The final week of the NFL regular season is here!
I had that “whoa, it’s almost over” feeling yesterday when I went to look at Week 18 opening odds and realized my odds screen is at the end of its scroll. Normally, the software pulls look-ahead lines and is pre-programmed at the beginning of the year to schedule out every NFL game and hold some of the prices previously listed. But now the scroll has hit rock bottom and there is nothing left besides a playoff abyss where the matchups are unknown.
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My first point of attack in trying to beat the Week 18 lines was to evaluate the stakes in each game. I have held firm that betting on a motivation factor is proven to be unwise when back testing recent years. Instead of searching for peaks and valleys in perceived motivation, I went looking for spots where a team may sit everyone in a meaningless game. The injury reports are going to be lengthy, a combination of aches and pains and real injuries. Betting into some of that asymmetry early in the week before practice and injury reports are submitted can provide massive value gaps from closing lines.
We will probably see some of the biggest line movement this week of the entire season for this reason. So, here are a few spots to bet now.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5, 36.5)
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5, 41)
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-2.5, 50.5)
I am grouping these matchups and betting analysis together because the basis of the handicap is the same throughout. There is an imbalance in stakes for these teams and I think that will play a large factor in injury news, subsequent line movement and value. I like the favorites in every game here, playing them against the spread at the current numbers.
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The Packers have locked in the No. 7 seed in the NFC postseason bracket. Not only do they not care about this game, health is the priority because next week they are absolutely going to play a road playoff game. It’s unknown if Green Bay’s backup quarterback Malik Willis will be able to suit up – but I would argue that the Packers should start Clayton Tune regardless because the health of the best backup QB is very important for the playoffs as well.
On the other side, while it’s unlikely that JJ McCarthy returns for this game, the Vikings would opt to play him in a home season finale to get him more reps if he’s able to give it a go. I expect Justin Jefferson to be active, while I don’t expect Green Bay’s main offensive to play much at all. Being on the road further helps the Packers opt to play no one. Vikings by a score is a best bet.
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The Commanders are at Philadelphia for Week 18, and the Eagles are locked into the playoffs but do have a seeding race to play for. They are currently the No. 3 seed, but can move up to No. 2 with a win over Washington and a Bears loss to the Lions. Considering the tightly-packed NFC with no standout team, the two-seed could mean the entire NFC bracket at home if there is an upset with the Seahawks or 49ers early on. The Eagles are also home, which gives them a boost to play guys in front of home fans, but also an easy out for Washington to go the other way. I expect Josh Johnson starts again at quarterback.
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Something to look for later in the week will be player prop unders on the Eagles, or live in-game unders. Once they control the lead – or hear from the Chicago/Detroit game overlapping at the same time, they should be conservative with player health as a priority.
The Lions go to the Windy City for the second game of a brewing divisional rivalry between Ben Johnson’s new team and his old one. However the Lions have nothing to play for, while the Bears want to win to secure the No. 2 seed. While Detroit preaches toughness, playing through the final whistle and always playing hard – I’m not sure that actually translates to a Week 18 game with nothing on the line.
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We’ve never seen a Dan Campbell-led Lions team in this situation, where there is nothing on the line. I think this could mean guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs could sit or play much fewer reps than usual.
Bet: Vikings -6.5, Eagles -7.5, Bears -2.5 (straight bets, not a parlay)
Seattle Seahawks (-1.5, 49.5) at San Francisco 49ers
This game decides who gets the overall No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Super Bowl is in Santa Clara at the 49ers home Levi’s Stadium, so the 49ers would have the opportunity to play the rest of the season at home if they win this game. The 49ers come into the game with six straight wins, five of them by double digits and covering the spread in every one. This has elevated San Francisco in market-based power ratings to the NFL’s fifth-best team.
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I feel some of that rating is a bit overrated, as the schedule and strength of the opponent has been very weak. The 49ers beat the Cardinals, Panthers, Browns, Titans and Colts with Phillip Rivers in this string of games. Going against the Seahawks’ elite defense, speed, coaching and game planning with large stakes on the game provides a much more difficult task. I expect as the week progresses, Seattle takes action and becomes the sharp side to want in this game — so take them early now at -1.
Bet: Seahawks -1