Fantasy Football Defense (DST) Week 16 Rankings and Streamers

Not gonna lie, I feel pretty good about how these rankings performed in Week 15. We got six of the top 10 defenses correct again, with a few obvious ones like the Eagles, Texans, and Jaguars, but I was also much higher than consensus on the Bears, Chargers, and Chiefs, so those were nice hits.

I also had the Ravens ranked 11th against the Bengals, and they finished in the top 10, and I faded the 49ers down to 13th when they were consensus ranked 5th. They finished outside of the top 20 defenses on the week. I think that the 49ers game and the Commanders game the week before are good reminders to us that using a defense that has been bad all season just because they have a good matchup is not a great strategy. Especially in the fantasy playoffs. I want to live and die with players and units that have performed at this point in the season.

I also published my playoff rankings for the fantasy football playoffs. I plan to update that tomorrow, so check back in on that if you want suggestions for beyond this week.

As a final reminder, what you’ll get below, and every week, is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will be my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.

Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are.

2025 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)

WEEK 15: 6-4

SEASON-LONG: 79-71

The Seahawks and Lions lead the clear D/ST starts, but the Packers and Falcons headline the streamers to watch. Here’s how to set your fantasy defense in Week 12.

BOD Formula and Philosophy

If you’ve read my earlier articles, then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents factor into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of a matchup, as bad defenses are also bad for a reason.

To find the best plays every week, I utilize the following formula (EPA allowed is in a small decimal point, hence the heavy multiplication):

((PRESSURE RATE x 1.5) + (TURNOVER RATE x 2)

MINUS

(EXPECTED POINTS PER PLAY ALLOWED x 100) + (3rd DOWN CONVERSION RATE ALLOWED X 0.5) + (OPPONENT SCORING RATE))

I then add that total to the team’s fantasy points per game over the last eight weeks, since fantasy points are the strongest predictor of fantasy points. I will obviously have to make manual adjustments each week to account for injuries or weather issues, but I try not to rank too much on “gut feel” or concerns about wind, etc.

With that out of the way, onto the rankings.

FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF DST PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK, CHECK OUT ERIC’S PICK 3(DST) VIDEO OVER ON THE NFL ON NBC YOUTUBE PAGE.

The Texans are my runaway number one defense this week, ahead of a showdown against a bad Raiders team. We may get Geno Smith back under center for the Raiders, but I’m not sure that matters. The Raiders will for sure be without left tackle Kolton Miller, who was placed on the IR, and starting right guard Jordan Meredith is also questionable to play. That’s bad news against this Texans defense. Over the last two months, the Texans rank 5th in pressure rate, 5th in opponents’ scoring rate, 5th in third-down conversion rate allowed, 5th in EPA per play allowed, and 10th in turnover rate, which has led to 10.4 fantasy points per game. It’s hard to find a defense I’d be more confident in.

The Eagles aren’t fair behind here, and they have quickly become the best fantasy defense for the fantasy playoffs, or at least the best one you could have added 2-3 weeks ago. Over the last two months, they rank 3rd in pressure rate, 3rd in opponents’ scoring rate, and 3rd in EPA per play allowed while averaging 9.0 fantasy points per game. The Commanders have also allowed 9 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month. We know for sure that Marcus Mariota is going to start every game for the remainder of the year, and we know the Commanders will also be without Zach Ertz and could be without Chris Rodriguez Jr. and starting left tackle Laremy Tunsil. That kind of stuff may not matter against the Giants, but it’s going to matter against the Eagles.

It’s been an up-and-down season for the Bills’ defense, which seems to only play one good half of football each game. However, on Sunday, that good half totally shut down a solid Patriots offense. Over the last two months, the Bills rank 6th in turnover rate and have averaged 8.0 fantasy points per game. That should be good enough against a Browns offense that’s allowing 10.0 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month. The Bills don’t have a great pass rush, which is not ideal since Shedeur Sanders takes plenty of sacks, but the Bills’ pass rush is actually on par with the Bears, and the Bears racked up five sacks. The Browns could still be down three starting offensive linemen, and the Bills are playing for a division title still, so I think they’ll come out motivated.

