Welcome to the Target Trends article for Week 13! Let’s start, as usual, by looking at the season-long target leaders to this point.
Despite the one-game suspension, Ja’Marr Chase still leads all players with 117 targets. That works out to a league-leading 11.7 targets/game. On a per-game basis, Drake London is the only other player averaging in the double-digits at 10.4 targets/game. When it comes to pure volume, TE Trey McBride is second with 109 targets, followed by Chris Olave with 107, and both Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Amon-Ra St. Brown with 107 apiece.
Back to Trey McBride. He’s on pace for 168.5 targets, which would destroy the record of 156 set by Zach Ertz in 2018. Currently coming in second at the position, we find Jake Ferguson with 77 targets, which is 32 fewer than T-McB. There are three other TEs over 70: Tyler Warren (74), Travis Kelce (72), and Dalton Schultz (72).
Much like McBride at TE, Christian McCaffrey and his 103 targets are running away with the target lead at RB. He is on pace for 146 targets, which would break his own record of 142 set in 2019. Again, like TE, we find the second-most-targeted RB 32 targets behind. That would be De’Von Achane with 71. Bijan Robinson is next with 61, followed by Chase Brown at 57 and Jahmyr Gibbs at 55(!).
I’ll continue to lead off this article with season-long target leaders each week, but for now, let’s check out this week’s target trends heading into Week 13.
Michael Wilson: 15 targets, 10 rec
He didn’t see quite as many targets as last week, but Wilson still led the way in Week 12. He’s now seen 33 targets over the last two games, which is just five fewer than his first nine combined. There were enough targets to go around with Jacoby Brissett slinging it, as Trey McBride saw double-digit targets for the sixth time this year and Greg Dortch saw a season-high nine. The 32% target share Wilson has enjoyed over the last two weeks will likely diminish when Marvin Harrison Jr. returns, but he’s been too good to ignore going forward.
Wan’Dale Robinson: 14 targets, 9 rec
Don’t look now, but Robinson is the WR10 on the season. That’s on the back of 102 targets so far, the fifth most among WRs. His 14 targets in Week 12 tied his career high from Week 4 of last season, and he is up to a 27% target share this season, just two points above the 25% he hit last season.
Amon-Ra St. Brown: 13 targets, 9 rec
Jahmyr Gibbs: 12 targets, 11 rec
Jameson Williams: 3 targets, 0 rec
ARSB has logged double-digit targets in six of his eleven games played this season and is on pace for 165. That would barely top his career high of 164 targets from 2023. As for Gibbs, part of his nuclear Week 12 performance was his career-high 12 targets. He’s now been targeted 20 times in the last two games. Unfortunately, there weren’t enough targets for everyone to go around, and Jame-o was once again the odd man out. He’s now seen four or fewer targets in five games this season.
Chris Olave: 13 targets, 9 rec
Devin Neal: 7 targets, 5 rec
Olave, currently the WR11 on the season, is the second-most targeted WR in the league. He’s on pace for 167 on the season, which would smash his career-high from 2023. He had just four targets in Tyler Shough’s first start, but has combined for 21 targets and a 31% target share over his last two. As for Neal, the rookie RB was targeted seven times and will offer some fantasy appeal if Alvin Kamara misses time with the knee injury that he suffered in this game.
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Rashee Rice: 12 targets, 8 rec
Rice has seen a 26% target share since returning from his suspension, including his season high 12 targets in Week 12. He’s only played five games so far, but his 47 targets are just six fewer than Xavier Worthy has seen in his nine games played. His 9.4 targets/game easily lead the team, which is always a good thing when Patrick Mahomes is the QB.
DeVonta Smith: 11 targets, 6 rec
A.J. Brown: 10 targets, 8 rec
Saquon Barkley: 8 targets, 7 rec
With Jalen Hurts attempting a season-high 39 pass attempts, all of the Eagles’ pass-catchers thrived. Well…except Dallas Goedert. Smith tied his season high with 11 targets, which he turned into 89 scoreless receiving yards. It was just the third time this season that he was targeted double-digit times. That is the same number of times AJB has seen double-digit targets, though he put up more yardage and found the end zone. Smith (78) has a three-target lead on Brown (75) for the season, though Brown did miss one game due to injury. As for Saquon, his eight targets were a new season high. He turned them into 52 receiving yards, which helped salvage his disappointing performance on the ground.
CeeDee Lamb: 11 targets, 4 rec
George Pickens: 9 targets, 9 rec
Philly’s opponent in Week 12 focused their targets, as usual, on their two stud wideouts. Lamb, who missed three games earlier this season, is averaging 9.0 targets/game. Pickens is right behind him with 8.4 targets/game. However, Pickens has been more productive with his targets, averaging 2.0 fantasy points/target, compared to just 1.4 for Lamb.
