Warriors vs. Mavericks prediction, odds, time: 2025 NBA Christmas Day picks from proven model

Western Conference foes meet in the middle matchup of the 2025 NBA Christmas schedule when the Golden State Warriors host the Dallas Mavericks. Dallas is 12-19 on the season and enters this matchup 11th in the Western Conference standings. Golden State is 15-15 and eighth in the West. Kyrie Irving (knee) remains out for an extended period for Dallas, while Klay Thompson (knee) and PJ Washington (foot) are among the Dallas players who are day-to-day heading into this holiday matchup. 

Tipoff from Chase Center is at 5 p.m. ET. Golden State is an 8.5-point favorite in the latest Warriors vs. Mavericks odds, while the over/under is 227.5. Before making any Mavericks vs. Warriors picks, check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. The model enters Week 10 of the 2025-26 NBA season on a sizzling 30-14 roll on top-rated NBA spread picks dating back to last season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

Now, the model has simulated Warriors vs. Mavericks 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NBA picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and NBA betting lines for Mavs vs. Warriors:

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How to make Warriors vs. Mavericks picks

SportsLine’s model is going Under on the total (227.5 points). Golden State has seen two of its past three games go Under the total, while Dallas has slightly trended to the Under this season with 52% of its games hitting that side of the total. Dallas has several of its offensive options banged up, but Anthony Davis, the team’s top defensive stopper, is healthy heading into the Christmas slate.

The model is projecting 227 combined points as the Under hits more than 50% of the time. 

It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that hits in nearly 60% of simulations. You can head to SportsLine to see the model’s NBA picks. 

So who wins Warriors vs. Mavericks, and which side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of th spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $10,000 on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.