Week 14 is in the books. The fantasy playoffs are on tap and things are changing faster than ever in the fantasy landscape. These are the 10 storylines you need to know heading into Week 15.
1) Jalen Hurts’ meltdown
You have to admit, this one was a little funny.
It was the first time a player had two turnovers on one play since 1978. If you were in a tight race to make the fantasy playoffs with Hurts on your team, this play was stomach-churning… as were the three other Hurts turnovers. This was a stark departure from Hurts’ style throughout the year. For all of his faults, Hurts’ 1.9 percent Turnover-Worthy Play rate has not been one of them. That mark is the fifth-lowest in the league. Hurts’ accuracy, on the other hand, has been an issue. He ranks 22nd out of 44 qualified quarterbacks in completion percent over expected. Pro Football Focus has charted him as the QB27 in Accurate Throw rate. I don’t foresee any more five-turnover games for Hurts, but that’s not to say the team is playing championship-caliber offense.
2) The Chiefs’ implosion continues
I wrote about this a few weeks ago, so I won’t belabor the point. Patrick Mahomes has played far better with Rashee Rice off the field over the past two years. This notably shows up in his interception totals—which skyrocket with Rice out there—and his rushing, which improves sans Rice.
In true desperation mode, Mahomes did manage 57 rushing yards in his losing effort versus the Texans, bucking that trend. The interceptions, however, kept flowing. Mahomes was picked three times by the Texans’ stalwart defense. As I previously noted, the issue on these turnovers wasn’t Mahomes forcing the ball to Rice when he wasn’t open. Rice wasn’t the intended target on any of the picks. They were simply poor or ill-advised throws from Pat, with one awful drop by Travis Kelce that turned into an interception.
The Chiefs’ lack of a running game is undoubtedly forcing Mahomes into spots where he opts for a bad decision. Kansas City’s ground game has tricked the spreadsheets this year. They rank just above league-average in EPA per rush attempt. Looking at only running back carries with four or more yards to go, they drop to 25th. This is to say Mahomes can run and the backs can convert short plays, but they have not shot at building momentum on early downs. Lastly, Mahomes hasn’t been able to bail out his team with miracle deep passes like he did in his glory days. Mahomes has one passing touchdown that traveled 20+ yards in the air compared to three interceptions. The Chiefs have been all but eliminated from the playoff race with their loss and a Monday Night win by the Chargers. Maybe they should try out Brashard Smith (or even Dameon Pierce) on the ground and see if they can rekindle Tyquan Thornton as a viable deep threat through the air. At this point, what could it hurt?
Blake Corum and Ryan Flournoy were two of the biggest fantasy surprises of the week. Both second-year players topped 100 yards and found the end zone, making them two of the best waiver wire adds ahead of Week 15.
3) Is Jonathan Taylor doomed?
Yes. Next question.
Really, though, it could get very bleak very quickly with Daniel Jones done for the year. There are 23 running backs with at least 150 carries this year. This is the type of volume you need to get into the RB1 mix. Among those running backs, Taylor has the seventh-highest rate of carries versus seven or fewer box defenders. For a back with as much volume as Taylor, he is seeing a surprising amount of beatable fronts. Taylor, of course, has shredded defenses when they don’t sell out to stop him. His 970 yards versus these looks are the most among all running backs. He has six touchdowns when facing seven or fewer defenders in the box. No other running back has more than three such scores. Taylor is a great back in all scenarios, but his ability to punish defenses when they committed extra defenders to stop Daniel Jones was his calling card. I suspect he won’t have such an easy time with Riley Leonard, Phillip Rivers, or Brett Rypien under center to close the season.
4) Our continuing coverage of Shedeur Sanders
I don’t want to have a recurring segment about the Browns’ third-string—now starting—quarterback in this article. The kid deserves his flowers, though. Sanders threw for 364 yards and three scores with another touchdown on the ground on Sunday. By EPA per play, it was the ninth-best performance of the week on the third-most attempts. Sanders’ aggressiveness has been the biggest change since he took over as the starter. His aDOT of 8.5 dwarfs Dillon Gabriel’s mark of 6.4. Sanders is throwing deep on 13.6 percent of his attempts. That is the eighth-highest mark in the NFL. Gabriel’s 4.3 percent deep throw rate is the lowest of any passer this year. Sanders is giving the Browns a chance, even if the results have been mixed so far.
