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Zach Kram
Even as the format for the NBA All-Star Game continues to change, being named an All-Star is a point of pride for players, a validation for their fans and a historical marker of legacy.
The initial selection process for the new USA vs. the World format this season will work almost the same as it has in the past, just with the tweak of being positionless. Then, if the class of 24 All-Stars doesn’t split perfectly into 16 American and eight international players — from a combination of fans, media and players voting for the starters and coaches picking the reserves — commissioner Adam Silver will add extra players to the roster to meet those minimums. For instance, if the All-Star rosters include 15 Americans and nine international players, Silver would add one more American to the group.
Now that the season is about halfway to the selection of those All-Stars (the game will be played on Feb. 15), it’s time to take a survey of the field of candidates. As some stars have started to separate themselves from the pack, let’s examine who’s almost definitely in, who’s on the bubble and who’s in danger of missing out on an All-Star appearance — unless they turn their season around quickly.
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Eastern Conference | Western Conference
Nationality breakdown | Slow starts
Eastern Conference
Near-locks
Seven of these 12 All-Star spots are near-locks, meaning only a lengthy injury absence or severe slump could knock these players off the roster.
Antetokounmpo, Brunson and Mitchell are easy choices, as All-Star mainstays turning in typically stellar seasons. Maxey leads the conference in scoring (32.3 points per game) after another individual leap. And Brown, who has made three consecutive All-Star teams, has boosted his scoring to a career-high 28.4 points per game with Boston teammate Jayson Tatum out. Despite taking on a much higher offensive volume this season — Brown’s 36% usage rate ranks third in the NBA, behind Antetokounmpo and Luka Doncic — his efficiency has actually increased.
The final two near-locks are the leaders of the team with the conference’s best record. Cunningham has essentially identical numbers to his All-Star campaign last season. And while the rosters are now positionless, it’s worth noting that Duren, who ranks sixth in the NBA in player efficiency rating, has been the best center in the East this season. Duren’s two-way play is a big reason for the Pistons’ presence atop the Eastern Conference standings, so he’s a worthy second All-Star for Detroit.
On the bubble
The cases for the best All-Star candidates in this group can be summarized in a single sentence. For instance, Barnes has been the best all-around player on the conference’s third-best team, and Ingram is their leading scorer. Giddey’s nearly averaging a triple-double, with 20.5 points, 10.0 rebounds and 9.3 assists per game. Johnson has exploded in both the box score (22.9 points, 9.8 rebounds, 7.3 assists and 1.6 steals) and advanced stats (63% true shooting, up from 57% last year).
But the players in this tier aren’t locks yet, either, because they haven’t sustained this level of production before or because they must answer one key question between now and February.
Consider both Heat players who appear in this group. Powell was a fringe All-Star candidate last season, as he surged with the Clippers, and he has been even better in Miami, averaging a career-high 24.7 PPG and making 44.4% of his 3-pointers. As long as Powell can remain this productive now with Tyler Herro’s return to the Heat lineup, he’ll be a deserving first-time All-Star in his age-32 season.
Adebayo defines the All-Star bubble, having made three teams and missed three teams over the past six seasons despite having similar statistics every year. His 2025-26 performance is more of the same: His statistics are a bit shy of typical All-Stars, but his elite defense can make up for any offensive weakness.
Mobley occupies a similar space to Adebayo this season, as the reigning Defensive Player of the Year is putting up decent counting stats but has seen his efficiency plummet. Finally, Wagner has been steady and productive for the Magic; he likely would have been an All-Star if he hadn’t suffered an injury in December 2024, and he’s right back on that pace in 2025-26.
Other players like the Knicks’ Mikal Bridges, the Indiana Pacers’ Pascal Siakam and Charlotte Hornets rookie Kon Knueppel could make a run as the first half continues, but this bullet-pointed list represents the top options for now. Knueppel is a fun sleeper All-Star candidate, with his 18.4 PPG and 41.3% 3-point shooting on high volume, but he would be just the third rookie in the 21st century to make an All-Star team. (The other two were No. 1 picks Yao Ming and Blake Griffin, the latter of whom had a “redshirt” year in the NBA before playing his rookie season.)
If I had to pick the 12 East All-Stars today, the group would include the seven near-locks plus Adebayo, Barnes, Giddey, Johnson and Powell, with Adebayo as the last man in and Wagner as the hardest cut.
Western Conference
Near-locks
Durant (15 All-Star nods in a row when healthy), Curry (11), Jokic (seven), Gilgeous-Alexander (three) and Edwards (three) are perennial All-Stars enjoying excellent individual seasons, so they can already be inked onto the 2026 All-Star list.
Doncic missed out last season, but he was an All-Star five years in a row before that. Given that the popular Lakers point guard leads the NBA in scoring this season, he’s lock No. 6.
Next up is Wembanyama, a 2025 All-Star who should gain easy entry again, as long as he returns from his calf injury in enough time to reach a minimal games threshold. (Hopefully, he won’t be disqualified from the skills competition again this season.) And Sengun has been the best player on the Rockets, who have the league’s second-best net rating. His averages of 22.3 points, 9.1 rebounds and 6.9 assists more than warrant inclusion on his second All-Star roster.
