We’ve been watching the various hot spots for potential postseason changes since the middle of November. One name that has become more conspicuous down the homestretch of the season is Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles.
At a time when few clear and obvious separations seem to be coming (the Raiders and Pete Carroll are the most evident), others who may be on the way out may also not be on the way out. And Bowles falls squarely into that category.
Maybe he’s safe, maybe he’s not.
Buccaneers ownership typically hold its cards very close to the vest. Which results in surprise moves. In early 2009, the Bucs stunned everyone by firing Jon Gruden and promoting Raheem Morris from defensive backs coach. In 2016, the Buccaneers surprisingly fired Lovie Smith and promoted offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter.
Then came the late March departure of Bruce Arians in 2022. It was presented as a voluntary retirement. The circumstances suggested it was linked to the unretirement of Tom Brady. And the end result was the promotion of defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, given that it was far too late to conduct a traditional search.
Bowles went 8-9 in 2022, winning the division and losing in the wild-card round to the Cowboys. In 2023, the Bucs and Bowles won the division again, with a 9-8 record. They upended the disintegrating Eagles in the first round, 32-9, before giving the Lions a better game than even Bowles seemed to realize in the divisional round. Last year, the Bucs went 10-7 and lost to the Commanders in the wild-card round.
Currently 7-9, Bowles’s overall record in nearly four full seasons is 34-33. A loss later today will drop the Bucs under Bowles to .500. (Including playoffs, he’s 35-36.)
The expectations were higher this year, and a 6-2 start in the league’s weakest top-to-bottom division made another playoff berth a no-brainer. If they fail to win today — or if they win and the Falcons win tomorrow — they will have blown what had seemed to be firmly in the bag.
If the Bucs don’t claim the NFC South crown, they’ll witness their last two offensive coordinators (Dave Canales and Liam Coen) in the postseason (with the Panthers and Jaguars, respectively) while Tampa Bay is sitting at home. That alone could be enough to get them to favor a shift to an offensive-minded coach, confident that successful seasons won’t result in an ongoing revolving door at offensive coordinator.
A separate question is whether the Bucs might blow it all up, like they did in 2009 with the firings of both Gruden and G.M. Bruce Allen. Jason Licht has held the position since 2014. He built the team that won a Super Bowl and that has been to the playoffs five straight seasons.
If the argument is that Bowles didn’t do enough with a capable team, the issue isn’t the talent. If ownership concludes that the talent isn’t where it needs to be, that’s a different issue.
However it plays out, we’ll keep waiting for ownership to fire, or not, the one specific cannon that gets loaded and lit without much warning, and at times when no one expected the loud bang.