In the Week 7 edition of “Sunday Night Football,” the San Francisco 49ers play host to the Atlanta Falcons.
San Francisco comes into this game having lost two of its last three. The 49ers are starting backup quarterback Mac Jones, who will be making his fifth appearance in seven games in place of Brock Purdy. The Niners are getting somewhat healthier with the return of star tight end George Kittle, but they also remain banged up on both sides of the ball thanks to numerous injuries to their offensive skill-position corps and the dual losses of Nick Bosa and Fred Warner on defense. They’re in first place in the NFC West at the moment, but also in danger of falling behind due to their health issues.
Atlanta is coming off one of the most impressive wins of the season, having defeated the Bills on Monday night. The Falcons, who improved to 3-2 with that victory, have been powered by a surprisingly-effective defense complemented by the Bijan Robinson’s-led run game. Atlanta is looking to keep pace in the NFC South with the 5-1 Buccaneers, and needs to continue stacking wins in order to do so.
Will the Niners bounce back, or will the Falcons pull off another upset? We’ll find out soon enough. But before we break down the matchup, here’s a look at how you can watch the game.
Where to watch 49ers vs. Falcons live
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 19 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Location: Levi’s Stadium — Santa Clara, California
- TV: NBC | Stream: Fubo (try for free)
- Follow: CBS Sports App
- Odds: 49ers -2.5; O/U 47.5 (via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Bet 49ers vs. Buccaneers and other NFL games at DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets and three free months of NBA League Pass.
When the Falcons have the ball
Atlanta’s offense has strong overall numbers — the Falcons are second in the NFL in total yards per game — but has been inconsistent and also struggled to score. The Falcons’ 20 points per game is sixth-lowest in the league.
A lot of that is because they got shut out in Week 3 against the Panthers, but they’ve also just been inconsistent in areas where you need to be consistent in order to score: They’ve turned just seven of their 16 red-zone trips into touchdowns, giving them the sixth-lowest red-zone conversion rate in the league. They’ve instead been somewhat dependent on big plays to generate end-zone trips: Robinson’s two touchdowns of 50 or more yards account for 20% of Atlanta’s total offensive scores.
Michael Penix Jr. has been a primary source of inconsistency. He was dreadful in that game against Carolina, averaging 4.8 yards per attempt and throwing a pair of interceptions. He didn’t play well against the Vikings in Week 2, either. But he did well to go shot-for-shot with Baker Mayfield in Week 1, looked good except for an interception against the Commanders in Week 4 and handled himself quite nicely last week against the Bills. Depending on which Penix you get in any given week, that can go a long way toward determining what this Atlanta offense looks like.
The basis of the offense, though, remains the run game. Robinson has finally added the explosive plays to go with his sparkling efficiency, and he’s now averaging 5.8 yards per carry on the year. Among the 36 running backs with 50-plus carries, Robinson ranks seventh in rushing success rate, via Tru Media, as well as second in the share of his runs that gained five or more yards (44.6%) and first in both avoided-tackle rate and yards after contact per attempt.
The 49ers rank 19th in rushing success rate allowed, per Tru Media, but they’ve done a good job of limiting yards after contact thanks to mostly strong tackling. If they can keep Robinson to medium gains rather than allowing large chunks when he sheds tackles, they have a chance to somewhat contain the rushing attack.
With Warner out, the area over the middle of the field should be easier to attack in the passing game. That’s the area the Falcons like to attack with in-breaking routes, especially with Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts. We don’t yet know whether Darnell Mooney, who missed last week’s game, will play after he was limited in practice all week. London is likely to be heavily targeted either way, but if Mooney is out, he could be a target vacuum as he has been for Penix whenever the No. 2 receiver has missed time.
San Francisco is 30th in opponents’ passing success rate, so the Falcons should have some opportunities to get going through the air here.
When the 49ers have the ball
Atlanta’s defense has been one of the biggest surprises of the season.
Expected to be one of the worst units in the NFL, the Falcons have instead been one of the best. They check in first in yards allowed per game, seventh in points allowed per game, first in FTN’s DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) and tied for fifth in EPA per play at Tru Media. Basically, they have been a clear-cut top-five unit.
The strength of the unit has been against the pass, where the Falcons have allowed the third-lowest opponents’ success rate. Atlanta has shockingly registered a 41.8% pressure rate that ranks sixth-best in the NFL, and has done it by blitzing like crazy: defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich has sent extra rushers on a preposterous 48.7% of opponent dropbacks, per Tru Media.
Those blitzes have also been ultra-effective: when they’ve blitzed, the Falcons allowed only a 54.8% completion rate and 6.4 yards per attempt, and they’ve given up explosive plays at half the league-average rate.
In this game, the Falcons will be going up against San Francisco backup Mac Jones. Jones has been effective filling in for Brock Purdy this season, completing 67.3% of his passes at an average of 7.5 yards per attempt, with six touchdowns and three interceptions in his four games.
He has, though, been highly susceptible to pressure, which is not surprising given his history. He’s eighth in EPA per dropback from a clean pocket, via Tru Media, and 31st (out of 34 qualifiers) when under pressure. And again, the Falcons have gotten pressure at one of the highest rates in the league. Jones himself has only been pressured 29.1% of the time, the third-lowest rate in the NFL, because he’s been getting the ball out in an average of just 2.62 seconds.
If he can get the ball out before the rush has a chance to get home, he can potentially find some success here. But Atlanta’s coverage unit has been sticky, which has in turn played into that high pressure rate. If the Falcons can muddy the pocket, they have a chance to force Jones into a bad game.
While the Falcons have been stingy through the air, they have been highly vulnerable on the ground. They’re second-to-last (ahead of only the Cowboys) in opponents’ rushing success rate, via Tru Media, and have yielded 4.8 yards per carry. A lot of that has been about yards before contact, which is unsurprising given the body types the Falcons have up front (lighter and faster as opposed to bigger and stronger). Opponents are averaging 1.89 yards before contact per attempt.
Unfortunately for the Niners, they have been extremely unsuccessful running the ball this season. Christian McCaffrey is averaging a mere 3.1 yards per tote and has only one rushing score. His best game on the ground saw him average 4.2 yards a pop against the Saints back in Week 2. Fortunately for San Francisco, help is on the way. Kittle is the best blocking tight end in the NFL and a key piece in making the team’s run game work. If he’s healthy enough to play, he should be healthy enough to help get the run game going here against a unit that is very soft against the run.
Prediction
The Falcons do have some matchup advantages here, particularly in the run game on offense. But their excellent defense does have some potential areas that it can be exploited, particularly if you can get the ball out quickly and scheme playmakers into open space. Few play-callers do that better than Kyle Shanahan, and the combination of McCaffrey and Kittle working over the middle of the field can make some stuff happen. If the Niners can limit Robinson’s explosive runs, I like them to pull this one out at home.
Pick: 49ers 23, Falcons 20