Welcome to the Expected Points & Opportunity article for Week 16!
In this article, we will utilize my Expected Fantasy Points model to identify the most valuable players at each position. As you may already know, volume is crucial in fantasy football. However, it’s important to remember that not every opportunity is created equal. A player’s value can vary significantly depending on their usage and the overall offensive ecosystem. Expected Fantasy Points will take these factors into account to quantify each player’s projected fantasy value, based on the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.
The key metrics used in this article are:
- Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. This metric is closely tied to efficiency and is subject to regression on a weekly basis.
What do these metrics tell us?
- My model analyzes fantasy production in terms of volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE).
- Players with high xFP are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on FPOE may experience volatility in their production. In other words, we want to target players who rank highly in xFP.
- xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used in conjunction with other metrics for a holistic view.
- While I caution investing in players who rely on FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your DFS lineups.
If you are new to this series, be sure to check out my full series primer, where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.
If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
RUNNING BACKS
- Bijan Robinson remains the focal point of the Falcons’ offense, averaging a 42.2% opportunity share and 16.7% target share over the last six weeks. And in my usage model above, he is the RB4 in Expected Fantasy Points (16.8) since Week 10. If you needed even more confidence in his upside for Week 16, Robinson is set to face a Cardinals defense that profiles as one of the most favorable matchups for RBs. Not only are they giving up the third-most fantasy points (29.1), but they also rank as a top-five matchup in EPA per Play (0.12) and Success Rate (46.3%) to RBs. And even though he is currently one of the most expensive players on DraftKings, he is also one of the safest options due to his usage and matchup.
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