As MLB dignitaries and key personnel arrive in Las Vegas for the annual general manager meetings, one big free agent name is getting a lot of chatter: Kyle Tucker. And the commotion is understandable given he’s the No. 1 consensus free agent across the board at The Athletic.
Oddsmakers across town will also be keeping a close eye on developments surrounding Tucker. The 28-year-old five-tool outfielder is the main attraction and will certainly influence the betting odds for the team that ultimately lands him.
But what team will it be?
While legal sportsbooks in the U.S. aren’t offering next-team odds for Tucker, we asked Borgata director of race and sports Thomas Gable to create hypothetical odds for where he expects Tucker to sign, using the same analysis oddsmakers employ when creating these markets.
Here are Gable’s odds and analysis:
Los Angeles Dodgers +250: “Even with winning back-to-back World Series, I would make the Dodgers the favorites as you could still see a need for them to add another outfielder. While conventional wisdom is they wouldn’t have the money to do it, as we’ve seen recently, L.A. always finds a way.”
New York Yankees +325: “Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham are free agents, so if both of them go elsewhere, or even just Bellinger, the Yankees will definitely be in the running for Tucker.”
Philadelphia Phillies +575: “This one would really be dependent on whether the Phillies retain Kyle Schwarber. If they don’t, they will want to add a big bat to make up for the power loss. There is also a possibility J.T. Realmuto doesn’t get a deal done, and then the Phillies have lots of money to play with to lure Tucker.”
San Francisco Giants +625: “Even after trading for Rafael Devers, the Giants know they need to add offense to the lineup. Whether they can compete contract-wise with the likes of L.A. and N.Y., though, remains to be seen.”
New York Mets +650: “I only make the Mets this low as I never want to underestimate Steve Cohen’s ability to spend money.”
Chicago Cubs +1000: “Chicago has the money to pay him, but they aren’t typically super aggressive in free agency, and they probably would have already gotten a deal done.”
How will Tucker impact his next team?
In the betting world, one way to directly gauge a player’s impact on a team is by whether he moves the win total. Last December, within the industry, Juan Soto was seen as having an impact of seven or eight wins on a team’s win total before landing with the New York Mets for $765 million over 15 years.
That is not the case this offseason, at least according to the people I spoke to.
“Tucker is a nice player, but in my opinion, he is not a game-changer type player,” Westgate SuperBook baseball oddsmaker Randy Blum told The Athletic via text. “Maybe a win or two. That’s about it.”
Tucker’s sportsbook impact will most likely resemble that of Corey Seager in 2021 or George Springer in 2020, as opposed to what we saw with Soto, Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge over each of the previous three offseasons.
Obviously, the betting market will eventually provide the exact answer, once win totals are offered and free agency shakes out.
Another market that will be impacted once the dust settles revolves around World Series odds. Unsurprisingly, the Los Angeles Dodgers are currently favored to three-peat. BetMGM has them at +350 odds with the New York Yankees as the second-favorite with +750 odds.