Before we get into the specifics of this matchup and how to approach it for the DraftKings showdown slate, I want to point people back to a few pieces of evergreen content that I think are extremely valuable if you’re serious about winning showdown all season. I’d recommend reading/listening to this content before proceeding, especially if you’re new to showdown.
1. How to Win Showdown Contests: A detailed article looking at the data and strategy behind winning showdown lineups.
2. DFS Showdown Strategy Podcast: A thorough discussion on how to beat showdown, looking at the game theory and how to leverage the field.
DraftKings Sportsbook Lines
Spread: BUF -5.5
Total: 43.5
Team Totals: Bills (24.8), Texans (18.8)
Game Outlook
Week 12 in the NFL kicks off on Thursday night with an AFC battle between the 7-3 Bills and the 5-5 Texans. The spread as of this writing has bounced back and forth between BUF -5.5 and 6, depending on which book you look at with the total hovering at a middling 43.5 points. That low total does make sense considering Houston games are 6-3-1 to the under while Bills games are an even 5-5 in terms of the over/under. We’ll start on the Texans side of the ball here, as we’ll get our third start in a row for Davis Mills. Over the last three weeks, Houston has actually been more pass-heavy with Stroud sidelined, throwing at a 63% rate when games are within one score, and they’ve logged three straight positive pass rate over expectation rates with their PROE sitting at +6% in Mills’ starts. Of course, the matchup here suggests otherwise, as the Bills have been one of, if not the, league’s biggest run funnel defenses all year. On the season, Buffalo ranks dead last in PROE faced with opposing teams averaging a -5.6% PROE rate against the Bills. Given that Buffalo ranks 30th in EPA per rush defensively, I suspect we’ll see a more balanced/run first game plan this week so long as the scoreboard allows.
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