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    Home»Baseball»Everything to know about 2026 MLB Draft Lottery: Odds, which teams are eligible, more
    Baseball

    Everything to know about 2026 MLB Draft Lottery: Odds, which teams are eligible, more

    By December 9, 20255 Mins Read
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    Everything to know about 2026 MLB Draft Lottery: Odds, which teams are eligible, more
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    MLB’s fourth amateur Draft Lottery will take place Tuesday night at the Winter Meetings in Orlando. MLB and the MLB Players Association agreed to the lottery as part of the current collective bargaining agreement in an effort to curb tanking and anti-competitive behavior in general. The top six picks are now awarded through the lottery.

    The Nationals won the Draft Lottery last offseason and received the No. 1 pick in the 2025 Draft despite finishing with the league’s sixth-worst record. Washington took shortstop Eli Willits with the No. 1 pick. The Mariners also won big when they moved up from the No. 14 pick to the No. 3 pick. The 121-loss White Sox got bumped back to the No. 10 pick for revenue sharing reasons, which we’ll explain in a moment.

    2026 MLB Draft Lottery streaming info

    Date: Tuesday, Dec. 9 | Time: 5:30 p.m. ET
    TV channel: MLB Network | Live stream: Fubo (try for free)

    The lottery itself will be held at approximately 4 p.m. ET. The results will then be announced on MLB Network a little later. Here now is everything you need to know going into Tuesday’s Draft Lottery.

    Odds for No. 1 pick

    The 18 non-postseason teams in 2025 each have a chance at the No. 1 selection in the 2026 Draft through the lottery, though the worst teams have the best odds. Here are the odds for the No. 1 pick:

    Ties are broken using the previous year’s record. That’s why the Rangers (78-84 in 2024) have better 2026 Draft Lottery odds than the Giants (80-82 in 2024) even though the two clubs finished with identical 81-81 records in 2025.

    Why are the Rockies not eligible?

    Despite going 43-119 this past season, baseball’s worst record by 17 games, the Rockies are not eligible for a lottery pick in next year’s draft. That’s because teams cannot pick in the lottery in more than two consecutive years and Colorado had the No. 3 pick in 2024 and the No. 4 pick in 2025. That bumps them out of the lottery in 2026. The earliest the Rockies can pick is No. 10 overall.

    Why are the Angels and Nationals not eligible?

    Teams that pay into the league’s revenue-sharing program cannot hold lottery picks in consecutive years. The Nationals (No. 1 pick in 2025) and the Angels (No. 2 pick in 2025) both fall into this bucket. They pay revenue sharing, so last year’s lottery picks bump them out of this year’s lottery. Like the Rockies, the Angels and Nationals cannot pick any earlier than No. 10 overall. This rule is why the White Sox were ineligible for the 2025 Draft Lottery despite losing 121 games in 2024. They pay revenue sharing and had the No. 5 pick in 2024.

    The rest of the first round

    Previously, the Draft order was set by the reverse order of the previous year’s standings. It was nice and easy. Now the top six picks are determined through the lottery, the remaining 12 non-postseason teams then pick in reverse order of the standings (picks 7-18), and the 12 postseason teams pick in order of their finish (picks 19-30). 

    Furthermore, within each “tier” of postseason finish, those teams pick in reverse order of the standings, with teams that receive revenue sharing picking before teams that pay into revenue sharing. Got it? Good. Here is the order for the No. 19-30 picks:

    Wild Card Series losers
    19. Reds (83-79, receive revenue sharing)
    20. Guardians (88-74, receive revenue sharing)
    21. Red Sox (89-73, pay revenue sharing)
    22. Padres (90-72, pay revenue sharing)

    Division Series losers
    23. Tigers (87-75, receive revenue sharing)
    24. Cubs (92-70, pay revenue sharing)
    25. Yankees (94-68, pay revenue sharing)
    26. Phillies (96-66, pay revenue sharing)

    Championship Series losers
    27. Mariners (90-72, receive revenue sharing)
    28. Brewers (97-65, receive revenue sharing)

    World Series loser
    29. Blue Jays (94-68)

    World Series winner
    30. Dodgers (93-69)

    This order is not final. The Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees will all have their first-round pick moved back 10 spots because of their competitive balance tax (CBT) status. Teams that exceed the third CBT threshold ($281 million in 2025) have their first rounder pushed back 10 spots. The Yankees and Dodgers will get bumped back from Nos. 25 and 30 to Nos. 35 and 40, respectively. 

    We don’t know where the Mets will pick yet because they’re eligible for the lottery. Lottery picks are not subject to CBT penalties. If the Mets move into the top six picks in the lottery, the penalty will be applied to their second-round pick, and that will be moved back instead. New York keeps a lottery pick. Otherwise their first rounder moves back 10 spots.

    The rest of the draft

    Only the first round is set using the Lottery. The order of rounds 2-20 is the reverse order of this year’s standings, so the MLB-worst Rockies will have the first pick of the second round regardless of how the lottery shakes out. There are also free-agent compensation and competitive balance round picks scattered throughout the draft. Those additional picks will be determined throughout the offseason. Tuesday’s lottery will set the first-round order. Everything after that is TBD as the offseason plays out.

    Draft eligible lottery MLB Odds Teams
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