UFC 322 Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev Predictions, Picks & Odds

Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev should be a long but highly-entertaining bout that goes to the underdog, as our UFC expert explains.

Nov 15, 2025 • 19:21 ET

• 4 min read

Jack Della Maddalena makes his first welterweight title defense against Islam Makhachev at UFC 322 tonight.

Makhachev is the former lightweight champion and the No. 2-ranked pound-for-pound fighter in the world, and UFC odds have installed him as a -300 favorite to take the belt from JDM.

However, my Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev predictions break down why an upset is in the works. 

Read more in my free betting picks for Saturday, November 15, with the main card set to take place from Madison Square Garden in New York City.

Della Maddalena vs Makhachev prediction and best bet

Fight analysis

Islam Makhachev has the second-longest win streak in UFC history at 15 wins. In his last fight, he submitted Renato Moicano in the first round for a record fourth successful lightweight title defense. 

He then vacated his belt so he could move up to welterweight for an automatic title shot. Makhachev is a special fighter, but so is Jack Della Maddalena, who has won 18 fights in a row while going 9-0 inside the octagon.

JDM hasn’t lost a fight since he was a teenager, and he’s fresh off his most impressive performance, beating Belal Muhammad by unanimous decision to claim welterweight gold. 

The Australian is just entering his prime at 29 years old, and he has some of the best boxing in MMA. He has excellent striking defense and mixes up shots to the body and head with precision and power.

He also has impressive defensive wrestling, which we saw against Muhammad. Sure, he can be taken down, but he has good scrambling along with the ability to get back to his feet.

Makhachev is one of the most well-rounded fighters in UFC history, combining elite grappling and wrestling with crisp kickboxing. That said, he was significantly bigger than his opponents at lightweight, an advantage he won’t have after moving up a division. 

I understand why Islam is the favorite due to his grappling, but this line is too wide, especially after moving up for his first welterweight fight against a superior boxer in Della Maddalena. Take the current champ at plus money.

Best bet analysis

Three of Maddalena’s last four fights have gone the distance, and Makhachev’s chin should be even better now that he’s not draining himself by cutting to 155.

One thing about Makhachev’s resume is that he hasn’t faced many elite fighters. He finished the chinny Charles Oliveira but went the distance in the first fight against Alexander Volkanovski, while going to the fifth round against Dustin Poirier. 

With the exception of a flash head-kick in the rematch against Volkanovski, who accepted the bout on less than a week’s notice, Makhachev hasn’t displayed much knockout power. 

The majority of his finishes have been by submission, but Maddalena has the tools to survive those attempts. The Dagestani should land a few takedowns, but JDM will get out of bad positions and make him work on the mat.

I don’t see an early finish happening for either fighter here.

Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev odds

Method of Victory	Della Maddalena	Makhachev
To win outright	+240	-300
To win by KO/TKO	+335	+640
To win by decision	+750	+210
To win by submission	+2250	+190
Draw	+3500	+3500

Odds as of 11-15.

Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev tale of the tape

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