California is lucky to be 5-2, and Virginia Tech is getting healthy at the right time. The Hokies will expose the Golden Bears while this game stays Under the 49.5-point total.
Photo By – Imagn Images. Virginia Tech QB Kyron Drones (1) runs toward the sideline.
The California Golden Bears hope to show their 5-2 record isn’t a fluke when it travels cross-country to face the Virginia Tech Hokies in a Friday night ACC showdown.
My California vs Virginia Tech predictions explain why the Bears’ record might be a house of mirrors, and a much-needed bye week for the Hokies could be just what they needed to deal with the injuries that had piled up in the early season.
Here are our early college football picks for Friday, October 24.
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California vs Virginia Tech predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early California vs Virginia Tech spread pick: Virginia Tech -4.5
-110 at FanDuel
I know the California Golden Bears are 5-2, but it’s the fakest 5-2 you’ll find. One of those wins came via an interception in the end zone in the final seconds to hang on against Boston College — a team that hasn’t yet beaten an FBS opponent. Similarly, the Bears got their first win against an Oregon State team that is winless against FBS teams.
Another came this weekend against a North Carolina squad that is in contention for one of the worst power conference seasons of all time. The Tar Heels went across the country and were inches away from taking the lead with about four minutes to go before the Bears forced a fumble to save the day.
Now, the Bears travel across the country themselves and take on a rested Virginia Tech Hokies team. And that is important, because the Hokies desperately needed a break.
Injuries have been a huge hindrance, and Philip Montgomery hopes to have some important players back. The Hokies have looked much better and shown increased levels of competition since he took over, and Kyron Drones, in particular, has improved at quarterback.
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is a turnover machine when pressured, and Virginia Tech has a solid pass rush. The Hokies will force a few turnovers, and their rushing attack will carry them to victory.
Early California vs Virginia Tech total pick: Under 49.5
-110 at FanDuel
One area where Virginia Tech needs to improve quickly is in limiting penalties that stall out drives. The Hokies run the ball very well, but they continuously put themselves behind the chains with poorly timed penalties. It’s a key factor as to why they’re averaging just 2.80 points per quality drive.
Cal is doing better with converting strong drives to points, but it’s not getting many of them. The Bears rank 99th in quality drive rate behind an offense that isn’t particularly good at anything, and are pretty bad at running the ball and taking care of it.
If the Hokies can move the ball on the ground, they’ll shorten this game quite a bit. Virginia Tech ranks Top 25 in EPA/rush and 28th in rushing success rate, and will execute if they cut out the silly mistakes.
The Bears scored just 21 points against UNC and 28 against Boston College. That same UNC team allowed 34+ to all three of its other power conference opponents. And after a 21-7 start against Duke, Cal never scored again.
Neither offense is posting explosive plays consistently, and both are prone to shooting themselves in the foot. I’ll take the Under here.
California vs Virginia Tech odds
- California vs. Virginia Tech spread: Virginia Tech -4.5
- California vs. Virginia Tech moneyline: California +160, Virginia Tech -194
- California vs. Virginia Tech Over/Under: 49.5
How to watch California vs Virginia Tech
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