The goal of this regression-centric space is to tell fantasy football folks which of their borderline fantasy options are running particularly hot or particularly cold, to use a little technical language.
Every week during the regular season I’ll highlight players whose usage and opportunity doesn’t quite match their production. That might look like a running back scoring touchdowns at an unsustainable clip or a pass catcher putting up big stat lines while working as a rotational player in his offense. It could also look like a pass catcher seeing gobs of air yards and targets without much to show for it. Things of that nature.
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Some stats I’ll focus on weekly in the Regression Files: Rush yards over expected, targets per route, air yards, air yards per target, red zone targets, green zone targets, quarterback touchdown rate, and expected touchdowns. A lot of this regression stuff, as you probably know, comes down to touchdowns — specifically, predicting touchdowns (or lack thereof).
I’ll (mostly) ignore every-week fantasy options who you’re going to play whether they’re running hot or cold, or somewhere in between. My goal is to make this column as actionable as possible for all fantasy formats. Telling you to keep playing Jahmyr Gibbs during a cold streak doesn’t strike me as particularly actionable.
I thought we’d start today with a close look at which running backs are due for regression near the end zone after six weeks. I’ve focused on carries inside the ten yard line, or the green zone, along with teams’ pass rate over expected in the green zone, also known as the lower red zone, also known as the Money Zone, things of that nature.
Running Back Carries Inside The Ten (Touchdowns)
Jonathan Taylor: 20 (6)
Josh Jacobs: 14 (4)
Christian McCaffrey: 13 (1)
Cam Skattebo: 12 (4)
David Montgomery: 12 (3)
Jahmyr Gibbs: 11 (4)
Zach Charbonnet: 11 (3)
Saquon Barkley: 11 (2)
Quinshon Judkins: 11 (2)
Javonte Williams: 9 (4)
Derrick Henry: 9 (1)
Rhamondre Stevenson: 9 (2)
Kyren Williams: 8 (2)
JK Dobbins: 8 (2)
Ashton Jeanty: 8 (2)
Jaylen Warren: 8 (0)
Rico Dowdle: 7 (2)
Chase Brown: 7 (1)
Kareem Hunt: 7 (3)
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◆ Back in the old days (2017) you would have been able to easily acquire Derrick Henry in a pre-bye week trade in hopes of the good kind of regression hitting hard in the season’s second half. Lamar Jackson is expected to be back in Week 8 and Henry’s usage is as strong as it was in 2024. He’s seeing 71 percent of Baltimore’s inside-the-ten rushes, and he’s been unlucky on inside-the-five opportunities, converting seven of those carries into one measly touchdown. Fantasy nerds are probably too savvy today to part with Henry with all this data at their greedy little fingertips. But if you can get Henry, do it now. The touchdown stuff will work itself out. This is analytics.
◆ You gotta hand it to the Seahawks for committing to the bit. Zach Charbonnet, who’s probably the worst running back in the NFL, continues working as the main goal line guy over Ken Walker, whose backers are sucking down dangerous amounts of copium after six weeks. Walker, in case you’re wondering, has two touchdowns on five inside-the-ten rushes. He’s converted both of his inside-the-five attempts for TDs. It’s a good bit the Hawks have going with Charbs. Until they give it up, Walker won’t have many chances at the plunge-in sort of touchdowns. Whoever gets that gig should have lots of opportunity, as no team has a lower pass rate over expected than Seattle inside the ten yard line this season.
◆ Quinshon Judkins is losing out to Jerome Ford in the two-minute offense, which the Browns use a lot since they stink and have no hope of being good in this or any century. They are extremely run-first near the end zone though: Only four teams have a lower pass rate over expected inside the ten yard line. That should mean Judkins will have weekly touchdown equity if the Browns can maintain decent game script.
