guerrero to adjust ahead of Game 3.
2. Figure out Polanco
You shouldn’t envy the task facing Toronto’s pitching staff. For all the attention the Blue Jays have undoubtedly paid to switch-hitting catcher Cal Raleigh and outfielder Julio Rodríguez in pregame meetings, it’s been second baseman Jorge Polanco who has given them the most trouble in Games 1 and 2.
Polanco opened the series with consecutive two-hit games. What’s more, he’s plated the go-ahead run in both contests, including launching a three-run shot in the fifth on Monday.
“That was just a great at-bat, getting in there and just doing what Polo does. He waits to get a good pitch and he puts a really good swing on it, and he’s a tough out right now,” Mariners manager Dan Wilson said after Game 2. “It’s been huge for us, and he’s come up in situations where we’ve had guys on, and he’s been able to do the job and drive them in. That’s what this game is all about. It’s been phenomenal.”
Three of Polanco’s four hits so far have been against fastballs that clocked in at 96 mph or above. He also recorded a single on a first-pitch curveball in the late stages of Game 2.
3. Get lucky
Luck is often treated as a four-letter word in analysis, but let’s face it: the Blue Jays are going to need to catch their share of breaks to pull even or overtake the Mariners the rest of the way. What that looks like depends on your imagination. It could mean a few seeing-eye singles, or it could mean catching some at ’em balls off the Mariners bats.
One obvious alternate possibility? Having Seattle ace Bryan Woo, seemingly in line to start Game 5, experience some rust in his return to the mound. Woo, 25, was one of the Mariners’ top performers during the regular season. He hasn’t pitched since Sept. 19 on account of a pectoral injury. It’s not hard to envision a scenario where he isn’t as sharp as usual in what will double as his postseason debut.
But Woo’s Game 5 start isn’t a given because there are no guarantees the series will last that long. For now, the Blue Jays can only focus on what’s in front of them. Everything else is contingent on that.