Don’t be surprised if … Randle leads Wolves in fantasy points, Westbrook is a top-50 player

Each week in the NBA is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true … don’t be surprised!

Randle is off to a fantastic start, averaging 25.4 PPG, 7.2 RPG and 6.2 APG through 11 games, while also shooting high percentages and pilfering more than a steal per game. Perhaps he won’t/can’t keep it up to this level, but I have thought Randle became a bit underrated in fantasy in his latter New York Knicks seasons. He didn’t only score and rebound, but he tallied assists we covet from a forward, though those were somewhat mitigated by high turnover totals. Randle fell from the top 50 in ESPN ADP in recent seasons, but he didn’t deserve to.

Last season, his first in Minnesota after the Karl-Anthony Towns trade, Randle’s numbers fell in most categories, and he finished outside the top 50 in fantasy scoring. I thought he could get some of the numbers back, notably by stealing some rebounds from C Rudy Gobert (which he hasn’t), him averaging what is currently a career high in points is surprising. Randle runs the offense and is also netting a career-high assists rate. The Timberwolves don’t really have a reliable point guard, unless one counts the shell of what is left of Mike Conley.

Randle ranks fifth on ESPN’s Player Rater. The only other Minnesota player in the top 50 is … wait, it isn’t SG/SF Anthony Edwards? No, it isn’t. Perhaps this section should be about Edwards, but we aim to be positive, so let’s praise Randle first. Year 2 in Minnesota is going great for him. A sixth-round pick in ESPN ADP is currently in the top 10 in fantasy scoring at 48.1 points, and Randle is the No. 5 Player Rater option overall. Teammate SF Jaden McDaniels (up to 82% rostered) also is among the top 50 fantasy scorers, but he won’t hit 53% of his 3-pointers for long.

Edwards is not in the top 50, and here is why: While still firing up myriad shots from 3-point range, Edwards isn’t doing much else. His rebounds are down from 5.7 to 4.1, his assists from 4.5 to 3.3. He’s still averaging 27.1 PPG, but if he wasn’t hitting 50% of his 3-point attempts (Minnesota is second in 3-point percentage), that figure would be down and everyone would notice.

None of this means Edwards is a first-round bust; he missed four games with a hamstring injury, and he has played a better all-around game since returning. He is Anthony Edwards and he averaged 44.1 fantasy points last season (41.9 currently)! Randle, of course, is averaging 48.1 points. I say trade for each with confidence, and perhaps each ends up in the top 10, which would be quite an achievement.

Don’t be surprised if … Russell Westbrook finishes as a top-50 player

Westbrook, a relative afterthought in many drafts, was a rather late signing to the Sacramento Kings, agreeing to a one-year contract less than a week before the regular season. The Kings seemed to have significant depth so Westbrook, in his age-37 season, figured to come off the bench, just as he had more than half of last season with the Denver Nuggets, and thus play limited minutes. The former league MVP averaged 30.6 fantasy points over 27.9 MPG last season, fine for a fantasy streaming option.

This season, Westbrook averages 33.2 fantasy points in 28.3 MPG (entering Wednesday), the points roughly the same as Kings teammates DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine. That was hardly expected, and it is mainly because Westbrook has averaged 20.2 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 6.6 APG and 3.2 3PG in his five starts. In six outings off the bench, he is not usable for standard leagues, though helpful in roto/categories formats with 5.5 APG. The Kings are 3-8. One of the games they prevailed was against the Golden State Warriors, with Westbrook delivering an awesome triple-double (23-16-10) that night.

I guess my point is the Kings could easily move Westbrook (rostered in 81.1%) to the starting lineup, and this proud, future Hall of Famer is clearly motivated to pile on more triple-doubles and earn another contract. Meanwhile, PG Dennis Schroder went scoreless in Tuesday’s loss. SG Malik Monk, no longer getting assists, is droppable. DeRozan is trade bait. Perhaps Westbrook is as well. Either way, this fellow can still play. I’m investing in case we get the good numbers more consistently.

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Andrew Nembhard gets the basket plus the foul

Andrew Nembhard gets the basket plus the foul

Many fantasy managers moved on from Nembhard, a 10th-round pick in ESPN leagues, when he hurt his shoulder in the team’s opener and missed the next two weeks to recover. It makes sense. Fantasy managers are not patient. However, Nembhard is healthy again and he has played 30 minutes in three games, averaging 20.3 PPG and 7.3 APG in road losses to the Nuggets, Warriors and Utah Jazz. The Nuggets and Warriors games make sense. The Pacers are shorthanded. Permitting 152 points to Utah, is … yikes.

Nembhard is a legitimate starting point guard and, while it is a small sample, he has outscored star PF Pascal Siakam for fantasy points since his return. So, why can’t this continue? After all, Tyrese Haliburton (Achilles) is not playing this season. Backup PG T.J. McConnell (hamstring) made his season debut Tuesday, but I don’t think his 20 MPG will hamper Nembhard. In fact, they should play together quite a bit. The Pacers are far from done despite losing 10 of their first 11 contests. Getting Nembhard and McConnell back will turn things around.

Don’t be surprised if … Bradley Beal’s season-ending injury has minimal impact in fantasy

OK, so perhaps that is a bit mean, but Beal, who was rostered in a mere 14.9% of ESPN leagues the day this news was announced (Nov. 12), was averaging 8.2 PPG and little else in 20.2 MPG (six games), a sad 10.2 fantasy points per game. For perspective, teammate James Harden averages 46 fantasy points. Chris Paul averages only 2.3 PPG in 13 MPG and still, he is averaging 13 fantasy points. Beal had some fantasy value for the Phoenix Suns the past two seasons, even playing in only 53 games each year, but this season, perhaps due to his injury, there was nothing there.

Fantasy managers are somewhat conditioned to evaluate which players will step up whenever a rotation player, especially one as accomplished as Beal, leaves the lineup via injury or trade or whatever. In this case, however, it is hard to find winners because Beal was so unproductive. Again, perhaps he had reason to be, but still, don’t run to the computer or app to add Paul, PG Kris Dunn, SF Derrick Jones Jr., SG/SF Bogdan Bogdanovic or C Brook Lopez. Dunn, a stalwart defender, offers little in fantasy. He will play more. Bogdanovic is obviously better than his current numbers, but he averaged only 20.7 fantasy points last season. We wish Beal health, but this is not the major fantasy news it typically would be.