The Primer: Week 11 Edition (2025 Fantasy Football)

In Marcus Mariota‘s four starts this season, he has one QB1 weekly finish (QB6) while averaging 5.2 rushing attempts and 27.5 rushing yards per game (one rushing score). Among 42 qualifying quarterbacks, Mariota ranks tenth in yards per attempt, eighth in CPOE, 17th in highly accurate throw rate, and fourth in hero throw rate. He should have success this week. Since Week 6, Miami has ranked 18th in yards per attempt while giving up the 11th-most passing touchdowns (tied), the tenth-highest CPOE, and the 11th-highest success rate per dropback.

Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR)

Deebo Samuel is the WR20 in fantasy points per game with a 24.4% target share, 44 receiving yards per game, 1.65 yards per route run, and a 29.7% first-read share. He has ten red zone targets this season and six deep targets as he is leading the team in both categories. Last week’s 12.9 PPR point outing was the first time that Samuel had posted double-digit PPR points since Week 5. This week, he could easily do it again. Since Week 6, Miami has allowed the 11th-most PPR points per target and the 12th-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers.

Zach Ertz (TE)

Zach Ertz is the TE16 in fantasy points per game with two TE1 weeks this season. Ertz has two deep targets and five red zone targets this season. Ertz has a 17.3% target share with 34.5 receiving yards per game, 1.40 yards per route run, and a 20.5% first-read share. Ertz is a strong streaming option this week at tight end. Miami has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game, the seventh-highest yards per reception, and the third-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Tua Tagovailoa (QB)

Tua Tagovailoa has had a horrible season as the QB28 in fantasy points per game. He has only one QB1 performance all season, but he could add a second this week. Among 42 qualifying passers, Tagovailoa ranks 28th in passing yards per game and yards per attempt, 20th in catchable target rate, and 26th in fantasy points per dropback. Washington’s pass defense has fallen apart. Since Week 6, they have allowed the second-most passing yards per game, the most yards per attempt and passing touchdowns, and the ninth-highest CPOE. If you need a streaming quarterback this week, Tagovailoa could be it.

Chris Rodriguez (RB)

Last week, Chris Rodriguez left the game with a shoulder injury. He is practicing in full to open the week and is expected to play. I expect him to lead the way for Washington’s ground game this week. In the first half of last week’s game, Rodriguez had a 68% snap share and handled six of ten running back rushing attempts while logging a 53.8% route share. Among 64 qualifying backs, Rodgriquez ranks third in yards after contact per attempt. Rodriguez is a strong flex play this week. Since Week 6, Miami has allowed the eighth-highest explosive run rate, the seventh-highest yards after contact per attempt, and ranked 19th in rushing yards per game.

Malik Washington (WR)

Since becoming Jaylen Waddle‘s running mate in the Dolphins’ passing attack in Week 5, Malik Washington has had a 61.8% route share, a 14.9% target share, 24.2 receiving yards per game, 1.15 yards per route run, and a 16.4% first-read share. During that span, he had seven red-zone targets and two deep targets. Malik Washington isn’t an awe-inspiring flex option, but he’s definitely a viable one for Week 11. Since Week 6, the Commanders have allowed the fifth-most PPR points and the most receiving yards per game to slot receivers.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB)

Bench Bill this week. Before Chris Rodriguez got hurt last week, I looked like Bill had been benched. In the first half, he had only a 16% snap rate while handling only two of ten running back carries with a 7.7% route share. Chris Rodriguez is expected to be a full-go this week, which means Bill will only be a change of pace back.

NYJ vs. NE | WAS vs. MIA | LAC vs. JAC | TB vs. BUF | CAR vs.ATL | CIN vs. PIT | HOU vs. TEN | GB vs. NYG | CHI vs. MIN | SF vs. ARI | SEA vs. LAR | KC vs. DEN | BAL vs. CLE | DET vs. PHI | DAL vs. LV

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Chargers Players & Weekly Rankings

Jaguars Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

*Ordonde Gadsden ll opened the week with a full practice (contusion).*

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Travis Etienne is set to eat this week. He’s the RB17 in fantasy points per game, averaging 17.3 touches and 87.3 total yards. Etienne ranks 12th in snap share, 14th in weighted opportunities, and eighth in red zone touches. Among 64 qualifying backs, Etienne ranks 31st in missed tackle rate and 23rd in yards after contact per attempt. He should pad those tackle breaking stats this week. The Bolts run defense has quietly been one of the worst in the league all season. Since Week 6, they have allowed the fourth-highest explosive run rate, the sixth-highest missed tackle rate, the second-highest yards before contact per attempt, and have the ninth-lowest stuff rate.

