Tony Sartori breaks down his top UFC 322 parlay picks for tonight’s card in New York City, headlined by Islam Makhachev vs. Jack Della Maddalena.
Photo By – Imagn Images. Islam Makhachev (red gloves) during UFC 302.
The UFC returns to the “World’s Most Famous Arena” as Madison Square Garden hosts UFC 322 this evening.
Headlining the card are two highly anticipated title fights, rounding out what should be one of the year’s best cards.
Let’s dive into the latest UFC odds with my free betting picks for November 15.
Best UFC 322 parlay picks
Pat Sabatini moneyline
Valentina Shevchenko by decision
Islam Makhachev moneyline
Pat Sabatini moneyline
The early prelims feature Pat Sabatini and Chepe Mariscal in a featherweight bout between two unranked contenders who look to crack the top 15.
Sabatini enters this matchup as one of the more underrated wrestlers in the 145-pound division, carrying strong submission skills and tremendous toughness. He averages nearly four takedowns per 15 minutes with close to 50% accuracy, and his scrambling ability often matters more than raw numbers.
Meanwhile, Mariscal’s takedown defense is solid statistically, but Sabatini’s relentless chain-wrestling often overwhelms opponents who defend the initial shot. Sabatini also owns 13 submission wins in his pro career, showing how quickly he can capitalize on even brief grappling opportunities.
The previous meeting between these two resulted in a razor-close split decision for Mariscal, giving Sabatini a clear blueprint for adjustments. With improved control and a more wrestling-heavy approach, Sabatini has strong value on the moneyline in what should be another competitive but winnable fight.
Valentina Shevchenko by decision
The co-main event sees Zhang Weili moving up to flyweight to take on flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko.
Shevchenko’s elite distance management and counterstriking give her a clear path to controlling Weili over the course of five rounds. She has historically maintained a high takedown defense rate while mixing in accurate offensive wrestling of her own.
Although Zhang is one of the most explosive fighters on the roster, moving up in weight against a physically larger and more defensively sound opponent adds layers of difficulty. Shevchenko often wins through range control, clean point-fighting, and well-timed grappling entries rather than finishing power, especially in championship-length fights.
Zhang will need to take big risks just to crash the pocket, which increases her exposure to counters and takedown attempts. All signs point to Shevchenko edging a technical contest and winning on the scorecards.
Islam Makhachev by decision
Welterweight champ Islam Makhachev enters UFC 322 with a massive grappling advantage over Jack Della Maddalena, and it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where he doesn’t secure multiple takedowns across five rounds.
His control time and top-pressure metrics are among the highest in the promotion, and he pairs them with a dangerous submission arsenal. JDM is an elite striker, but many fans are overvaluing his chances because of how he boxed up another grappler in Belal Muhammad to claim this belt.
Makhachev’s striking is far sharper and more defensively sound than Belal’s. Once this fight hits the mat, the skill gap becomes enormous, and the longer the fight goes, the more dominant Islam will look.
Expect Makhachev to impose his game, drown JDM with pressure, and cruise to a victory either on the cards or with a late submission.
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