Tatsuya Imai bet on himself by agreeing to a three-year deal with the Houston Astros on Thursday that, per league sources, can max out at $63 million.
The length and total dollars of the deal differ greatly from projections. At the start of the offseason, The Athletic’s Tim Britton predicted Imai, a 27-year-old right-hander from Japan, to land an eight-year deal worth $190 million. Britton wasn’t alone; MLB Trade Rumors pegged Imai for six years, $150 million.
Clearly, the league viewed Imai differently. Therefore, any potential long-term offer would not be as high as the annual average value. A league source suggested Imai might have secured approximately $30 million more in total with a longer-term deal. So, rather than focus on length, it made more sense for Imai to seek a higher annual average value and flexibility.
Imai can opt out after the 2026 and 2027 seasons, meaning he gets multiple cracks at free agency before his 30s. He needs to prove himself in the major leagues first.
Teams liked Imai — around 15 at least checked in on him, per league sources — but some scouts and executives from different clubs said pitch data hurt his market. Some evaluators harbored concerns over how Imai’s fastball would fare in the majors. Imai can dial his fastball to the upper 90s. But scouts questioned the movement and plane of the fastball while also wondering if he could effectively pitch off the heater instead of needing to use all his pitches early and often.
Thus, the fastball concerns connect to the question of how many innings Imai will provide. In Japan, Imai racked up more than 160 innings in each of the last two seasons. His performance bonuses with the Astros, however, start to kick in once he eclipses 80 innings, league sources said. He will receive an additional $3 million if he reaches 100 innings.
The Astros do not typically make deals that include opt-outs. The club’s exception for Imai suggests some kind of market, albeit one lacking the monster long-term deal the industry originally assumed he would land. Alternatively, Imai holds the opportunity to demonstrate that he should’ve received one.
Where could Framber Valdez land?
Imai ending up with the Astros is a good outcome for Valdez, the consensus top remaining free-agent starter. While Houston might have held some mild interest in bringing Valdez back, the two parties were not engaged with one another on a serious level, league sources said. Houston was a surprise landing spot for Imai.
Other teams, such as the Baltimore Orioles and New York Mets, are still interested in adding to their rotations.
Kazuma Okamoto’s versatility to play the outfield could help him draw interest from teams. (Darren Yamashita / Imagn Images)
Kazuma Okamoto in the outfield?
Okamoto’s posting window ends Sunday at 5 p.m. ET. While most clubs are interested in Okamoto for his bat and see him as a corner infielder, the ability to play left field helps his market, too. Speculatively, Okamoto’s versatility makes him even more of a fit for interested teams like the Toronto Blue Jays, a club containing internal infield options plus the potential to make other additions.
In Japan, Okamoto, 29, played mostly first base and third base, but logged 15 games in the outfield as recently as 2024. Generally, teams may not see Okamoto as an everyday corner outfielder, but one evaluator said Okamoto could be helpful in the outfield, given the right situation with limited ground to cover.
Offseason of the closer
Clubs scooped up free-agent relievers with more urgency than in previous offseasons. There were plenty of talented high-leverage relievers available, prompting one prominent agent to dub this winter “the offseason of the closer.” Another theory as to why the reliever market moved so fast from the perspective of agents and players: Perhaps teams realized the prospect capital at the trade deadline and figured to allocate more dollars than usual by this time of winter to the position instead.
Among the best available relievers remaining in free agency are Tyler Kinley, Seranthony Domínguez, Pierce Johnson, Justin Wilson (lefty), Danny Coulombe (lefty), Jakob Junis and Michael Kopech, who is believed to be healthy after dealing with knee issues last season.
According to FanGraphs’ RosterResource, Kinley, 34, is the best available right-handed reliever. From Aug. 1 to the end of last season, Kinley produced the third-best OPS against (.329) for a reliever with a minimum of 15 appearances in the span (178 relievers), behind only Aroldis Chapman (.284) and Brad Keller (.328).
While with the Atlanta Braves for the final few months of the season, Kinley used his breaking balls more. From August on, the batting average against his slider was .222, per Tru Media, while the batting average against his curveball stood at .000.