Well, here we are.
Week 14 is the end of the road in most fantasy football leagues—the final week of the regular season. When the dust settles, some teams will move on to the fantasy playoffs. Others will pack it in for the year. For some managers, the matter is settled—for better or worse. But for many more, nothing has been decided just yet. Win this week, and they move on. Lose, and that’s that.
This week more than any other, defense matters.
Granted, if you’re reading this column, you already care more about team defense than many fantasy managers. For some, it’s like picking out underwear—they just reach into the drawer, and so long as they are clean, good enough.
But not you, intrepid reader. You realize that this week, every single point is critical. That fielding the best possible lineup at every position this week is the difference between moving on and having a shot at glory or kicking yourself until next summer because you started the wrong quarterback in Week 9.
This week, even kickers matter. Defenses most assuredly do.
And you are looking for the flyest pair of britches in that drawer.
(It’s not the Speedo. It’s never the Speedo.)
Breaking down all of the NFL’s biggest Week 13 storylines, including Justin Herbert’s broken finger.
THE NO-DOUBTERS
Denver Broncos (at Las Vegas Raiders)
Want to talk about two teams hurtling in opposite directions at Warp 6? May I present the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders. The Broncos have won nine straight, rank fifth in the league in total defense, lead the NFL with 51 sacks and sit ninth in fantasy points at the position. Meanwhile, the Raiders have lost six in a row, Geno Smith has been sacked approximately 38 times the past two games and only the Titans have given up more fantasy points per game to defenses.
Seattle Seahawks (at Atlanta Falcons)
After last week’s fantasy bonanza where the Seahawks defense was a top-five fantasy player overall, Seattle sits atop D/ST Mountain as we enter Week 14. The Seahawks are They will likely remain in that spot after given their opponent this week. The Falcons offense has become the Bijan Robinson show–with Kirk Cousins under center, Atlanta has struggled moving the ball through the air. Given that Seattle is third in the league in run defense at just 88.8 yards per game, that doesn’t bode well for the home team.
Cleveland Browns (vs. Tennessee Titans)
Cleveland Browns edge-rusher Myles Garrett may post top-10 numbers for Cleveland’s defense by himself this week. The Browns are a terrible team with a really good defense anchored by a generational talent facing a 53-man dumpster fire of a football team that leads the league in both sacks allowed (48) and fantasy points per game surrendered to defenses. Garrett needs four sacks to break the single-season record of 22.5. He may get them all Sunday.
Los Angeles Rams (at Arizona Cardinals)
Fantasy managers who rolled out the Rams last week in a must-win game can’t be happy after the Panthers stunned L.A. in Carolina with a 31-point outburst in the Rams’ worst defensive effort fantasy-wise of the season. But like a quarterback who just threw a pick, it’s short memory time—an angry Rams team now takes on a Cardinals squad that has dropped nine of 10, had all kinds of problems protecting the quarterback (42 sacks allowed—fourth-most in the NFL) and has given up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to defenses this season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. New Orleans Saints)
The Tampa defense doesn’t get a lot of run, and they are middle of the pack in a lot of statistical categories. But the Buccaneers have quietly put together a solid fantasy campaign—Tampa sits eighth among all defenses in fantasy points after 13 weeks. The Buccaneers are trying to hold off the Carolina Panthers (no, really) and win the NFC South. The Saints are playing out the string with a 26-year-old rookie quarterback and one of the league’s worst ground games. New Orleans has also given up the third-most fantasy points per game to defenses on the season.
Eric Samulski breaks down his fantasy football defense rankings for Week 14 of the NFL season
STREAMERS OF THE WORLD, UNITE!
Indianapolis Colts (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
Much like the Colts as a whole, the defense has tailed off of late after a hot start—Indy was second in fantasy points over the first five weeks of the season, but the team has ranked outside the top-20 over the last month. However, the Colts haven’t laid any week-killing eggs even in that slump, and that can matter in a must-win week. Add in at least a marginally favorable fantasy matchup with the Jaguars, and in a week sorely short on matchup plays the Colts aren’t a bad one.
Green Bay Packers (vs. Chicago Bears)
Sunday’s showdown at Lambeau Field is one of Week 14’s most fascinating matchups. Will the first-place Bears cast off the shackles of a Packers team that has rained on Chicago’s parade for years, or will Green Bay once again play the role of dream-crusher. Depending on how you feel about that question, either of these defenses could be decent matchup plays this week. But in a coin-flip situation like this, my money is usually going to be on the home team—especially after what they showed in Detroit on Thanksgiving.
Pittsburgh Steelers (at Baltimore Ravens)
This is another vital Week 14 matchup where the fantasy defenses involved are all but interchangeable. Arguments can be made for both—especially after Pittsburgh’s miserable offensive effort last week against the Buffalo Bills. But the Steelers have been more productive for fantasy managers this season, ranking third for the season and fourth over the last month. And just in case you haven’t been paying attention, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson isn’t anywhere close to right. Not presently.
Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Indianapolis Colts)
This is a play that will likely end either in a fat stat line or abject misery—there’s not a ton of middle ground. The Jaguars are seventh for the season in fantasy points, largely because of their propensity for takeaways. Jacksonville has cracked double-digits in fantasy points in each of the last three games. But when those turnovers dry up, the Jaguars’ fantasy production can, too—and while the Colts have slowed somewhat the team is still dead last in fantasy points per game surrendered to defenses.
Washington Commanders (at Minnesota Vikings)
The Commanders showed some moxie in last week’s loss to Denver, but Washington has struggled defensively—the team is a bottom-five defense in terms of both yards allowed and fantasy points at the position. This isn’t a play for those with a weak stomach. But there are four teams on a bye this week, so in some deeper leagues managers are sifting through dirt in the hopes of striking gold. Facing a Vikings team allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to defenses is as good a dart throw as any.
CAVEAT EMPTOR, FOLKS
Houston Texans (at Kansas City Chiefs)
The highest-scoring fantasy defense is a hard sit, especially after watching them jackstomp the Buffalo Bills a couple of weeks ago. Houston has the best defense in the NFL in terms of both yards and points allowed and sixth in the NFL in sacks with 34. But we just saw a pedestrian effort for fantasy managers from the Texans in a bad Week 13 matchup with the Indianapolis Colts. Now Houston has to travel to Arrowhead to face a desperate Chiefs team. Do you want to bet your fantasy season on the demise of Patrick Mahomes?
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on X at @IDPGodfather.