This year, I’m personally writing our Tournament Takes article as a chance to dive into how I’m approaching roster percentages and my exposure in large field GPPs.
I’ll discuss our percentages found in our DFS Optimizer and where I differ from it, discuss ways to gain leverage on the field, and any other slate-specific thoughts.
I don’t want to simply repeat what I’ve done throughout the week so here are those articles if you need a chance to catch up:
As always, the best place to receive immediate feedback and discussion is in our #dfs Discord channels for JointheFoot.com members.
Roster Percentage Thoughts
IMPORTANT: With Week 18 playing time and motivation giving us a sliding scale, I honestly have less and less confidence in some of the roster percentage projections. That may seem alarming to you but after 17 weeks of looking at optimizers (across the industry, not just ours), we are conditioned to accept these %s with perhaps a bit too much enthusiasm. It is the fringe players (think Eagles WRs) that are impossible to truly put into a final number.
I could see Jahan Dotson being a cash lock or I can see the field playing him sub 10% as there are so many other cheap options to play around with. It is tough to quantify this range of outcomes because all you see is one final number. The issue of Week 18 projection fragility also develops from a “hive mindset” of content creators and websites that tout certain backup options as “must plays”. We don’t know what we don’t know. And yet, players are “steamed up” and played at rates higher than an optimizer can handle.
Why? How do you account, for instance, for Cowboys backup RB Jaydon Blue? At $4,300, we have him listed as our RB1 but it still terrifies us. Other than Javonte Williams and Malik Davis being declared out, we have virtually NO data supporting if he is talented on a football field. We can list statistics about the Giants ineptitude stopping the run and Blue’s price tag but other than “here’s a cheap RB you need to play”, the advice is somewhat flimsy. He hasn’t been on the field all year long! Any roster percentage projection we attach to Blue is probably going to come out wonky as there is a manual “touch-and-feel” aspect to his projection. I could see Blue being 35+ % in tournaments and 40-50+% in small fields. But I also could be wrong.
My goal is to walk through a couple of positional categories here and give you my confidence level.
Cheap RBs– I would prefer not playing more than one in my lineup BUT finding two RBs sub $5.5K who go for 15-20 points is a goldmine. Last year, backups Dameon Pierce, Miles Sanders, and Patrick Taylor all went for 15+ points in Week 18 and it unlocks builds where you can also play Bijan + Chase together. Bigsby and Blue are my personal favorites and I’m not really seeing other options populate as contenders. Jaylen Wright remains too fragile in my book.
Cheap WRs– I’m trying to stay away from sub $4K WRs but I know hitting on one of them gives you a leg up on the competition. One of the Eagles WRs (Dotson or Cooper) or Darius Slayton are my early favorites to add into my pool. However, I am making a rule to roster just one WR in this range.
Expensive RBs– There is no denying Bijan as both a floor and ceiling combo on this slate. Paying for both Bijan and Gibbs feels expensive as you need 60+ combined points to pay off. Expect the builds to have one stud + one of the cheapies as a starting place. This certainly gives you room to pay in the middle tier (Etienne, Jeanty, Tracy, Swift) and ignore both expensive RBs if you think their price tags are too high. I’m willing to build lineups without either (gasp).
Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images
Middle Tier WRs- This is the tier that likely will win tournaments.
- The Jaguars WRs are tough to sort through although Jakobi Meyers once again shines as the preferred all-around play.
- The mental block of not playing Michael Wilson was removed once Marvin Harrison Jr. was declared out. Expect Wilson to be in the 20+% range once again.
- I’m still debating how to handle Luther Burden III. This week has made him arguably one of the most talked about WRs in football. I’ll likely sit around 15-20% and meet the field but I could also see him sail north of this projection.
Rookie WRs with 2.50+ YPRR since 2014 pic.twitter.com/TCCovvz4Ao
— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) December 29, 2025
- The “way too talented” to be in this price range WRs of Drake London ($6900) and Justin Jefferson ($5800) are narrative-based plays only. Yes, we’d love to see JJetts peppered with targets in the final week with JJ McCarthy but even at this low, low price (the Bill Buttlicker special) he isn’t going to project as well as other WRs in better game environments. It’s just sad.
- I doubt Courtland Sutton gets clicked as much as the optimizer (11.4%) currently projects. That game is off the radar for most people.
