Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
In this article, I highlight the top DFS game environments, factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and routes for game flows. I try to dip into some matchup-based discussions and then run with certain narratives to give you a lean early in the week of how I could see a game play out.
On Friday’s DFS & Betting Podcast, Betz and I will talk through these games, alongside adding in DFS salaries and roster percentages.
Game Pace Score
A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 10, I’ve sorted by all 32 team implied totals while focusing on seconds per play and pass rate over expectation (PROE), and Expected Points Added per play (EPA) ranks from the first eight weeks.
For those that would like a CSV version of the above chart, you can download the Week 10 Pace of Play CSV.
This NFC West divisional battle already has enough at stake but with a total of 49.5, there is a lot to like. In fact, that is the highest total of a LAR/SF game since CMC came to town. When these two teams played in Week 5, Mac Jones and his motley crew somehow pulled off a Thursday night victory (26-23) despite running out the most random assortment of players with Jake Tonges and Kendrick Bourne playing starring roles. The Rams rank #1 in neutral pace and Matthew Stafford is playing MVP-level football right now. The 49ers are running the 2nd most offensive plays per game and Jones’ willingness to chuck the ball 36+ times a game gives the 49ers passing game life even in a tough matchup.
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