Slamming turkey and smashing starts, let’s make this a Thanksgiving to remember. To all the American readers, happy American Thanksgiving. I hope you all enjoy the holiday and spend time around those you love. Speaking of things we love, let’s talk some fantasy football.
Last week, we nailed four selections — Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR1), Davante Adams (WR7), Jahmyr Gibbs (RB1) and Jacoby Brissett (QB7). An injured Tee Higgins (WR42) was our only miss. After a few down weeks, selecting both the WR1 and RB1 for the week gets us right back on track.
This week, we have a Thanksgiving special, where I am going to select one player from each of the Thursday and Friday games, as well as four players on Sunday. With eight selections this week, we’re going to be full of turkey and fantasy insight by the end of this.
Fantasy Football Smash Starts: Week 13
Christian Watson (WR – GB)
Returning from an ACL tear in under 12 months is a feat in itself. Returning and producing is a whole other level of impressive. Since returning in Week 8, Christian Watson has jumped right back into the fantasy scene with at least four targets and 40 yards in each game. This includes a huge performance in Week 11, where he caught four passes for 46 yards and two scores.
With star players on both offenses, you may be thinking that it’s odd to select Christian Watson. That’s fair, but these two defenses match up well with each team’s strengths. For example, both defenses are in the top 10 in fewest fantasy points allowed to running backs. The Packers are also allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. However, the Lions are allowing the fourth-most points and the second-most touchdowns to opposing wideouts. As a result, this could be a big game for the Packers’ passing offense.
Currently, rookie first-round pick Matthew Golden is dealing with multiple injuries, leaving Romeo Doubs, Watson and Dontayvion Wicks to carry the receiving load. Of the three, Watson has the most upside and has seen consistent volume each week. With Detroit scoring the second-most points per game, Jordan Love and company will need to keep up. As a result, Watson could be in for a big game.
Rashee Rice (WR – KC)
I’m not a math guy, but even I can add this one up. We have a desperate Chiefs team, taking on the Cowboys, who are averaging the fourth most points in the league, and allowing the fourth most yards. This is a massive eruption spot for multiple players on the Chiefs, but let’s specifically look at Rashee Rice.
After trading for Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson, the Cowboys’ defense has improved. However, their corners look similar to the toast I eat for breakfast. On the season, they are allowing the most fantasy points to opposing wideouts, including an average of 167 yards per game and 1.6 touchdowns to the position. Over the last four weeks, these numbers have dropped to 165 yards and 1.5 touchdowns. Not much better.
Since returning from his suspension for causing a six-car collision, injuring multiple individuals and fleeing the scene, Rice has been an integral part of the Chiefs’ offense. With four of his five games finishing within the top 10 at the position. Patrick Mahomes and Rice have rekindled their magic we saw last year. Give me Mahomes’ top target, who has led the team in targets in four of the last five weeks, in a game primed for a shootout this Thanksgiving.
Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN)
After the league put Ja’Marr Chase in a timeout for his childish behaviour, he returns alongside his best friend, Joe Burrow, on Thanksgiving. After leading Chase to a receiving triple-crown in 2024, the dynamic duo has only played one full game together this season. Although last season was magical between these two, it was highlighted by their two performances against the Ravens.
In his two games against the Ravens last year, Chase totalled 21 receptions, 457 yards and five touchdowns. Let’s break that down. That’s an average of 10.5 receptions for 228.5 yards and 2.5 touchdowns. Let’s take it another step; that’s an average of 43.2 half PPR points per game. Yes, 43.2 points. Since their bye week, the Ravens have played better on defense; however, they are still allowing an average of 11 receptions, 145 yards and 0.5 touchdowns to the wide receiver position over their last four games. Considering those four games include matchups with the Jets, Browns and Vikings, that average is impressively high. I’m going to call for Chase to single-handedly produce those numbers this week.
With the Ravens’ offense desperately needing a bounce-back game, the Bengals’ defense is the perfect get-right spot on primetime. Add in Burrow returning from his injury and Chase coming back from his one-game suspension, and the fireworks could come early this Thanksgiving. Plus, Tee Higgins is out with a concussion, leaving Chase to gobble up targets.
DeVonta Smith (WR – PHI)
It hasn’t been pretty for the Eagles’ offense all season, but DeVonta Smith has managed to pace the team in receiving yards and receptions. Last week, we saw the Eagles take a different approach and start the game as a pass-first offense. After weeks of fantasy managers hoping for this, their 21-0 lead at halftime was the validation we were all looking for. Unfortunately, when you can’t run the ball, it’s hard to close games. Ultimately, this led to the Cowboys mounting a comeback win on a last-play field goal.
