Thanksgiving gave us a great triple-header of football games and there is apparently a Black Friday game later today as well. With a few contests already in the books, fantasy decisions are getting tight heading into Sunday. These are my biggest stands and fades for Week 13.
Quarterback
Start: Bo Nix, Broncos
Nix hasn’t necessarily taken the next step this year, but he is more than capable of picking apart bad defenses. In fact, that is almost the only time he has put up good fantasy numbers this year. Nix has posted four QB1 weeks. Three of them have come against bottom-10 defenses by fantasy points allowed to QBs. His two best games were against the two worst defenses in the NFL by that measure: the Cowboys and Giants. Luckily for Nix and his fantasy backers, the Broncos take on the Commanders this week. They rank 30th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. No defense has given up a higher EPA per dropback than the Commanders this year.
Start: Justin Herbert, Chargers
The Chargers’ offense has come apart at the seams since left tackle Joe Alt went down for the season in Week 9. Herbert was pressured on 43 percent of his dropbacks over the next two weeks. That is the fifth-highest rate during that stretch and he averaged a measly 5.3 YPA when pressured in those games. This may prove to be a fatal flaw in the long run, but things clear up versus the Raiders on Sunday. Vegas currently sits at 20th in pressure rate and 31st in sack conversion rate on defense. Sportsbooks are bought in on a temporary rebound from LA this week, assigning them a 25-point team total. This is a great, though possibly brief, buy-low moment on Herbert.
Sit: Brock Purdy, 49ers
Per usual, Purdy is doing wonders in the spreadsheets this year. That level of play, however, hasn’t extended to his reps under pressure. His 4.8 YPA when pressured ranks 34th out of 41 qualified quarterbacks. He has two touchdowns under pressure compared to four picks. The interceptions aren’t fluky either. Pro Football Focus has charted him with the fifth-highest Turnover Worthy Play rate when pressured. Now he gets a road game in Cleveland against a Browns pass-rush that is generating pressure at the sixth-highest rate. No team converts pressures to sacks at a higher clip than the Browns. Vegas is also concerned, giving the 49ers a measly 20.5-point team total.
Sit: C.J. Stroud, Texans
Stroud is currently the QB20 by points per game and has just one top-10 weekly finish to his name. Vegas has the Texans with a 20.5-point team total, placing them behind Kirk Cousins’ Falcons and maybe Aaron Rodgers’ Steelers. His opponent, Indianapolis, ranks ninth in EPA per dropback allowed. Stroud is a clear fade in his first game back from a severe concussion.
Running Back
Start: Travis Etienne, Jaguars
It’s hard to find a better spot for Etienne than a date with the Titans. Tennessee ranks 28th in EPA per rush attempt allowed and only four teams are giving up more fantasy points to opposing backs. The Jags are favored by 6.5 points this week, which should mean they will get plenty of chances to establish the run while playing from ahead. Etienne took control of the backfield against last week, seeing 60 percent of the carries on a 64 percent snap share. It was his highest snap share since Week 2.
Start: RJ Harvey, Broncos
Harvey dropped a dud in his first game without J.K. Dobbins in the lineup, going for just 30 yards on 11 attempts. The role, however, was solid. He earned 61 percent of the team’s rush attempts on an identical snap share. Harvey did cede the goal line work to Jaleel McLuaghlin, but I’m betting on that being an aberration. McLaughlin scored after Harvey touched the ball three plays in a row, the third of which got Denver inside the 10-yard line. The rookie still led Denver with a 63 percent snap rate on short down and distance plays, indicating they trust him on the high-leverage snaps. Now Harvey gets his time to shine versus a Washington defense that is just as bad on the ground as it is through the air.
Sit: Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots
Stevenson returned to the lineup last week, only to play second fiddle to TreVeyon Henderson. The rookie led New England with 18 carries compared to just six for Stevenson. He also ran the bulk of the routes, leaving Stevenson with a 23 percent route rate and a six percent target share. Things could change as Stevenson puts distance between himself and the toe injury, but fantasy managers should take a wait-and-see approach when it comes to Stevenson.
