NFL Week 7 schedule rankings: Top 5 Sunday games to help us find the good teams

The NFL breeds singular drama for all kinds of reasons, but one of the strongest pulls comes from its narrow margins. Good teams clearly differentiate themselves across a larger sample size in other sports — 38 games in English Premier League, 82 in NBA and NHL, 162 in MLB. A 17-game season makes every win momentous, but also more deceptive. A few snaps and flags can separate 3-3 from 6-0, and that’s what makes each Sunday so visceral.

Take our usual contenders. The Buffalo Bills have dropped to 4-2 after consecutive losses, and they’re sharing first place with the New England Patriots, who went 4-13 last year. Patrick Mahomes and his Chiefs are 3-3 in Kansas City, while Daniel Jones has the Colts at 5-1 in Indianapolis. Entering this weekend, two NFC division leaders have negative net points (Philadelphia Eagles at a minus-1, San Francisco 49ers at minus-3).

Week 7 gives us another chance to form impassioned opinions on precarious outcomes. We’re ranking the Sunday games by authenticating power and potential. Let us know what we might be sleeping on.

Week 7 Sunday viewing guide

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In-market CBS and Fox games are free over the air. “Sunday Night Football” is free over the air on NBC and streams on Peacock.

This Sunday’s order is a matter of preference and partiality, but the top five itself seems clear. Six of the other games involve at least one sure stinker (it’s not hard to guess the offenders). And the London game always feels like a mulligan — long travels on short weeks, low scores with high chaos. Both Monday night matchups would fit this category, but we only rate Sundays around these here parts. A tumbleweed passes during that last sentence. Look, it’s Jaxson Dart dueling Bo Nix in their [AFC] Western!

5. New York Giants (2-4) at Denver Broncos (4-2)

Sean Payton is leading a solid start, although three of the four wins are against outright bummers (New York Jets, Tennessee Titans and the Jake Browning-led Cincinnati Bengals). No one will deny a Vance Joseph defense; his latest is No. 2 in points and yards allowed while leading the league in sacks. And no one will knock the Broncos’ hustle after they put a road comeback on the defending champions. But Nix is amid something of a minor sophomore slip — dips in his completion percentage, success rate, yards per attempt and QBR. Nick Kosmider, The Athletic’s Broncos beat reporter, suggests that the offense should hasten its pace to accentuate Nix’s mobility and downfield strength. Denver’s young quarterback needs a confidence builder come Sunday.

We have to shade some soft optimism for these G-Men, who have stacked convincing wins over the Eagles and Los Angeles Chargers since installing Dart under center. He doesn’t actually stay under center that much, with at least 50 rushing yards in all three of his starts, and the emergence of him and Cam Skattebo prompts a bit of reappraisal in New York (by which we mean New Jersey). Brian Burns (seven sacks in six weeks) is a banshee off the edge. Winning in Denver is hard to do; an upset here would reintroduce the Giants with a blown-out subwoofer and one of those DJ airhorns.

4. Washington Commanders (3-3) at Dallas Cowboys (2-3-1)

The Commanders are probably good. They were 60 minutes from the Super Bowl just nine months ago, and they’re going for Mountain West numbers on the ground so far (5.5 yards per carry, second in total rushing despite 11th in attempts). Washington’s stumble against the Chicago Bears on Monday night wasn’t unforgivable, because forgiveness is important (it’s the lesson of most movies and that Dispatch song people sing in college). But three turnovers and three sacks definitely spiked the mood last time out, and the Commanders have generally looked a step off as visitors this year. Recurring injuries are also chipping away at Dan Quinn’s backward-hat dude vibes.

Asking Dallas’ defense for a stop is like asking a hot dog to recite “Journey of the Magi.” But the Cowboys are a better team under a roof and an electric current in shotgun, which keeps them in contention for each of their eight home games. It’s not whether this group is good or not … it’s whether the good outweighs the ceremony-grade humiliation that is opposing third downs.