Ladd McConkey (WR)

Since Week 5, Ladd McConkey has been the WR9 in fantasy points per game with a 24.4% target share, 76.2 receiving yards per game, 2.23 yards per route run, and a 23.1% first-read share. During these six games, he has had ten red zone targets and six deep targets. Jacksonville has utilized two high with 50-70.8% of their defensive snaps in six of their nine games. Since Week 5, McConkey has led the team with 25% while posting 1.60 yards per route run against two high. The matchup is tough for McConkey this week, but he has the talent to overcome it. Since Week 6, Jacksonville has allowed the second-fewest PPR points per target and the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game to slot receivers.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Quentin Johnston (WR)

Quentin Johnston‘s usage has bounced back over the last two games despite not having monster fantasy days. Since Week 9, he has had a 21% target share, a 22.9% air-yard share, 47.5 receiving yards per game, 1.42 yards per route run, and a 27.3% first-read share. This week isn’t the matchup to continue to ride with Johnston, though, if the Jaguars deploy two high. Jacksonville has utilized two high with 50-70.8% of their defensive snaps in six of their nine games. They do have three single high heavy games as well, so if they go single high heavy, then Johnston would lead the team in the passing game. It’s a risk to fade Johnston this week, but if Jacksonville does lean on two high, he won’t be heavily involved. Against two high, Johnston has a 15% target per route run rate (fifth on the team) and only 1.14 yards per route run (fifth on the team). Since Week 6, Jacksonville has allowed the fourth-most PPR points per target and the ninth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Jacksonville’s outside corners have struggled, which could also help Johnston. He’s a volatile player this week who could be feast or famine.

Keenan Allen (WR)

Keenan Allen has seen his usage dip since Week 8 with a 54.9% route share, a 16.1% target share, 34.7 receiving yards per game, 1.68 yards per route run, and a 15.8% first-read share. In those three games, he has had one red zone target and two deep targets. Since Week 8, he has been the WR74 in fantasy points per game. It has been a tough run out for Keenan Allen during crunch time in the fantasy season. Jacksonville has utilized two high with 50-70.8% of their defensive snaps in six of their nine games. Allen has led the team with a 24% target per route run rate against two high while ranking second in yards per route run (1.88). This is a good bounce-back spot for him if the Chargers increase his playing time this week, but there’s an equal possibility that they keep him in this new part-time role and it caps his ceiling in Week 11. Since Week 6, Jacksonville has allowed the fourth-most PPR points per target and the ninth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Parker Washington (WR)

Since Week 7, Parker Washington has been the WR18 in fantasy points per game with a 21.9% target share, a 34.2% air-yard share, 58.3 receiving yards per game, 1.68 yards per route run, and a 25% first-read share. In those three games, Washington has had four red zone targets and five deep targets. Last week, he ran 55.2% of his routes from the slot. I expect him to continue to be the team’s slot receiver until Travis Hunter returns. Washington remains a strong volume-based flex option. Since Week 6, the Chargers have faced the eighth-fewest slot targets, but they have allowed the 14th-most PPR points per target to the position. Washington opened the week with a DNP (hamstring). I’ll continue to monitor his status and update it as we get more information.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Trevor Lawrence (QB)

Trevor Lawrence has had a disappointing season under Liam Coen. He is the QB19 in fantasy points per game with only three QB1 outings. He needed two rushing scores in two of those games to spit out a QB1 weekly score, so we can chalk that up to flukiness. Among 42 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 31st in yards per attempt, 25th in CPOE, 34th in highly accurate throw rate, and 28th in fantasy points per dropback. Lawrence is set for another struggle bus QB2 week. Since Week 6, the Bolts have allowed the seventh-lowest yards per attempt, the sixth-lowest passing yards per game and CPOE, and the fourth-lowest success rate per dropback.

Kimani Vidal (RB)

Since Week 6, Vidal has been the RB16 in fantasy points per game, averaging 19.2 touches and 87.6 total yards. Among 64 qualifying backs, he ranks 20th in explosive run rate and 34th in yards after contact per attempt. I don’t expect another massive game from Vidal this week, though. The Jags’ run defense has been nasty. Since Week 6, they have allowed the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, the third-fewest rushing yards per game, the tenth-lowest yards per carry to zone runs (Vidal 60.4% zone), and the fourth-lowest yards before contact per attempt.

Brian Thomas Jr. (WR)

Brian Thomas Jr. logged a limited practice session to open the week (ankle). I’ll update his status on Friday. Hopefully, he returns this week.