5) Is Michael Wilson the GOAT?
I am obviously joking when I ask that question. It’s not like Wilson has two of the best fantasy performances of the year over the past month. What’s that? Wilson is, in fact, one of just two receivers with multiple 30-point PPR outings this year. Both of them have come in the past month, as you may have guessed. The others are Ja’Marr Chase, Drake London, Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and George Pickens. Wilson has been a fantasy godsend in the three games with Marvin Harrison Jr. sidelined.
He has at least 15 targets and a 30 percent target share in all of those contests. He will remain in the upper half of the WR1 ranks as long as Harrison Jr. remains out with his heel injury.
6) Christian Watson heat check
I wrote about the DNA of a superstar wide receiver during the offseason and briefly noted Watson as a player who checked a lot of boxes. I, of course, wrote him off because he was recovering from a torn ACL. Watson’s recovery went quicker than expected and he hasn’t missed a beat since retaking the lineup. Watson currently holds PFF’s No. 5 receiving grade and ranks seventh in yards per route run (2.47). His mark 2.26 YPRR as a rookie is what made him pop in my superstar wideout article. He hit that exact mark last year before the knee injury sent him to IR. Now he is on pace for a career year in YPRR and yards per game (64.6). Watson’s 18.6 aDOT is clear evidence that he still fills a niche role. That limitation will ultimately prevent him from taking the next step, but he is arguably the best field-stretcher in the league.
7) The Tony Pollard breakout no one was asking for
If you drafted Pollard, I’m sure his 26/161/2 rushing line was much appreciated. That is, if you started him off the heels of five consecutive RB3 (or worse) performances. It was Pollard’s first game with more than one carry of 15+ yards this year. His 161 yards on the ground go down as a new career-high. The fairly obvious reason he won’t repeat this feat is that the Titans got out to an early lead over the Browns and never looked back. Cam Ward attempted 28 passes, his third-lowest mark of the year, and Pollard set a season-high in rush attempts by a wide margin. Sportsbooks have Tennessee as a massive underdog in their next two games, keeping Pollard firmly in the RB3 ranks until at least Week 17, when they take on the Saints at home.
8) Emeka Egbuka has the yips
Since the Bucs’ Week 9 bye, Egbuka has dominated the team’s targets with a monstrous 32 percent target share. He has seen 48 percent of the team’s air yards over that stretch with a first-read target share of 40 percent. This is true alpha behavior. He is averaging a dismal 10.1 fantasy points per game during this stretch, barely good for WR3 numbers. Egbuka is second in the NFL in drops since Week 9 and has come down with just 2-of-5 contested targets. The rookie is third-to-last in fantasy points over expected on the year at -34.3. He was the No. 1 receiver in that metric over the first five weeks of the season. It’s hard to call plays like these anything other than a case of the yips.
9) The Dan Campbell effect
Campbell taking over as the Lions’ play-caller has had reverberating effects in the Detroit offense, from an increase in pass rate late in games to more easy-button looks for Jameson Williams. For now, I’ll be focusing on what it has meant for Jahmyr Gibbs. The third-year back is averaging an absurd 32.4 fantasy points per game since Week 10, Campbell’s first game on the headset. While Gibbs is likely running a bit hot to have three 30-point games and a 55-spot during that stretch, it isn’t completely random. Gibbs is seeing more work in every facet of his game.
| Goal Line Carry Share |
The receiving production has been particularly astounding. Gibbs was averaging 3.6 catches for 24.6 yards per game through the air before Campbell took over. He is up to a weekly receiving line of 5.8 grabs for 55.4 and .4 scores since the change.
10) Pat Bryant takes over
The Day Two rookie has quietly supplanted Troy Franklin as the Broncos’ No. 2 receiver. Franklin’s route rate has fallen in four consecutive weeks, hitting a season-low of 40 percent on Sunday. Bryant, on the other hand, is trending in the right direction with route rates over 60 percent dating back to Week 9. Following Denver’s Week 12 bye, Bryant has earned a pedestrian 15 percent target share. His 33 percent air yards share, however, is notable. Bryant also ranks second on the team in first-read target share (19.5 percent) since the bye.