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Matt Bowen
Roster decisions in the fantasy football playoffs are tough. And sometimes we get a little too emotional about — or attached to — a player because of his name, where we drafted him, the team he plays for, etc. So we keep him in the lineup and ignore the numbers that demonstrate that player is trending down. And then we wonder why we get knocked out in the first round.
Season over. See you next summer. The end.
We’ve all been there, right? I have. Bad decision-making gets you beat in the tournament.
For managers in ESPN standard leagues, you’re playing in a two-week window for the first round (Weeks 14 and 15), which means roster decisions include different variables. Maybe you’re up big after Week 14 and stick with the high-floor types, instead of chasing the upside. Or vice versa. The idea here is to make decisions based on your team needs.
For leagues like mine, meanwhile, where Week 15 is the start of the playoffs, the moves we make will ultimately decide whether we get to play again next week in the fantasy semis. So there’s a lot at stake here.
That’s why I want to look at three players who have disappointed recently to consider sitting in Week 15, and there are some big names here. Plus, I’ve listed some replacements, based off our composite PPR rankings at ESPN. I have also come up with three midtier players you should consider starting this week.
Good luck. Let’s get a win.
Players to potentially sit in Week 15
Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings: In a 31-0 Week 14 win over a subpar Commanders team, Jefferson scored just 3.1 points, catching two of four targets for 11 yards. You can’t win with that. And this continued a negative trend for Jefferson, who has fewer than 10 points in four of his past five games. Poor QB play here? For sure. But as we head into Week 15, the league’s best receiver, who has a really positive matchup against Dallas, has been reduced to a borderline top-20 play.
So how long are you going to wait on Jefferson? And can you do that in the fantasy playoffs? This is when managers have to focus more on the numbers (which are right in front of us) instead of the nameplate on the jersey. And that can be hard with a player like Jefferson. He’s a star. I get it. But if you are willing to make that move, here are some of the options you could put into your lineup instead, depending on your Week 15 needs: Jameson Williams and Jaylen Waddle present a higher ceiling, while Wan’Dale Robinson and Zay Flowers increase the floor in your lineup.
Emeka Egbuka, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I love the player. It’s the route running. Egbuka is savvy. Plus, he can uncover or beat you over the top. And we saw that early in the season, with Egbuka scoring 16 or more points in three of his first five games, with at least one touchdown grab in four of them. But since Week 6 — when Egbuka suffered a hamstring injury — the numbers have been down (8.9 PPG), and his recent slump (fewer than 10 points in his past four games) should have managers looking at better options.
It is important to note that Egbuka isn’t being phased out of the Tampa offense. The volume is still there, as Egbuka has seen at least eight targets each of his past four games.
But with the missed opportunities (one drop in four of his past five games), plus a quarterback in Baker Mayfield who hasn’t thrown for more than 200 yards in his past four games, playing Egbuka in Week 15 against Atlanta feels like an unnecessary risk. Oh, and Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan could be back this week, too. That tells me to adjust the lineup, which means potentially sitting Egbuka.
Looking for stronger plays with more upside? Christian Watson, Jordan Addison and Chimere Dike work here, while Jauan Jennings presents a more stable floor.
Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs: Sure, you can hold out hope for a breakout game from Worthy, because he has the variables to make that happen: speed, versatility, scheme. He can create big plays with the ball in his hands.
However, Worthy has scored fewer than 10 points in five of his past seven games, and he has yet to post a 20-point week this season. Remember, Rashee Rice is going to get his targets from Patrick Mahomes. So will Travis Kelce. Hollywood Brown is in the mix, too, and Tyquan Thornton is the vertical stretch target for the Chiefs.
Worthy averaged 3.4 receptions over his past five games. That’s not enough. He also hasn’t scored a touchdown during this stretch, and he has only one red zone target. Yes, Andy Reid can manufacture touches for Worthy, but without the volume or the scoring upside, Worthy is more gadget-like than dependable in your lineup. And that’s why managers can look at other options in Week 15, especially with the Chargers’ defense on tap. Romeo Doubs, Devaughn Vele, Luther Burden III and Rashid Shaheed fit here.
Players to potentially start in Week 15
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Field Yates: Jets provide Trevor Lawrence a good fantasy opportunity
Field Yates explains why Trevor Lawrence is a top-12 fantasy quarterback vs. the Jets.
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars: Lawrence has 17 or more points in three straight games, with multiple touchdown passes in each. Lawrence is throwing on rhythm in Liam Coen’s offense, plus he’s using his second-reaction ability to make plays outside of structure in the pass game. And Lawrence is giving you some rushing numbers, with at least three carries in each of his past three games.
For managers in 12-team leagues, Lawrence can be started as a fringe QB1, and you’re also playing the matchup versus the Jets’ defense, a unit allowing 18.8 PPG to opposing quarterbacks (10th most).
Devin Neal, RB, New Orleans Saints: Neal’s Week 15 value is tied to the health of Alvin Kamara (knee), so let’s keep eyes on the Saints’ injury report this week. If Kamara is still down, however, I’d roll with Neal for Sunday’s game versus Carolina.
A volume grinder with a decisive running style, Neal had 20 touches in the lead role for the Saints in their upset win over the Bucs on Sunday. Sure, he averaged only 3.7 YPC, but he did find the end zone — scoring on a goal-to-go carry — and he can give you something in the pass game as an underneath outlet/screen target.
Neal might be a better fit for deeper-league managers. But the point here is you’re chasing the volume, which can give you 12-15 points in the flex spot. And Neal is still available in more than 40% of ESPN leagues.
Jakobi Meyers, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars: I think Meyers has been overlooked since his trade to Jacksonville because of his tape with the Raiders. But that’s a bad football team in Vegas, and Meyers can still get open. Plus, with the Jags, the target volume is climbing, and he is catching touchdowns on end zone throws.
Meyers, who had 10 targets in Week 14 against the Colts, has at least one touchdown reception — and six or more targets — in three straight games. During that stretch, he has averaged 12.3 PPG, and it’s pretty clear the Jags are scheming for him in the route tree. Plus, with an elevated level of play from Lawrence, Meyers will continue to see opportunities Sunday versus the Jets.
Need a flex with a reliable floor? It’s Meyers this week. Let’s get him in the lineup.