This week, the Eagles get another opportunity against a defense that can be exploited. Over the last four weeks, the Bears have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers. Averaging 164.5 yards and one touchdown per game to the position, they are also allowing the eighth-most red-zone fantasy points to receivers. All this to say, the Eagles should come into this game slinging the rock. As a result, Smith has been the most consistent of their two star receivers and is in line for his fourth top-15 performance this season.
Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)
It’s hard to have a lot of confidence in Breece Hall this season. As he is counting down the days until he is not under contract with the New York Jets, he has continued to produce decent fantasy numbers. Unfortunately, the dumpster fire that is the Jets organization has made his production especially unpredictable.
In Week 12, he had 16 carries for 44 yards and caught four passes for 75 yards. Since their bye in Week 9, Hall has played at least 70% of the snaps in each game and has been the focal point of this offense. This week, they face the Falcons, who are allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs over the last eight weeks. They are also allowing the most receiving yards to running backs over that span. This includes a massive 284 total yards and three scores to Jonathan Taylor in Week 10. Although the Jets are far from being the Colts’ offense, Hall should have a nice week.
When you are talking about smash starts on the Jets, the bar has to be lowered. With only two games on the season with a touchdown, this is a great opportunity for Hall to find the end zone for the fourth time all season.
Cam Ward (QB – TEN)
I’m not sure if it’s something I had for breakfast today, or the Thanksgiving spirit is giving me some false confidence. Whatever it is, we’re calling both Breece Hall and Cam Ward smash starts this week.
We often refer to rookies receiving a post-bye rookie bump, where teams get a chance to review their film and get their rookie players more involved following their bye week. Whatever the Titans did over their bye week is working for Ward. Over his last two weeks, he has finished as the QB18 and QB4, with zero interceptions. Considering he had only finished within the top 20 once and thrown an interception in six out of nine games before their bye, this is a solid step forward.
This week, they take on the Jaguars, who seem to pull out wins and losses when you least expect them. Over the last eight weeks, the Jaguars have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and the most passing touchdowns per game. They are also allowing the seventh-most quarterback rushing touchdowns over that span. With Ward putting up at least 30 yards in each of his last two games, this could be a nice fantasy bonus.
For Ward, we are defining smash start as a top-15 quarterback finish this week. That makes him a decent QB2 streaming option for Superflex leagues or quarterback-needy 1-QB teams.
Ashton Jeanty (RB – LV)
For the third straight selection, we’re calling a player on one of the league’s worst teams a smash start. What could go wrong? With the amount of tryptophan I plan on consuming this weekend, I’m going to follow the wise words of Rick Astley and say that these selections are “never going to bring me down.” While I continue to tilt on selecting players on bad teams, here is why Ashton Jeanty could be in line for his second consecutive RB1 performance.
The Chargers can be one of the better defenses in the league. However, since Week 6, they have allowed the most rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs. They are also allowing the ninth-most rushing yards and fifth-most red-zone fantasy points to backs. With the Raiders having little to be thankful for this year, they may want to showcase their star rookie rusher in a plus matchup.
Since their bye week in Week 8, Jeanty has played 80% or more of the snaps in three out of four games. He has also had at least five targets in each of the last four games, totalling 22 receptions and two receiving scores over that span. With nothing working for the Raiders, Jeanty has managed to overcome the Browns, Jaguars and Broncos defenses since their bye, putting up a top-15 performance in each.
You may not want to watch the Raiders this weekend, as you might lose your appetite. However, Jeanty may give you a reason to be thankful.
RJ Harvey (RB – DEN)
Without J.K. Dobbins, RJ Harvey did not have the game fantasy managers were hoping for. Having said that, they were going against the Chiefs, who are one of the best defenses against opposing running backs. Coming out of their bye week, they get a matchup on the other end of the spectrum.
The Commanders have not just taken a step back from last year; they have jumped backwards as a team. Specifically, their defense has not been able to stop big plays, with many of their aging defenders appearing to struggle to keep up with explosive playmakers. That’s exactly what makes Harvey a great option this week.
Despite his limited production, Harvey played 61% of the snaps. His previous high this season was 41% in Week 4. Additionally, coming out of their bye week, we could see a classic post-bye rookie bump. If there was ever a matchup to see this come to fruition, it may be this one.
The Commanders have allowed the third-most fantasy points to the position since Week 6. Over that span, they have allowed the second-most rushing yards, fourth-most rushing attempts and second-most receiving touchdowns at the position. It’s hard to say that Harvey will be in the top 10 at the position this week, but everything points to him being a locked-in RB2.
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