Expensive WRs– Between Puka, Chase, and Amon-Ra, I can’t argue. I bet 80+% of lineups will have at least 0ne of those rostered. Amon-Ra is the one I have most confidence 3.5xing on his cheaper salary.
Tight Ends– Of the four most popular guys in our projections (Loveland, Johnson, McBride, and Mayer), only Loveland is being played with his QB. It opens to door for a few questions about the position:
- Is Kyle Pitts Sr. the most glaring leverage play this week over Juwan Johnson in the same game?
- Will anyone punt the position? We are currently projecting NO ONE under $3.5K above 3%.
- With 2 TE builds off the board, is Trey McBride a necessary piece on this slate? The optimizer has him down as a negative GPP value.
Expensive DSTs– All of the expensive defenses (MIN, BUF, DEN, HOU) catching a ton of roster percentage this week and rightfully so. The punt options can’t compete with heavy favorites who also happened to be playing against backup QBs. The top-4 listed here are projected for a whopping 48% of the field. When push comes to shove, I doubt these expensive DSTs account for that high of a percentage because no-one loves paying up for the position. Expect some DSTs around $3K to get some love like GB, ATL, or even PHI.
Leverage on the Field
IMPORTANT NOTE: These leverage plays should NOT be all played together. Dear lord, I had to say that or someone will message me saying “hey I did everything you said in that leverage section and my lineup was doo doo“.
Chalk isn’t all bad in DFS: there is a reason these players are projecting as popular plays. However, finding one spot in your lineup to create leverage and differentiate yourself from other lineups might be all you need.
Creating leverage is all about knowing what the public is thinking about a specific slate. We must pick and choose our spots wisely.
Here are my favorite leverage plays in GPPs for this week. Remember these are simply strategy-based plays, not necessarily “only do this”.
Top Leverage Play– Playing the Chicago Bears running game is a chance to flip the build this week. Over the last six weeks, the Lions have ranked 31st in yards per carry (5.0), 30th in yards before contact per attempt (2.59), and 25th in fantasy points above expectation (+4.4) to opposing RBs. The backfield split is what keeps these RBs in check but playing D’Andre Swift at under 10% or Kyle Monangai as a dart throw is going to be in my arsenal this week.
Late Swap Options- The afternoon window is going to carry a ton of roster percentage between CHI/DET and LAR/ARI That is not a bad thing but it is something to be conscious of as you are constructing your lineups. Identifying lower rostered players in this window for late leverage if you are behind is what this is about:
| Pos. | Early Popular Plays | Late Popular Plays | Potential Late Leverage |
| QB | Trevor Lawrence, C.J. Stroud, Jaxson Dart | Caleb Williams, Tanner McKee | Drake Maye, Bo Nix |
| RB | Bijan Robinson, Jaydon Blue, Travis Etienne Jr. | Jahmyr Gibbs, Tank Bigsby | RJ Harvey, D’Andre Swift |
| WR | Ja’Marr Chase, Jakobi Meyers, Darius Slayton | Amon-Ra St. Brown, Puka Nacua, Michael Wilson, Luther Burden | Terry McLaurin, DJ Moore, Jameson Williams |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | Colston Loveland, Trey McBride, Michael Mayer | Colby Parkinson |
| DST | HOU | BUF, DEN | NE, PHI |
Stacking Up TEs– I’ve identified the most popular TEs on the slate but apart from Colston Loveland, none of the QBs are being played alongside those options. This gives you a window to identify who is NOT being played with their QB such as Dalton Schultz (HOU), Grant Calcaterra (PHI), or even Hunter Henry (NE) alongside Drake Maye.
NYG stack + DAL WR– A skinny stack with Dart + why-the-heck-not Darius Slayton is affordable and a chance to 3.5x. However, instead of eating into Jaydon Blue chalk, you can bring it back with one of the Dallas WRs who are cannibalizing each other.
Dart Throw the Less Popular Guys– We mentioned the PHI WRs as the known cheap WRs but here are a list of others you could potentially throw into your tournament pools”
[/for_dfs_pass_user]
Want to read the rest of this article?
Get the 2025 Ultimate DFS Pass for instant access. Expert advice, weekly picks, premium reports, trusted & award-winning weekly resources.
Get the 2025 DFS Pass
Already purchased the DFS Pass? Log in here