◆ Kenneth Gainwell has been way better than Jaylen Warren where it counts the most. I doubt this has been lost on Mike Tomlin, who has never wanted to make a player a Thing more than he wants to make Gainwell a Thing. You see Warren’s struggles above. Gainwell has scored three TDs on six inside-the-ten totes. The Steelers continue establishing it near the end zone, a win for Arthur Smith over Aaron Rodgers, who’s always enjoyed his easy touchdown tosses. Pittsburgh is 13 percent below its expected pass rate inside the ten, the third lowest rate in the league.
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◆ The Colts are the league’s third heaviest inside-the-ten offense. That might be tough for the team’s pass catchers. It should be quite fun for Jonathan Taylor and Daniel D. Dimes, who did nothing wrong in New York.
◆ Cam Skattebo is going to need consistent red zone involvement if he’s going to continue getting away with it. In a hugely run heavy Giants offense, Skattebo’s raw target numbers are (usually) not going to get him there for PPR purposes. He’s averaging 3.3 targets per game since Jaxson Dart’s Vibes Revolution in New York. The big boy touchdowns will have to continue if he’s going to be a top-15 weekly play. It’s something of a thin bet in an overall bad offense.
◆ More touchdowns should be on the way for CMC, the Guy You Needed in redraft leagues, much to my molar-grinding chagrin. He finally punched one in against the Bucs on Sunday. More should be on the way. The Niners rank 16th in pass rate over expected in the green zone.
◆ The Chiefs are 13 percent above their expected pass rate inside the ten. There won’t be a lot of high-leverage green zone rushes to go around in this offense, not even for Kareem Hunt.
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◆ Easy touchdowns for Jacksonville backs (not pictured above) are going to be hard to come by if Liam Coen continues trusting Trevor Lawrence in the red zone. The Jaguars this season are 11 percent over their expected pass rate inside the ten; only three teams are higher. Travis Etienne leads the team with four inside-the-ten carries. He does not have an inside-the-five rush.
Positive Regression Candidates
Tyjae Spears (TEN)
Calling the Titans offense a pro-level unit would be kind after six weeks of the worst, most dysfunctional football you might ever see in the NFL. Poor Cam Ward. I hope he can survive this team, and I have my doubts.
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Spears could be the rare usable Titans player in the coming weeks after his usage saw a meaningful increase in Week 6 against the Raiders. In his second game back from IR, Spears ran a route on 53 percent of the Titans’ drop backs and caught all four of his targets. Tony Pollard in Week 6 took a backseat in the pass game, running 25 percent of the routes and seeing two targets from Ward.
The (well founded) theory that the Titans will continue seeing negative game script could be significant for Spears as the primary pass catcher out of the Tennessee backfield. The Titans have posted a 70 percent pass rate while trailing this season and Ward had checked down on 10 percent of his pass attempts, a top-half rate. Close your eyes and you can see it: Spears as a legit PPR scam. You could do worse in 14-team leagues.
Troy Franklin (DEN)
In tabbing through various red zone stats and metrics, I stumbled across this: Franklin is somehow seeing 40 percent of the Broncos’ inside-the-20 targets this season (and 42 percent of Denver’s inside-the-ten looks!). That’s led to just 44 yards and one touchdown.
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Franklin over the past month has run a route on 74 percent of the team’s drop backs. He’s only seen a 15 percent target share, and he’s third in air yards, but Franklin is out there a lot and for whatever reason he’s being used where it counts the most. Eventually Franklin could make this sort of usage pay.
Davante Adams (LAR)
First, I’m not writing about Adams’ usage because Puka Nacua — the Last Good Receiver — is set to miss time for the Rams. I was going to highlight Adams’ unfortunate air yards conversion rate anyway. So there.
Playing Adams in your fantasy lineups has been less fun of late. He’s 20th in wideout receptions and 19th in wideout yards over the past three weeks. He hasn’t scored a touchdown over his past two outings — both good matchups. I’m mentioning Adams here because he’s second in the entire league in air yards and he’s being targeted on a gaudy 28 percent of his pass routes. He’ll be fine, with or without Nacua.