Puka Nacua: 11 targets, 7 rec
Davante Adams: 8 targets, 5 rec
Yawn, another double-digit target outing for Puka. That is slightly above his 9.8 targets/game, which is pacing to be a new career high for the third-year WR. As for Adams, he’s averaging 8.5 targets/game and has only dipped below that threshold twice this season.
Khalil Shakir: 10 targets, 8 rec
Shakir is Buffalo’s de facto WR1. No other Bill saw more than four targets last Thursday night, and Shakir’s 71 targets this season are 22 more than his closest teammate, Keon Coleman. Shakir will likely continue to be Josh Allen’s favorite target for the rest of the season, which makes him fantasy viable every week.
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George Kittle: 10 targets, 6 rec
Kittle logged double-digit targets on Monday night for the first time since Week 5 of last season. Those ten targets make up a quarter of the 40 targets he has seen this season, though he has missed five games to injury. He is currently sitting at a 19% target share, slightly below his 21% career average.
Hunter Henry: 10 targets, 7 rec
Henry finished as the TE1 while posting double-digit targets for the first time since Week 3, when he also finished at the TE1. Unfortunately, he’s seen four or fewer targets six times this season and finished outside of TE24 five times. He has been the definition of a boom-or-bust TE this season.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 10 targets, 8 rec
Rashid Shaheed: 2 targets, 0 rec
I don’t need to spend too much time on JSN, aka the WR1. So let’s talk about Shaheed. There was hope that his trade to Seattle and reunion with offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak would result in increased fantasy value for Shaheed. Unfortunately, it’s been the exact opposite, as he’s seen just eight targets for three receptions and 30 yards in his first three games as a Seahawk.
Tre Tucker: 10 targets, 3 rec
It wasn’t Brock Bowers (9) leading the Raiders in targets for Week 12. Tre Tucker saw double-digit targets for the first time in his career. They totaled a league-high 188 air yards on the week, though he only brought in three of them for 28 yards as Geno Smith was bombarded for ten sacks. It’s tough to trust Tucker as anything but a desperation dart throw for fantasy.
Jayden Higgins: 9 targets, 4 rec
Nico Collins: 3 targets, 3 rec
To be fair, the Texans didn’t need much offense as their defense ransacked the Bills on Thursday night. Still, it would have been nice to see him have a higher than 15% target share in the game, especially considering he had been above 25% in the previous three games. On the other hand, rookie Jayden Higgins led the way with nine targets and has now seen at least seven in three consecutive games. Of course, Houston’s last three games have all been started by Davis Mills, so we will have to see if these trends hold when C.J. Stroud returns.
John Metchie III: 7 targets, 6 rec
Adonai Mitchell: 7 targets, 2 rec
Metchie and Mitchell, who both started the season on different teams, tied as the Jets’ target leaders in Week 12. They were targeted, however, in very different ways. Mitchell had a ridiculous 26.4 yards aDOT, catching just two passes for 21 yards. Metchie, however, caught six of his seven passes (go ahead, say it) for 65 yards and a TD. He’s now finished as a WR17 or better in consecutive weeks and is a viable fantasy option in a pinch.
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Christian Watson: 7 targets, 5 rec
Watson has seen a steady increase in targets and target share in his five games since returning from last season’s torn ACL. That peaked in Week 12 with seven targets, which translates to a 33% target share when Jordan Love only attempts 21 passes. His pure target volume could increase as Green Bay’s number one wideout if the Packers are pushed offensively, which will certainly be possible against Detroit on Thanksgiving.
Justin Jefferson: 6 targets, 4 rec
Jordan Addison: 1 target, 0 rec
Jefferson has now seen his targets decrease for three consecutive weeks with J.J. McCarthy at QB. His six targets in Week 12 tied his season low. It’s even worse for Addison, who saw just a single target for the first time since Week 4 of his rookie season. With McCarthy entering the concussion protocol, we may get a chance to see if UDFA QB Max Brosmer can deliver the ball any better to Minnesota’s best offensive weapons.
Alec Pierce: 2 targets, 1 rec
Just as Pierce began to feel trustworthy for fantasy, he saw his fewest targets of the season. He was averaging 8.8 targets/game over the previous four, so getting just two targets in an OT loss to Kansas City is a disappointment. Still, at 54 targets on the season and with six games left, he’s got a good chance to top the career-high 78 targets he saw as a rookie in 2022.