On the bubble
The next tier of West All-Star candidates splits into two groups with one thing in common: They’re all posting ludicrous numbers. How do you say no to any of these players?
The first group is single stars on teams that are unlikely to contend for a Finals berth. Avdija leads the league in drives — Gilgeous-Alexander led the league for the past five seasons but ranks second to Avdija right now — and is averaging 25.8 points, 7.1 rebounds and 5.8 assists on strong efficiency. Booker is in a recent slump and left Monday’s game early with a groin injury, but is still posting 25.7 points and 6.9 assists for the most surprising winner in the West. Harden is scoring at his best rate since he was a Rocket (27.7 PPG) and ranks fifth in the league in assists (8.4 per game). And among Western Conference players, Markkanen ranks sixth at 28 PPG.
The second group is secondary stars on winning teams. Murray, long heralded as the best active player never to make an All-Star team, has finally started a season hot, averaging career highs in both points (24.0) and assists (6.6). Holmgren is the betting favorite for Defensive Player of the Year because of Wembanyama’s injury, and he has made a quiet offensive leap, boosting his true shooting to an elite 65%. Randle is scoring 23.0 PPG and operating with career-best efficiency. And Reaves’ 28.8 points, 6.8 assists and 5.8 rebounds per game signify his immense breakout in Los Angeles.
It’s unfortunately probable that injuries will cull this list between now and February. The first draft of this group included Aaron Gordon, but his All-Star chances evaporated with a hamstring injury that will keep him out at least a month.
For now, however, the lesson of this exercise is that the West has too many qualified players for too few All-Star spots. There’s a decent possibility, for example, that Murray still won’t make an All-Star team, despite his impressive start, because the competition around him has also gone up a level.
If I had to pick the 12 West All-Stars today, they would be the eight near-locks plus Avdija, Booker, Holmgren and Reaves, with Holmgren getting the last spot over Harden. While I don’t typically weigh team performance heavily when thinking about All-Star votes, the Thunder’s historically great 20-1 start suggests they’re much more deserving of a second All-Star than the 5-16 Clippers are of a single representative, even though Harden has superior individual stats and the Clips are hosting this year’s festivities.
2:00
Reaves, Doncic combine for 73 as Lakers top Mavs
Austin Reaves unleashes 38 points while Luka Doncic adds 35 in the Lakers’ 129-119 win over the Mavericks.
Nationality breakdown
Looking at the list of candidates, it shouldn’t be difficult to select eight international players to team up to take on the Americans. Six of the near-locks would play for the international team: Antetokounmpo (Greece), Doncic (Slovenia), Gilgeous-Alexander (Canada), Jokic (Serbia), Sengun (Turkey) and Wembanyama (France). And between Giddey (Australia), Wagner (Germany), Avdija (Israel), Markkanen (Finland) and Murray (Canada), odds are that at least two more international representatives will grab a spot.
If anything, it seems more likely that more than eight international players will be named All-Stars this year, which would require Silver to add extra Americans to ensure at least 16 players are available for the two United States teams at the All-Star festivities.
Examining the list of international players, moreover, underscores that the international team should be heavy favorites to win at the Intuit Dome in February. The no-doubt top four players in the NBA, who are all off to historically great starts this season, are foreign-born, and Wembanyama might be the fifth-best player in the league. If those players take the All-Star event seriously, they should easily handle a pair of American squads whose strength is diluted by splitting the best domestic players across two teams.
Slow starters
A number of NBA stars haven’t appeared in this piece yet, because their level of play in the first six weeks of this season doesn’t warrant serious All-Star consideration. They’ll need both health and a sustained hot streak to reenter the conversation before the actual selection process in a couple of months.
One such player is Karl-Anthony Towns, who has struggled to find his footing in new Knicks coach Mike Brown’s offense. Towns is a five-time All-Star, but he has shown considerable game-to-game inconsistency this season, and his 33% mark from 3-point range is the worst of his career.
Far more candidates don’t profile as either near-locks or on the current bubble because of a combination of injury and underperformance. In no particular order, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Joel Embiid, Jalen Williams, Paolo Banchero, Kawhi Leonard, Jaren Jackson Jr., Domantas Sabonis, De’Aaron Fox, LaMelo Ball, Trae Young, Ja Morant, Darius Garland and Tyler Herro are all recent All-Stars who aren’t really in contention now.
The most interesting All-Star case might belong to James, who entered this season with 21 consecutive All-Star selections. James missed the Lakers’ first 14 games with sciatica, however, and he’s a distant third on his own team in points since he returned. He has his work cut out for him to qualify for his 22nd All-Star team on the merits. But the last time James wasn’t an All-Star was his rookie season of 2003-04; for reference, the East’s leading scorers in that year’s All-Star Game were Jamaal Magloire, Kenyon Martin and Jermaine O’Neal.
Finally, now that future Hall of Fame point guard Chris Paul has officially announced his retirement, one wonders whether the new format will leave room for Paul to receive an honorary All-Star designation in his final season, as happened for Dirk Nowitzki and Dwyane Wade in 2018-19. Paul is a 12-time All-Star, and according to Basketball Reference, he has the career record with 128 assists in All-Star Games, one ahead of Magic Johnson’s 127.