By Patrick Mooney, Will Sammon, Katie Woo and Ken Rosenthal
As team executives, league officials and player agents gather at The Cosmopolitan in Las Vegas this week for Major League Baseball’s general manager meetings, Kyle Tucker will be a much-discussed name.
The consensus No. 1 player in this class of free agents, Tucker has a sterling resume that includes four All-Star selections, two Silver Slugger awards, one Gold Glove and a World Series championship. He will turn 29 before Opening Day next year, a key distinction in an industry that values under-30 players as a way to manage risk.
Those power brokers also know the collective bargaining agreement is set to expire after the 2026 season, creating additional uncertainty about which ownership groups are willing to spend big this winter or more inclined to save for the future.
Another timing element is Tucker coming off an injury-plagued season that limited him to 136 games. Even the top free agents this offseason could be facing some headwinds.
The unique conditions that recently fueled Juan Soto’s 15-year, $765 million megadeal and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s 14-year, $500 million contract extension may not be there right now.
Tucker is well-liked by teammates, with a dry sense of humor, a consistent bearing and an ability to fit into the clubhouse. But his low-key personality does not make him a natural fit for certain responsibilities that come with being the face of a franchise.
Still, Tucker’s freedom to negotiate with all 30 teams represents a rare opportunity to sign an elite left-handed hitter with well-rounded skills, extensive postseason experience and a first-round pedigree. His salary next season will be astronomical.
The questions revolve around whether it will take close to a decade-long commitment, and how many hundreds of millions of dollars. After speaking with officials from various organizations across the league, The Athletic weighed every club’s chances of signing Tucker and grouped those potential landing spots.
Tier 1: Dynasty mode
Los Angeles Dodgers
After the Dodgers won the 2020 World Series, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and other members of the organization came up with a motivational slogan: “Let’s be pigs.”
With an endless appetite for winning more championships, the free-spending Dodgers are seen as a frontrunner for Tucker, who would not have to be the superstar on a team aiming for a three-peat.
Tucker’s smooth offensive game and consistent production would complement an aging core of Hall of Fame-caliber players. Freddie Freeman is 36 years old. Mookie Betts turned 33 last month. Next summer will mark Shohei Ohtani’s 32nd birthday.
While the Dodgers again proved their championship mettle, a creaky offense was propped up by some fantastic pitching performances in the playoffs, most notably by Yoshinobu Yamamoto, this year’s World Series MVP. Addressing the outfield — one of the weakest areas on last year’s roster — will be a priority.
Teoscar Hernández’s defense is a concern, and his .738 OPS represented the lowest mark of his career. Tommy Edman can play center, though he spent most of the season nursing an ankle injury that kept him from the outfield. The Dodgers could also pursue another reunion with Kiké Hernández. Still, none of these options represents a sure-fire fix.
In a relatively seamless transition, Hernández could move back to left field and clear a spot for Tucker at Dodger Stadium, where he could blend in and instantly make this lineup more dynamic.
Tier 2: Start spreading the news
New York Yankees
Last offseason, the Yankees offered Soto a 16-year, $760 million contract and made a concerted effort to acquire Tucker in a trade. The Yankees wound up finding a short-term solution in Cody Bellinger, who produced a strong year in New York and subsequently opted out of the final year of his contract.
After continually hitting the same ceiling — 90-plus wins and zero World Series titles in the past 16 years — now would be a good time to circle back to Tucker and see how much damage his swing could do at Yankee Stadium.
“You’re interested in him to begin with,” a major-league executive said. “You’re obviously interested in Soto. You’ve got an aging position-player group.
“A left-handed bat makes sense.”
Tier 3: The usual suspects
Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, San Francisco Giants, Toronto Blue Jays
You’ve probably seen this movie before.
The Red Sox aren’t lacking in left-handed-hitting outfielders, but they’re always rumored to be in on the prominent free agents. Ditto for the Mets. Soto’s record-setting contract coupled with Brandon Nimmo’s long deal probably takes the Mets out of the running, though complications never stop rival executives from speculating about Steve Cohen, the New York owner with a long history of getting what he wants.
Repeated rejections from free agents compelled Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey to make a shocking midseason trade with the Red Sox for Rafael Devers, taking on a contract with a 2033 expiration date and more than $250 million remaining at that time.
“With all these big guys,” a league source said, “you just keep going back to the same teams.”
After years of being used by free agents for leverage, the Blue Jays showcased their team and their city with a captivating run to the 11th inning of Game 7 of the World Series, which featured a home run by Bo Bichette, who is also a free agent.
The same league source wondered if Toronto would try to pair Tucker with Guerrero and capitalize on this newfound momentum: “Do they just push because they’ve never been able to get anyone to go there and now they actually can?”
An American League executive added, “If I am handicapping it, I am going with the Dodgers, the New York teams, maybe the Blue Jays … and the Phillies.”
Tier 4: Focused more on Kyle Schwarber, but …
Philadelphia Phillies
With money, vision and passion, Phillies owner John Middleton has completely transformed the perception of his team. Once a city that free agents actively tried to avoid, Philadelphia has become a desirable destination. Schwarber, a left-handed hitter who blasted 56 home runs this year, is the leader of that clubhouse.
