Prisco’s Week 13 NFL picks: Colts edge Texans, Bills over Steelers

Week 12 wasn’t awful for me when it came to my NFL picks, but it wasn’t bragging time either.

I was 12-2 straight up, which I will take, but just 6-8 against the spread, which I hate. There were some late-game shenanigans that got me there.

As it is, I am now 91-87 ATS and 122-55-1 straight up, which are solid records, if not special.

This being Thanksgiving Week is always a challenge because there are four games before the weekend even gets here.

The three Thanksgiving Day games and the Black Friday game all have intrigue with the Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys on CBS being the most intriguing. The ratings for that should be through the roof.

I like the Chiefs in that one, but here are the rest of my picks this week.

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Sunday, 1 p.m. ET CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

This will be Shedeur Sanders making his first home start for the Browns. He was solid last week in the victory over the Raiders. But it’s the Browns defense that will be the difference here. They are suffocating. Look for Brock Purdy to have troubles against them, yet he will find a way to win a close one late.

Pick: 49ers 21, Browns 20 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

This is a be-careful game for the Jaguars with the Colts on deck next week. It’s also a second-consecutive road game at a place they haven’t played well in their history. Look for the Titans to hang around in this one, but the Jaguars will pull it out late.

Pick: Jaguars 21, Titans 17 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud remains in the concussion protocol, which means he might not play. That would mean another start for Davis Mills, who has played well. It’s the Texans defense that has keyed the team’s resurgence. The Colts lost to the Chiefs last week, but they will do something here that they needed to do more of in that game: Give it to Jonathan Taylor. Look for the Colts to win a tough, close one. 

Pick: Colts 23, Texans 21 | Odds via BetMGM

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

The Falcons are out on the road for a second straight week, which is a challenge. They beat the Saints last week, thanks to the defense. That defense will play well here too, but I think the Jets defense will as well. It’s a low-scoring game with the Jets pulling off the upset at home. 

Pick: Jets 19, Falcons 16 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

The Dolphins are coming off a bye and won two straight before that. They’ve done it with a good running game with De’Von Achane and better defense. The Saints have offensive issues that will come into play here. Miami has seemed to right things and that will show up. Miami takes it.

Pick: Dolphins 28, Saints 16 | Odds via BetMGM

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield suffered a shoulder sprain Sunday night that puts his status in doubt for this one. That means it could be Teddy Bridgewater. He is more than capable. The Cardinals have had success with Jacoby Brissett throwing it, but they are one-dimensional. The Tampa Bay defense wasn’t good against the Rams, but I think they bounce back here. Bucs take it. 

Pick: Bucs 27, Cardinals 20 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

This is a long trip for the Rams, but they get a Panthers team coming off a West Coast Monday night game. That evens it out. The Rams have an MVP leader in Matt Stafford on offense and a defense playing at a high level. Bryce Young wasn’t good Monday night and he will struggle here too. Rams take it but the Panthers hang around behind their defense.

Pick: Rams 24, Panthers 16 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

This is the revenge game for Sam Darnold against the team he played with in 2025. He led that Vikings team to the playoffs and they didn’t want him back. Now he’s playing at a high level, while the Vikings have quarterback issues. With struggling J.J. McCarthy in the concession protocol, this could be rookie Max Brosmer making his first start. That’s tough enough on the road, but in Seattle it’s brutal. Seahawks big. 

Pick: Seahawks 30, Vikings 9 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

This is a have-to for both these teams. Both are coming off road losses. The Steelers might have Aaron Rodgers back in this one, which they need. The Bills will have extra rest after playing last Thursday. That will give them time to get back on track. I think the Bills passing game will light up the Steelers pass defense. Bills take it. 

Pick: Bills 31, Steelers 22 | Odds via BetMGM

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

The Chargers are coming off a bye, while the Raiders are coming off a horrible showing in a loss to the Browns. That offensive showing led to the firing of coordinator Chip Kelly. It won’t matter. The offense is lifeless because the line is awful. The Chargers don’t have a great line either, but give me Justin Herbert over Geno Smith. Chargers take it. 

Pick: Chargers 24, Raiders 10 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC 

The Commanders will again be without Jayden Daniels against a Broncos team coming off a bye. The Broncos defense is nasty, while the Commanders is not. That defense will be the difference in this game. They will shut down Marcus Mariota and the Commanders offense. 

Pick: Broncos 22, Commanders 10 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

The Patriots are riding a nine-game winning streak, while the Giants have been eliminated from playoff contention. Where is the motivation for the Giants, especially playing on the road for consecutive weeks? Patriots and Drake Maye will head to their bye after this one on a 10-game winning streak as they take care of the Giants. 

Pick: Patriots 31, Giants 21 | Odds via BetMGM