Sit: Woody Marks, Texans
Marks has taken over the Houston backfield. It just isn’t worth all that much. He has dominated the carries for Houston over the past three weeks and has turned that role into 10 fantasy points per game. Marks ranks 42nd in yards after contact per carry and 25th in breakaway rate. He is also outside the top 20 running backs in yards per route run. The Houston offensive environment simply isn’t conducive to running back production, leaving Marks in the RB3 ranks despite his RB2 workload.
Wide Receiver
Start: Emeka Egbuka, Bucs
Things could (will) get really ugly this week with Teddy Bridgewater expected to draw the start for Tampa Bay. I don’t care. Egbuka has racked up a 30 percent target share since the Bucs’ Week 9 bye. Over the past three weeks, Egbuka has earned the fourth-most expected fantasy points among wide receivers. You can’t fade a role this elite, even if Egbuka’s quarterback is a better actor than passer at this point in his career.
Start: Troy Franklin, Broncos
If we’re firing up Nix this week, you better believe we’re bringing his No. 1 receiver along for the ride. That player, of course, is Frankin. Franklin has out-targeted Courtland Sutton in six straight games. He has a 27 percent target share and a monstrous 48 percent air yards share over his past five appearances. This isn’t happening by chance either. Franklin’s first read target share of 28 percent during that stretch leads the Broncos.
Sit: Jordan Addison, Viking
Max Brosmer will almost certainly be better than J.J. McCarthy. The question is by how much? There have been 13 UDFA quarterbacks to make their first career start as a rookie over the past 25 years. On average, they threw for 194 yards and 1.1 touchdowns on 17.1 completions. McCarthy is averaging 14.3 completions for 155 yards and one touchdown per game. Addison has averaged 6.2 fantasy points per game with McCarthy under center. The Vikings will likely go from the worst passing game in the NFL under JJM to run-of-the-mill bad with Bromser. That will help Addison, but I don’t know if it will be enough to pull him out of irrelevance and back into the WR3 ranks overnight.
Sit: Wan’Dale Robinson, Giants
This does not feel good to write, but I’m going to do it anyway. If you have Robinson on your fantasy roster, you want anyone other than Jaxson Dart starting for the Giants. Robinson has played five games without Dart. He has scored over 28 fantasy points in two of those contests.
Robinson’s season-high in Dart starts is 20.4 PPR points and he has topped 16 points just once with Dart on the sticks. Both Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston just chuck the ball deep and pray. It’s not a winning football strategy, but it puts up numbers in fantasy circles. All three of Robinson’s highest aDOT games this year have come without Dart at quarterback.
Tight End
Start: Oronde Gadsden, Chargers
The Chargers face a Vegas defense that uses zone coverage on 78.1 percent of its pass defense snaps. That is the fifth-highest rate in the league. Gadsden leads LA with a stellar 2.99 yards per route run versus zone. He ranks second among all tight ends in both PFF receiving grade and YPRR when facing zone coverage.
Start: Harold Fannin, Browns
In his first career start, Shedeur Sanders locked on to his top pass-catcher, throwing to Fannin six times. That was good for a 33 percent target share, a mark that easily led the Browns in Week 12. It was also Fannin’s highest target share of the year. His 81 percent route rate was also a season-high when looking at just the games David Njoku has been active for. Fannin is largely a floor play, but I find it hard to believe a tight end who can see a third of his team’s targets in a given game doesn’t have any ceiling.
Sit: A.J. Barner, Seahawks
Barner popped up for a 10-catch game two weeks ago. The high-volume affair was entirely fueled by negative game script as the Seahawks attempted to mount a late comeback against the Rams. He turned back into a pumpkin last week, scoring 3.8 PPR points versus the Titans. Barner ran just 64 percent of the routes and earned a 17 percent target share. His role is too inconsistent for weekly streaming consideration.
Sit: Zach Ertz, Commanders
You’re not going to believe this, but Commanders’ pass-catchers are far worse for fantasy purposes when Jayden Daniels is out.
Ertz drops from 11.3 PPR points with Daniels to 7.2 in Marcus Mariota starts. Ertz has yet to finish as a TE1 in a Mariota start this year.