Have Orioles free-agency signings, trades been enough to compete in 2026?

No team in baseball has been more active this offseason than the Baltimore Orioles, who wasted no time springing into action after going 75-87 and finishing in last place in the AL East in 2025. The O’s added power in Pete Alonso, reinforced the bullpen with Ryan Helsley and Andrew Kittredge, swapped Grayson Rodriguez for Taylor Ward, and traded a bevy of prospects for Shane Baz. They also named Craig Albernaz their new manager.

The Orioles stayed busy this past weekend, re-signing veteran right-hander Zach Eflin to a one-year contract worth a reported $10 million guaranteed. He’ll join Baz and holdovers Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, and Trevor Rogers in the rotation.

There’s no chance this is where the Orioles and president of baseball operations Mike Elias thought they would be going into 2026. They didn’t go through that rebuild (MLB-worst 368 losses from 2018-21, 36 more than any other team) expecting to finish in last place in 2025 and having to dip into free agency to improve literally every part of the roster. The busy offseason was a necessity, not a luxury.

Credit to Elias & Co. for pivoting and acting decisively when it was needed, rather than simply sitting back and waiting for the next batch of prospects like so many rebuilding teams seem content to do these days. The O’s have done strong work improving the roster. Is it enough? Is there more to do? Here’s a look at the state of the Orioles with New Year’s on the horizon.

What remains on their offseason to-do list?

The No. 1 item on the O’s offseason shopping list was a legitimate front-of-the-rotation starter, and that remains their No. 1 need. Baz is a nice, high-upside pickup and Eflin is boringly reliable when healthy. Those are quality additions, though there’s still more that can be done. As things stand, the rotation currently looks like this:

1. LHP Trevor Rogers
2. RHP Kyle Bradish
3. RHP Shane Baz
4. RHP Zach Eflin
5. RHP Dean Kremer
6. LHP Cade Povich
7. RHP Tyler Wells
8. RHP Brandon Young

A strong top four, that is, but wouldn’t it look so much more formidable with a true No. 1 starter to bump Rogers down to No. 2, Bradish to No. 3, and so on? Other than Dylan Cease and Michael King, every top free-agent starter remains available. That group includes Zac Gallen, Tatsuya Imai, Ranger Suárez, and Framber Valdez. (Elias and Valdez even overlapped in Houston.)

Even after re-signing Eflin, the Orioles may not be done adding to their rotation, according to MLB.com, nor should they be. You can never have too much pitching — it is baseball’s truest adage — plus there is a good deal of injury risk in that rotation above. Rogers may have some regression coming his way as well, particularly with his home run rate (one homer every 18.3 innings in 2025). 

The bullpen could use another arm as well. Helsley and Kittredge are a strong late-inning tandem, especially if Helsley figures out whatever was wrong with his fastball this past season and gets back to the All-Star version of himself. As things stand, Albernaz’s relief crew looks like this:

Whoever doesn’t crack the rotation (Kremer, Wells, etc.) could factor into the bullpen mix as well. You can see there’s room for improvement with that “middle” group though, particularly as Cano’s effectiveness has waned. The top free-agent relievers have all signed already. The best available are guys like former Orioles Danny Coulombe and Seranthony Domínguez, and Pierce Johnson.

Another thing for the O’s to consider this offseason: extensions. Gunnar Henderson is a Scott Boras client, so an extension may not be possible there. Ditto Jordan Westburg. What about Rogers though? He’s a year away from free agency. Or Adley Rutschman? The Orioles locked up Samuel Basallo in August. Might as well see what it’ll take to sign some other young players long-term too.

The Orioles have done their heaviest lifting already this offseason. A frontline rotation addition, be it Imai or Suárez or Valdez, would put a wonderful bow on Baltimore’s winter, and there are ways to upgrade the bullpen (and bench) too. Because they’ve been so active, Elias and the O’s can now be opportunistic, not rush into anything. They’ve put themselves in a really good spot.

What’s their payroll situation?

Since the David Rubenstein-led ownership group took over in August 2024, Baltimore’s payroll has gradually risen, though it still sits middle of the pack and comfortably outside baseball’s top 10. Here are the O’s payroll numbers, according to the indispensable Cot’s Baseball Contracts:

I was surprised the Orioles kept Ryan Mountcastle rather than non-tender him in November. He’s projected to make close to $8 million in his final year of team control and, right now, he’s on the short side of a DH platoon with Basallo. An $8 million paycheck is pricey for that role. Trading Mountcastle (the San Diego Padres jump out as a potential trade partner) would clear some money off the books.

Otherwise, the O’s are still a few million under their 2025 payroll even after all their early offseason activity. The average payroll was $201 million in 2025. Take out the big-spending Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets, and it was still $187 million. It’s not too much to ask that the Orioles run a league-average payroll in 2026. Doing so would give them plenty of room to add a top starter.

As it stands, the Orioles appear to have a few million to spend just to get back to this past season’s payroll. Shedding Mountcastle would free up even more. You’d really like to see payroll continue to rise too. That’s how this is supposed to work. You rebuild, then when you’re ready to contend, you up payroll and invest. The O’s have done that the last few years. Now keep going.

Have they done enough to get back to the postseason?

The O’s have had a very good offseason and it will be a great offseason if they add a top starter. The unspoken part of this all is they have to figure out why so many of their young hitters have stalled out. Henderson’s awesome and Westburg is solid, but Rutschman stopped hitting in the middle of 2024. Heston Kjerstad and Coby Mayo have failed to launch. Colton Cowser is fine.

The master plan was to build a powerhouse homegrown offense and supplement it with pitching along the way. That plan has fallen off the rails. Here’s where Baltimore’s offense has ranked the last few years:

That’s a nice, steady climb out of the rebuild and to one of the best offenses in the game in 2024, then splat. And really, the decline began in the second half of 2024. The O’s crashed hard in the middle of that season and it carried right into the playoffs, when they scored one run in their two-game Wild Card Series sweep against the Kansas City Royals.

Alonso and Ward bring much-needed right-handed power to a lineup that leaned too left-handed at times and made matching up easy for the opposing manager. They are only two players though. At the end of the day, the homegrown guys (Cowser, Rutschman, etc.) have to hit. That as much as anything the O’s do this offseason will determine their 2026 fate.

Just to put some numbers on this, FanGraphs projections currently have the Orioles as the eighth-best team in baseball, narrowly ahead of the AL East rival Boston Red Sox. Four AL East teams are in the top nine. It will again be a brutal division, one that will be decided as much by injuries as it will performance on the field. The team that stays healthiest will win the AL East. Their World Series odds have risen too, from +3000 after the Dodgers hoisted the trophy to +2200 currently (via DraftKings).

On paper, the O’s have done enough this offseason to re-enter the playoff mix. There are three wild-card spots per league now and the third AL wild-card team has averaged 87 wins in the four years of this postseason format. The bar isn’t that high and if the Orioles can’t clear it in 2026, it will be fair to ask if the rebuild failed and what is foundationally wrong with the organization.