Jakobi Meyers (WR)

Last week, Jakobi Meyers had only a 50% route share with a 13% target share and a 21.4% first-read share. He turned that into three receptions and 41 receiving yards. I’m avoiding flexing Meyers this week with his route share up in the air, although I do expect it to increase some. The matchup isn’t great, so it’s tough to expect Meyers to maximize a part-time role in Week 11. Since Week 6, the Bolts have allowed the third-fewest PPR points per target and the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

NYJ vs. NE | WAS vs. MIA | LAC vs. JAC | TB vs. BUF | CAR vs.ATL | CIN vs. PIT | HOU vs. TEN | GB vs. NYG | CHI vs. MIN | SF vs. ARI | SEA vs. LAR | KC vs. DEN | BAL vs. CLE | DET vs. PHI | DAL vs. LV

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills

Buccaneers Players & Weekly Rankings

Bills Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

N/A

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Since assuming a starting spot in Week 6, Tez Johnson has been the WR21 in fantasy points per game. During that stretch, he has had a 15% target share with 47 receiving yards per game, 1.55 yards per route run, and a 14.8% first-read share. None of those metrics are eye popping. What has carried Johnson’s fantasy value has been touchdowns, with four in his last four games. Johnson has been getting plenty of high-leverage usage to suggest he can continue to ride the lightning with four red zone targets and three deep targets in his last four games. Buffalo has the ninth-highest two-high rate in the NFL (54.7%). Since Week 6, against two high, Johnson has had a 20% target per route run rate and 1.98 yards per route run. Johnson is a solid flex play again this week against a Buffalo secondary that, since Week 6, has ranked 15th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers.

Khalil Shakir (WR)

Khalil Shakir is the WR30 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 20.8% target share and 24% first-read share while churning out 50.8 receiving yards per game with 1.98 yards per route run. Shakir leads the team with eight red zone targets while chipping in with four deep targets. Shakir is a mid-range flex play again this week with a rough matchup. Since Week 6, Tampa Bay has allowed the fifth-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers while ranking 17th in receiving yards per game allowed.

Keon Coleman (WR)

Since Week 2, Keon Coleman has been the WR71 in fantasy points per game. Last week’s WR26 finish in weekly scoring was the first time that Coleman had been a top-40 fantasy wide receiver in weekly scoring since Week 1. Since Week 2, Coleman has had a 16.6% target share with 27.3 receiving yards per game, 1.21 yards per route run, and a 20.6% first-read share. In those eight games, Coleman has had two red zone targets and ten deep targets. I don’t want to chase last week’s small blip, but if you do, this isn’t a bad matchup to do so. Since Week 6, Tampa Bay has allowed the sixth-most PPR points per target and the second-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Baker Mayfield (QB)

Baker Mayfield is the QB13 in fantasy points per game. The injuries to the Bucs receiver room have hurt his fantasy stock, but he still has five QB1 outings in his last seven games. Among 42 qualifying passers, Mayfield ranks 13th in passing yards per game, 22nd in yards per attempt, 11th in passing touchdowns (tied), 20th in highly accurate throw rate, and eighth in hero throw rate. Mayfield could produce fringe QB1 numbers this week, but it won’t be easy. Since Week 6, New England has allowed the eighth-fewest yards per attempt and the ninth-lowest CPOE and success rate per dropback. The return of Christian Gonzalez has transformed their pass defense.

Bucky Irving (RB)

Bucky Irving surprisingly returned to a limited practice to open this week. Irving could return this week. I’ll update his status on Friday.

Rachaad White (RB)

Bucky Irving surprisingly returned to a limited practice to open this week. Irving could return this week. This backfield could shift quickly in Week 11. I’ll update Rachaad White‘s status on Friday.

Sean Tucker (RB)

Bucky Irving surprisingly returned to a limited practice to open this week. Irving could return this week. This backfield could shift quickly in Week 11. I’ll update Sean Tucker‘s status on Friday.

Cade Otton (TE)

Since Week 5, Otton has been the TE11 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 21.4% target share with 63.8 receiving yards per game, 2.20 yards per route run, and a 16.7% first-read share. Otton has zero touchdowns in this five-game sample, which isn’t surprising when you consider that he has ZERO red zone targets or deep targets during this stretch. I don’t want to stream Otton this week. You’re just point chasing. Buffalo has allowed the fewest receiving yards per game and fantasy points per game to tight ends this season.

NYJ vs. NE | WAS vs. MIA | LAC vs. JAC | TB vs. BUF | CAR vs.ATL | CIN vs. PIT | HOU vs. TEN | GB vs. NYG | CHI vs. MIN | SF vs. ARI | SEA vs. LAR | KC vs. DEN | BAL vs. CLE | DET vs. PHI | DAL vs. LV