I have faded plenty of mediocre defenses in plus matchups of late, but the Saints are different. Over the last two months, New Orleans ranks 8th in third-down conversion rate allowed and 10th in EPA per play allowed while averaging 6.1 fantasy points per game. For comparison’s sake, the 49ers are averaging 3.9 fantasy points, and the Commanders are averaging 3.0 fantasy points, so even though the Saints aren’t an elite fantasy defense, they are the 14th-ranked defense over the last two months, which makes them decidedly average. If the Saints get to face Brady Cook on Sunday, I’m firing them up with confidence.

Over the last two months, the Chargers rank 1st in third-down conversion rate allowed, 2nd in the league in EPA per play allowed, 4th in opponents’ scoring rate, 7th in pressure rate, and 7th in turnover rate while putting up 8.9 fantasy points per game. They have carried this team into a likely playoff spot. The matchup against the Cowboys isn’t a great one, since Dallas is only allowing 4.5 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month, but Dallas is now all but eliminated from the playoffs, so you have to wonder what kind of effort we get on Sunday. Left tackle Tyler Guyton was also hurt on Sunday night and didn’t return to the game, so that would be a big loss for this offensive line. At some point, you just trust a defense that’s been playing this well.

FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF DST PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK, CHECK OUT ERIC’S PICK 3(DST) VIDEO OVER ON THE NFL ON NBC YOUTUBE PAGE.

In five career games against Sean McVay, Sam Darnold has averaged 232 passing yards and 3.4 sacks per game while throwing five touchdowns and five interceptions. Obviously, you’ll remember that four of those interceptions came back in November. In fact, since the start of 2024, Darnold is 0-3 against the Rams and has a 76.4 passer rating. Over the last two months, the Rams rank 4th in the NFL in turnover rate, 9th in pressure rate, 10th in opponents’ scoring rate, 11th in EPA per play allowed, and 12th in third-down conversion rate allowed while putting up 7.1 fantasy points per game. That’s not a great fantasy total, and this isn’t a tremendous matchup, but that’s the nature of the rankings this week with so many mediocre defenses being the ones to get good matchups. The Seahawks allow 5.3 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month, so maybe this is an eight-point effort incoming for the Rams.

Over the last two months, the Broncos rank 6th in third-down conversion rate allowed, 9th in EPA per play allowed, 12th in pressure rate, and 12th in opponents’ scoring rate while putting up a solid but not spectacular 7.9 fantasy points per game. However, I think the Jaguars’ recent schedule has made them look like more of a juggernaut than they are. I recent weeks, the Jags have beaten the Jets, Colts (without Daniel Jones), Titans, Cardinals, and Raiders. They did have a good win against the Chargers and a brutal loss to the Texans in there as well. I just think this Broncos defense, at home, is going to be a really stiff test.

Over the last two months, the Seahawks rank 1st in the NFL in turnover rate, 1st in EPA per play allowed, 1st in opponents’ scoring rate, 4th in pressure rate, and 4th in third-down conversion rate allowed, while averaging 12.7 fantasy points per game. However, they have also come up short in two seemingly strong spots against the Titans and Colts with Phillip Rivers at quarterback in recent weeks. It’s kind of hard to know just what type of performance we’re going to get from them, and this is a bad matchup, but they’ve been so good more often than not of late that it’s hard to bench them, especially with Davante Adams likely to miss this game with a hamstring injury.

The Dolphins didn’t deliver on Monday night against the Steelers, but I should have known that a frigid temperature game in Pittsburgh was a bad spot for them. This remains a defense that, over the last two months, ranks 2nd in the league in opponents’ scoring rate, 2nd in third-down conversion rate allowed, 8th in EPA per play allowed, and 11th in turnover rate, while averaging 8.4 fantasy points per game. They now get a Bengals team that doesn’t seem to be having much fun on the field. I keep expecting Cincinnati to bounce back, and I keep manually adjusting their points allowed in my model, but then they just keep giving up points to opposing defenses. Even this week, I softened their points against from 10.5 per game over the last four weeks to 8.0 points allowed to opposing defenses, and it still put the Dolphins here. Maybe we just have to trust what we’re seeing.

