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Good morning! Hi, basketball.
While You Were Sleeping: Springer’s dinger secures a pennant
Before we begin, I just want to note how bold this was:
DAAAAAAAAAAAA MVP!!! @BlueJays pic.twitter.com/Y2VkYsEV2e
— Toronto Maple Leafs (@MapleLeafs) October 21, 2025
That’s Blue Jays star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. walking into the stadium wearing a Toronto Maple Leafs sweater, supporting the team infamous for choking in Game 7s. Was he a fool?
- Thanks to George Springer, no. While Guerrero went 1-for-4 last night, it was Springer’s monster three-run home run in the seventh that won the game (and the series) for the Blue Jays. Toronto 4, Seattle 3.
- The win propels Toronto to its first World Series since 1993. It is an incredible story — a team no one really considered for this despite a talented roster. The Blue Jays’ path here was fraught.
The Los Angeles Dodgers, a team made of howitzers, await. We have a preview of that series published already. Game 1 is Friday.
Let’s keep moving:
Numbers: A new tool for NFL nerds
After that chaotic Sunday, last night’s doubleheader felt a little more … predictable. Detroit flexed in prime time against the charmed Buccaneers, 24-9. The nightcap saw a punchy Seattle team easily outpace the cursed Texans, 27-19.
Both the Lions and Seahawks are legit playoff teams at the moment. Which brings us to our new toy: an interactive playoff simulator, powered by data wizard Austin Mock’s proprietary formula, which may be the coolest projection tool The Athletic has ever produced. Fun stats from it to really emphasize the chaos in all this football:
- Highest chance to make the playoffs through seven weeks: Colts (96 percent), Patriots (92), Bills (90), Packers (87), Eagles (86) and Chiefs (86). Just like we all planned.
- On the flip side, biggest eyebrow-raisers: Ravens (41 percent), Bengals (13), Vikings (10) and Commanders (9). Imagine if none of those teams make it. Mind-boggling to my August self.
You can play with the numbers based on game results the rest of the way. Here’s a totally unbiased view of a certain team’s chances to earn the No. 1 pick:
I asked Austin to pick the funniest scenario he’s seen pop up so far:
“There are iterations of the simulator that have the New York Jets making the playoffs. And what’s wild is that they can win 10 straight games and still not be a ‘lock’ to make it.”
Don’t lose hope, Jets fans? I can’t go that far. But it’s amusing nonetheless.
Everyone can access the simulator for free on The Athletic’s app (download on Apple and Google Play). Or, check it out online here.
News to Know
Details emerge about Martin’s death
Oakland, Calif., police confirmed to The Athletic yesterday that former Buccaneers running back Doug Martin died in police custody after he “was involved in a break-in” at a residence in the area. Both Martin’s family and former agency released statements saying Martin had struggled with mental health issues, and the family had even contacted local authorities for help before the 36-year-old’s death. See our full report for more.
More news
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Sneaky: Tip off already?
The NBA season officially tips off tonight, which feels particularly sneaky as the sports world looks at the World Series and NFL hoopla. And yet important games are here nonetheless. Prepare, we must.
Two key points I want to hit before we get to the real preview gold:
- As with any NBA season, there are big names in new places. New stars ready to rise. But I keep coming back to the old guys, Steph Curry and LeBron James, who have deftly navigated longevity and health as they’ve aged. Curry will play tonight, while James is sidelined with sciatica. The dudes with a combined age of 77 will have a massive imprint on the league this year, though. It is surreal.
- Maybe the biggest new name in the league this year: NBC, new media rights deal winner, which will broadcast both games this evening (more on that below). Yes, “Roundball Rock” is coming back, and it re-enters the sport at the zenith of theme music. Welcome back, John Tesh.
Let’s zoom out, though, with Zach Harper:
You published a list of hot takes yesterday in The Bounce. Tell me which one you feel strongest about.
“Denver should be the title favorite. And that’s despite thinking defending champion Oklahoma City might win 70-plus games, and they’re better than last year.”
Yowza. Spicy. Let’s dip that in a little ranch to cool off. Give me your three most interesting teams and one sentence why:
“San Antonio, because it’s Year 3 for Victor Wembanyama and they should make the Play-In. New York, because I wonder if Mike Brown will have unlocked even more offensive excellence by midseason. The Lakers, because transitioning from LeBron to Luka Dončić will get messy.”
Perfect. We’ll have a bit more tomorrow on NBA previews. Make sure to re-up your Bounce subscription (free!) before tip-off. And check out some more bold predictions for the entire season, including a wild bet on Joel Embiid’s health.
Almost through:
What to Watch
📺 UCL: Manchester City at Villarreal
3 p.m. ET on Paramount+
Man City is in a weird spot, still elite and yet not as dominant as it was two years ago. Villarreal is no slouch, and Champions League is always entertaining. Fun afternoon.
📺 NBA: Rockets at Thunder
7:30 p.m. ET on NBC/Peacock
A wizened Kevin Durant returns to Oklahoma City with his new team to face the defending champs? Yep, yep, yep. Warriors-Lakers follows at 10 p.m. ET. Welcome back, basketball.
Get tickets to games like these here.
Pulse Picks
Noah Goldberg / USSF / Getty Images
Landon Donovan has been balding for decades. In an exclusive interview, he opened up on why he chose a hairpiece — or hair system, as it’s called — as a last resort. What he learned was a lot deeper than hair, though.
Mike Jones has strong words for the entire Commanders fan base, and the NFL at large: No, Jayden Daniels is not Washington’s next RGIII.
A legitimate fact: Collectors are hunting a rare Kyle Kendrick card that focuses on the former Phillie’s crotch. I can’t believe this is real.
Don’t forget to check Jake Ciely’s fantasy football waiver wire picks for Week 8 before it’s too late.
Most-clicked in the newsletter yesterday: Our newser on Doug Martin’s death.
Most-read on the website yesterday: Blue Jays-Mariners live blog.