It’s hard to imagine Middleton and Dave Dombrowski, Philadelphia’s equally aggressive president of baseball operations, letting Schwarber walk away as a free agent. Schwarber and Tucker are both represented by Casey Close of Excel Sports Management.
However, multiple officials from rival clubs speculated that if Schwarber somehow ends up elsewhere, the Phillies are worth watching in the Tucker sweepstakes. From the perspective of these officials, the Phillies need more in the lineup to protect Bryce Harper, with a corner-outfield spot standing out as a logical area to upgrade.
“They are players if they can’t get Schwarber back,” an AL executive said.
Kyle Tucker hit 22 home runs for the Cubs in 2025. (Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)
Tier 5: Hanging around to see what happens
Chicago Cubs
Rather than setting the absolute top of the market, the Cubs take a detached position, targeting the upper-middle class of free agents, seeing how the offseason develops and hoping certain players fall into their comfort zone. This conservative approach is frustrating for Cubs fans who have seen how much the Ricketts family ownership group has built up Wrigleyville, turning the franchise and its satellite businesses into a multibillion-dollar enterprise.
Internally, Tucker was viewed as a rental player when the Cubs traded for him last offseason. After a quiet second half, the pressure to sign Tucker to a long-term deal is gone. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer received a contract extension that took him off the hot seat, the club returned to the playoffs for the first time since 2020 and Tucker wished everyone “the best of luck.”
The Cubs can monitor the situation, stay in contact with Close and present themselves as a fallback option if Tucker isn’t overwhelmed by his initial offers.
Tier 6: Already moved on
Houston Astros
Selecting Tucker with the No. 5 pick in the 2015 draft was one of many consequential decisions that led to Houston’s eight consecutive postseason appearances between 2017 and 2024. That playoff streak ended this year, but the Astros still won 87 games without Tucker, competing while also reloading for the future.
The Astros must believe that they won the Tucker trade handily. While Tucker produced 4.5 WAR in his walk year with the Cubs, per Baseball Reference, two players the Astros acquired in that deal, Cam Smith and Isaac Paredes, combined for 4.2 WAR, and together they still have seven seasons of club control remaining.
Tier 7: A wild card?
Baltimore Orioles
When asked for an under-the-radar team that could end up engaging with Tucker, two executives from different organizations suggested the Orioles.
A separate league source said the Orioles are open to pursuing a premium bat, both in terms of price and production.
However, whether the Orioles hold a specific interest in Tucker is unknown. Also, Baltimore has other needs. For example, they should focus on a top-of-the-rotation starter. And they must rebuild virtually their entire bullpen (though they got a head start on that by acquiring Andrew Kittredge).
Still, the Orioles should hold plenty of motivation after a disappointing season. Also, there’s an element of familiarity; Baltimore president of baseball operations Mike Elias drafted Tucker when Elias worked as the Astros’ scouting director. If Tucker prefers a quieter location, perhaps Baltimore should not be ruled out.
Tier 8: Could they be talked into it?
Detroit Tigers, Seattle Mariners
This might be a stretch, but it seems like almost every offseason there’s a random team or two trying to gain traction with a particular high-profile free agent.
The Mariners beat the Tigers in a 15-inning elimination game to advance in October, and then lost a heartbreaking Game 7 against the Blue Jays in the AL Championship Series. Tucker could be viewed as the missing piece as the Mariners try to maximize Cal Raleigh’s prime and make their first World Series appearance.
The clock is also ticking on the Tigers and Tarik Skubal, a Cy Young Award winner heading into his final season before reaching free agency.
Tier 9: The hometown angle
Tampa Bay Rays
This long-shot possibility involves a new ownership group looking to make a splash and build a new ballpark. Tucker grew up in Tampa, graduating from the same high school that produced Wade Boggs and Pete Alonso. Tampa remains Tucker’s home base, and the Rays have pursued high-end talent in the past.
Even though executing a deal was unlikely, the Rays seriously engaged Freeman before he signed his six-year, $162 million contract with the Dodgers. The thinking was the Rays had a solid nucleus of young, cost-controlled players and enough financial flexibility to invest in a special hitter who could still provide years of enormous surplus value.
Any skepticism about the small-market Rays being a factor is warranted. One team source downplayed this Tucker theory: “Given the way we’re operating right now, I’d assume there is the usual amount of money to spend.”
Tier 10: Don’t see it happening
Atlanta Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks, Cincinnati Reds, Los Angeles Angels, San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals, Texas Rangers
This varied group of teams falls under different categories: concentrating more on pitching, scaling back payroll, prioritizing the future … and whatever it is the Angels are doing.
Tier 11: No chance
Athletics, Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Guardians, Colorado Rockies, Kansas City Royals, Miami Marlins, Milwaukee Brewers, Pittsburgh Pirates, Washington Nationals
Perhaps the Athletics will someday become a glamorous team in Las Vegas. Maybe billionaire investor Justin Ishbia will eventually buy a controlling interest in the White Sox and compete with the Cubs for players, fans and Chicago’s attention.
More than 20 years after the original release of the “Moneyball” book, Paul DePodesta will get another chance to run a baseball team and figure out how to win at Coors Field.
But for now, it’s business as usual.
Roughly one-third to one-half of the league is either rebuilding or not interested in paying premium prices for the best free agents. That is part of the reality for Tucker’s camp, and a central issue for the labor negotiations on the horizon.