Sunday’s AFC South matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the host Houston Texans seemed doomed to afterthought status on the NFL’s Week 10 schedule. The Jaguars, a one-point underdog on BetMGM, looked to be well on their way to a minor upset after taking a 29-10 lead on Travis Etienne’s six-yard touchdown run with 1:23 left in the third quarter. At that point, Jacksonville had a 98.4 percent chance of winning, according to ESPN.
But, as fans and bettors know, it’s never over until the clock strikes 0.
Houston, who was playing without injured starting quarterback C.J. Stroud, was a mess for much of the game, starting with backup Davis Mills’s interception on his second pass attempt of the day. Through three quarters, the Texans had gained only 134 yards.
Things changed quickly in the fourth quarter, however. Mills engineered a 13-play, 65-yard touchdown drive on Houston’s first possession of the fourth, and a successful two-point conversion cut its deficit to 29-18. The Texans smothered the Jaguars from there, forcing two three-and-outs. Mills then threw a 7-yard touchdown pass to Dalton Schultz and ran one in by himself to give Houston an improbable 30-29 lead with 27 seconds remaining.
A push on the one-point spread seemed likely, as the Jaguars only managed to get to their own 35-yard line with seven seconds left. But on the final play of the game, Houston bettors got an early Christmas present.
BIG MAN TOUCHDOWN TO END IT IN HOUSTON pic.twitter.com/yiygyziETd
— NFL (@NFL) November 9, 2025
Sheldon Rankins’s 32-yard fumble return for a touchdown as the clock struck zero put a stamp on Houston’s 36-29 win and, more importantly to some, gave the Texans an unlikely point-spread cover. As of Sunday morning on BetMGM, 76 percent of money bet on the spread was on the Texans, and Houston -1 was the fifth-most-bet point spread of the day.
It was the second straight Sunday that a Jaguars point spread was decided on the final play of the game. In Week 9, the Jaguars pushed as one-point favorites over the Raiders, 30-29, after denying Las Vegas’s last-second two-point conversion attempt. In Week 2, Jacksonville failed to cover as a 3.5-point underdog against Cincinnati when the Bengals scored a touchdown with 18 seconds left in a 31-27 win.
“The reality is we gave up a 19-point lead to lose the game,” Jacksonville coach Liam Coen told reporters afterward. “Part of winning in the National Football League is sustaining a lead. We just needed one stop and didn’t get one. You score 29 and you feel like you’re going to have a chance to go get a win, but we didn’t get it done.”