This Vikings defense hasn’t been great this season, and over the last two months, they have produced just 5.4 fantasy points per game. That said, they also rank 1st in the NFL in pressure rate over that span, and that’s useful against a mediocre Giants offensive line. The Giants have only allowed 7.0 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month, so this is not a smash matchup, but we also know that they’re not a great team, so I’m OK with the Vikings sneaking into the top ten here.

This Patriots and Ravens matchup is a fascinating one, and I think you can make the case that either defense will sneak into the top ten. Over the last two months, the Patriots rank 6th in opponents’ scoring rate, 8th in pressure rate, 10th in third-down conversion rate allowed, and 12th in EPA per play allowed. Meanwhile, the Ravens rank 3rd in the league in third-down conversion rate allowed, 8th in opponents’ scoring rate, 9th in EPA per play allowed, and 9th in turnover rate. Yet, it’s actually been the Ravens who have produced more in fantasy, averaging 9.0 fantasy points to New England’s 5.4. Some of that has to do with their big game against the Bengals on Sunday, but the Patriots have also not been the same defense since stud defensive tackle Milton Williams went on the IR with an ankle injury, so that’s why I lean towards playing the Ravens over the Patriots.

The Jaguars have been a bit fortunate of late, playing the Colts in a game they lost Daniel Jones to injury, and then facing Brady Cook and the Jets last week. Still, they have been delivering. Over the last two months, they rank 4th in the league in EPA per play allowed, 7th in opponents’ scoring rate, and 11th in turnover rate while scoring 9.6 fantasy points per game. They could deliver against a Broncos team that I think is not as good as their record, but I wouldn’t count on them for a top-ten performance.

The Browns are not in a great spot against Josh Allen and the Bills, but this Bills offense also hasn’t been as dynamic as we’re used to seeing. Plus, this Browns’ defense is solid. Over the last two months, they rank 2nd in the league in pressure rate, 7th in EPA per play allowed, 9th in third-down conversion rate allowed, and 11th in opponents’ scoring rate; however, that has led to just 7.4 fantasy points per game. A lot of that is because of the offense putting the defense in plenty of bad spots, but I don’t think that will change this week.

A few weeks ago, we thought the Bucs had a great fantasy playoffs schedule, but it’s pretty incredible how much that has not come to fruition. Over the last two months, the Bucs have averaged just 6.3 fantasy points per game, and they just put up two fantasy points against the Falcons and five against the Saints. Over those two months, they rank 8th in turnover rate but haven’t produced much anywhere else. This Panthers offense is mercurial, but they’re not allowing a lot of fantasy points to opposing defenses, so it’s hard to get excited about this matchup.

The Chiefs are now eliminated from playoff contention and will start Gardner Minshew at quarterback for the rest of the season after Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL. That being said, I just can’t bring myself to start this Titans defense, even if they do rank 11th in pressure rate over the last two months. They’re averaging just 5.7 fantasy points per game, and so maybe you could argue they push six or seven if the Chiefs are disinterested in this game.

If this game meant something for the Chiefs, then I may have their defense slightly higher, but they’re now eliminated from playoff contention, and the Titans are not as good a matchup as they were earlier in the season. Over the last two months, the Chiefs rank 6th in pressure rate, and that could be important against a rookie quarterback in Cam Ward, who can sometimes hold the ball too long. That being said, the Titans have allowed just 6.0 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month and have prevented the Seahawks, Browns, and 49ers from putting up strong fantasy point totals. I’m going to bank on that continuing.

The Bears rank 2nd in the NFL in turnover rate and 9th in opponents’ scoring rate over the last two months, but that has led to just 6.1 fantasy points per game, so I’d rather not use them against the Packers, and I’m going to avoid using a Packers defense that just lost Micah Parsons to a torn ACL.

Each week, Tier 5 will be defenses that I don’t think anybody should play outside of the deepest formats.