3. Indianapolis Colts (5-1) at Los Angeles Chargers (4-2)

Bulk orders of apologies are in for Jones and Shane Steichen. Through six weeks, Indianapolis paces the NFL in points, first downs, scoring percentage and time per drive. This offense is methodical, with hulking bullies up front and a bellwether back in Jonathan Taylor. The Colts’ style is sustainable; they deserve our respect.

And … doesn’t it feel like the Colts could still turn into a pumpkin? Perhaps it’s this tall glass of Haterade that we poured, and maybe there’s a collective cynicism in the breeze. Well, if we’re already preparing those wholesale sorries, what’s one more? Indy has two wins against 1-5 teams, and two more against 2-4 ones. Jones succeeds in being vanilla, as The Athletic’s Zak Keefer writes. But that same flavor keeps us from buying all the way in after his Giant disappointments. We’re not saying the Colts aren’t very good — just that there’s a space for skepticism in mid-October. This is the time where @blueiydseth goes “Not Like Us.”

Now for the Chargers. Historically speaking, nothing is certain for this strange franchise. Remember when they had the No. 1 offense and the No. 1 defense and didn’t make the playoffs? We won’t hold prior loopiness against the 2025 version, but L.A. is hard to get a handle on right now. Justin Herbert and company opened at 3-0, then took back-to-back Ls and narrowly escaped the floundering Miami Dolphins. Their pass defense is sharp (five touchdowns to six interceptions, seventh-best in EPA per dropback), but their offensive line is overtaxed (they started fifth- and sixth-string tackles last week, per our beat writer Daniel Popper). A statement win would bring them to 5-2; a home defeat would drag them into the middle of a crowded conference.

2. Philadelphia Eagles (4-2) at Minnesota Vikings (3-2)

The Eagles are the Super Bowl champs, and they’re also in crisis. It’s what the philosophers call a dualism of tush (they do not call it that). Philly is a heavyweight on paper — trophy case pedigree, plus six incumbent All-Pros in Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, Lane Johnson, Jordan Mailata, Jalen Carter and Zack Baun. The results haven’t mapped out so neatly, though. Barkley has gone from an average of 5.8 yards per carry in 2024 to 3.4 this season. Brown is acting surly on the sideline. And the Eagles are catching spontaneous migraines on third downs, ranking just 27th in converting them and 26th in defending them.

Minnesota is abstract art, the football equivalent of Prince’s “Graffiti Bridge.” The Vikings’ two QBs have been unmolded clay J.J. McCarthy and weary traveler Carson Wentz. Their O-line has been torn apart by poor health and bad breaks. They’ve played consecutive neutral sites in Dublin and London. Who knows what to make of them?

Despite all the static, these Vikes are 12th in points per game and fifth in scoring defense. They’re also in the top eight on both sides of red zone conversion rate. We’ll learn what Kevin O’Connell and his crew are about in the weeks to come. Here’s the forthcoming stretch: hosting the Eagles, then visiting the Chargers in Inglewood and the Lions in Detroit. As of this check-in, Minnesota plays just one sub-.500 team between now and Week 14. That’s the Baltimore Ravens, who will likely have Lamar Jackson back for that one.

1. Atlanta Falcons (3-2) at San Francisco 49ers (4-2)

On Sept. 21, the ATLiens were stomped by the Carolina Panthers: 30-0 when the dust settled. Then they beat two teams that reached last season’s conference championships (Commanders and Bills). No team is averaging more rushing yards, yet they are just 27th in points per game. It looks like the Falcons finally have a baller defense, which is tough to believe considering their decade-long search for one. After four straight finishes at either 8-9 or 7-10, we need to see a definitive break toward the top before we invest.

The Niners are irrefutably tough. Losing Fred Warner to a broken and dislocated ankle seems excessively cruel. The starters are already down Nick Bosa (season-ending ACL tear). They’ve had to patch up absences from Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall, George Kittle and Jauan Jennings. And Brandon Aiyuk is still unable to suit up. Our questions around San Francisco are centered on availability and integration. Purdy has been practicing this week, and Kittle is expected to return Sunday. We know that the 49ers are good at full strength. A prime-time improvement to 5-2 would establish them as good without qualification. The 40 Water will deliver us to lucidity on Sunday night.

Updated Week 7 odds

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