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David Purdum
As someone who covers gambling (but is admittedly bad at gambling), I’m hesitant to hand out much betting advice. However, seeing as it’s the holiday season, I’d like to offer one friendly suggestion to the American betting public: The next time a social-media-influencer-turned-boxer takes on an active two-time heavyweight champion and Olympic gold medalist, don’t bet on the YouTube guy.
At DraftKings, 90% of the bets placed and 90% of the money wagered on the Jake Paul-Anthony Joshua fight was on the underdog Paul. The sportsbook said it could’ve lost nearly $100 million if Paul, who closed as a 10-1 underdog at DraftKings, had pulled the upset. Instead, Joshua, a -1600 favorite, knocked him out in the sixth round and delivered another tough break for the American betting public.
“We were happy with the outcome — the book fared well, and it was great to see such strong interest in boxing,” Johnny Avello, director of sports operations, told ESPN on Sunday.
Seven years ago, when undefeated boxing champion Floyd Mayweather took on the UFC’s Conor McGregor, professional bettors took Mayweather, calling it the best betting opportunity of their lifetime. Meanwhile, the betting public sided with McGregor, even though he had never boxed professionally. Mayweather wore down McGregor and eventually knocked him out.
Eight years later, the betting public apparently didn’t learn its lesson when it came to Friday’s Paul-Joshua fight. Prediction market Kalshi had more than $74 million in volume in the fight, reportedly including a $183,954 position on Paul taken by one unfortunate customer.
At Caesars Sportsbook, the fight drew only 20% of how much was bet on the College Football Playoff opener between Alabama and Oklahoma.
“The fight handle was comparable to North Carolina State and Memphis from earlier in the day,” Joey Feazel of Caesars Sportsbook said. “A few chunky wagers [on Joshua] came in by the sharps who knew how much of a mismatch on paper the fight should have been.”
While the bulk of bettors took stabs on long shot Paul, there were a select few who were willing to risk a lot to win a little on Joshua. Christopher Dierkes, a high-stakes bettor, called the fight “arguably one of the biggest mismatches in any sport on a big stage.” He handicapped the fight and believed the price on Joshua, even as high as it was, was still a bargain. He risked $1,077,044 that Paul would not win the fight and made a $157,549 profit. He said, leading up to the fight, he basically had just one concern.
“The real risk in my opinion was the rig factor, which I thought was a possibility — it is boxing of course, crazier things have happened,” Dierkes, head of trading for sports prediction exchange Novig, told ESPN. “But I did not weigh it very high considering Joshua was very popular, already very rich and unlikely to ruin his reputation for Jake Paul.”
NFL odds and ends
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The Kansas City Chiefs lost to the Tennessee Titans as 3-point favorites Sunday. It’s the Chiefs’ eighth loss this season in games in which they were the betting favorite, tying the 2014 New Orleans Saints, 2003 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 1983 New York Jets for the most losses as a favorite in a single season in the Super Bowl era. The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in seven straight games, tied with the Buccaneers for the longest such active streaks.
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The Carolina Panthers, who upset the Buccaneers as small underdogs, notched their eighth outright win of the season as underdogs, tying Washington in 2015 as the team with the most wins as an underdog in a season.
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The Seattle Seahawks’ comeback win over the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday produced the second-largest win of the season for bettors with Caesars Sportsbook, according to Feazel. The biggest win for bettors with Caesars came in the Buffalo Bills’ 41-40 win over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1.
College football odds and ends
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Alabama begins the week as a consensus 7-point underdog against No. 1 Indiana in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1. The Crimson Tide have not closed as at least a 6-point underdog since the 2008 SEC Championship Game against Florida.
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Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer has won 10 of his 14 games outright as an underdog in his coaching career, the best winning percentage of any coach who has been an underdog in at least 10 games since the 1978 FBS/FCS split, according to ESPN research.
College football quarterfinal lines
via DraftKings Sportsbook; as of Sunday; subject to change