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If Puka sits, Adams’ air yards domination could mean only Jaxon Smtih-Njigba would be a better receiver option. JSN happens to be the only guy with more air yards than Adams through Week 6. We love our air yards, folks.
Michael Penix (ATL)
One would think Penix would eventually throw some touchdowns in 2025. That the Falcons came out of their bye and ran a far less predictable offense in Week 6 against Buffalo should mean more touchdowns will come for Penix and the entire Atlanta offense. That’s the working theory anyway.
Penix this season has a 2.5 percent touchdown rate, ranking 32nd out of 34 qualifying QBs (he almost had a long one to Drake London on Monday night). The structure of the Falcons offense likely means Penix will have to be giga-efficient to post solid touchdown numbers in the coming weeks: Through Week 6, Atlanta ranks 25th in pass rate over expected inside the ten and 26th in neutral pass rate. Penix is averaging a paltry 3.4 red zone pass attempts per game.
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Like I said, the efficiency is going to have to hit. It might not hurt too terribly much that the Falcons have the fourth easiest rest-of-season quarterback schedule.
NFL: Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins
Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Week 7: Kimani Vidal breaks out; Bam Knight surprises
Kimani Vidal drew the start in place of Omarion Hampton in Week 6 and broke out with an RB1 performance. He is poised for fantasy success over the next month, making him the top waiver wire add ahead of Week 7.
Negative Regression Candidates
Michael Mayer (LV)
Mayer filled in for Brock Bowers (knee) in Week 6 against the Titans and understood the assignment: Catch one touchdown. He did that, as you may know, as Mayer caught five of his seven targets for 50 yards.
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It was fine. The touchdown made it better than fine. Mayer, however, was targeted on 36 percent of his routes against Tennessee. I’m not entirely sure that kind of usage can hold up for a secondary option in a (very) run heavy offense with a quarterback who’s coming apart at the proverbial seams. Only three teams have been more run-heavy over the past three weeks. Mayer probably needs to continue hogging targets at a high rate to be startable in 12-team formats.
Kayshon Boutte (NE)
Boutte is back in our lives after vanishing for the better part of a month. We’re now forced to pay attention to Boutte after he caught five balls for 93 yards and two scores against New Orleans last week. Boutte will not be denied. So it goes.
Boutte against the Saints did that weird thing where a player turns eight expected fantasy points in 26 actual fantasy points. While he did see a hefty 31 percent of the Pats’ air yards and saw a target on 24 percent of his routes, this usage came out of nowhere. Boutte had been targeted on 12 percent of his routes and accounted for just 20 percent of the team’s air yards in the previous three games.
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New England’s total lack of a rushing attack could be a boon for Boutte, however. The Patriots have the NFL’s sixth highest pass rate over expected this season. If that keeps up, Boutte should occasionally post big numbers on 3-5 targets from the efficiency machine known as Drake Maye. Please just be careful with Boutte this week.
Dallas Goedert (PHI)
Goedert is riding high on pass volume that probably can’t last for the Eagles. Usually among the Stone Age Run Establishing offenses, the Eagles over the past two weeks have the NFL’s second highest pass rate over expected. Jalen Hurts has the fifth-most QB drop backs and fifth most pass attempts over that stretch. The Eagles, in other words, are in crisis.
That crisis has worked out just fine for Goedert, who over the past two weeks has led all tight ends in targets and ranks third in tight end receiving yards. It doesn’t hurt that he’s been targeted on 28 percent of his pass routes over this span. All four of Goedert’s inside-the-ten targets have gone for touchdowns. My interns tell me that seems unsustainable.
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Just remember that the Eagles don’t want to play this way. Through Week 3, Hurts ranked 27th in pass attempts. Philly was the league’s second run heaviest offense. If you have Goedert and another highly-involved tight end on your fantasy roster, think about this pass-heavy blip before you commit to him for the long term. Or just tell me to drop being such a dang nerd and enjoy my fantasy points.