By Joseph Person, Mike Jones and Ken Bradley
Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield rolled right and hit tight end Cade Otton for a 20-yard gain on third-and-4 at the two-minute warning and the waiting — and rooting — game unofficially began.
The Carolina Panthers got the ball back with 16 seconds left and no timeouts at their own 3-yard line, but were unable to do much of anything before time expired and the Buccaneers celebrated … and extended their season for at least one more day.
Tampa Bay’s 16-14 victory means the NFC South winner will be determined late Sunday afternoon. It also means the division winner will finish the season 8-9, becoming the first team since the 2022 Bucs to reach the playoffs with a losing record.
Now, both teams will be glued to their TVs on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET when the New Orleans Saints play at the Atlanta Falcons. The Bucs (8-9), Panthers (8-9) and Falcons (7-9) would be tied at the top of the NFC South with an Atlanta win. In that scenario, Carolina would win the division and get the playoff spot because it wins the three-way tiebreaker by virtue of a 3-1 record against the other two teams. (The Panthers swept the Falcons and split with the Bucs this season.)
If the Saints win Sunday, Tampa Bay wins the division thanks to its edge in common games (the Bucs went 6-6 against common opponents, compared to the Panthers’ 5-7 record). Atlanta beat New Orleans 24-10 in Week 12 this season.
Mayfield completed 16 of 22 passes for 203 yards, a touchdown and an interception in soggy weather Sunday. Bucky Irving gained 85 yards on the ground and Otton led the Bucs in receiving with seven receptions and 94 yards.
Bryce Young was 24 of 35 for 264 yards, two TDs and an interception. But the Panthers never got their ground game clicking. Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard were limited to 10 rushing yards apiece and the Panthers managed just 19 yards on 14 carries.
Carolina was able to make a game of it late after rookie defensive tackle Cam Jackson blocked Chase McLaughlin’s 38-yard field goal attempt and the Panthers took over at their own 28. They drove 72 yards in eight plays, with Tetairoa McMillan’s 40-yard grab on fourth-and-8 the key play. Young hit Jalen Coker for an 8-yard TD with 2:27 left in the game to cut the Tampa Bay lead to 16-14.
Tampa Bay led 10-0 after the opening quarter after a Mayfield-to-Otton 18-yard TD pass and a McLaughlin field goal. After a Christian Rozeboom interception set up a short field for the Panthers, Young hit Tommy Tremble for an 8-yard TD.
The Panthers looked ready to cut into the Bucs’ 16-7 lead early in the fourth quarter when they drove to the Tampa Bay 20-yard line. But on first-and-10, Dowdle and Young botched a flea-flicker exchange, linebacker Lavonte David recovered the ball and the Bucs took over at their own 29 with 11:07 remaining.
Bucs find a way
It wasn’t pretty, but the Bucs got it done. Chalk this win up to sheer grit and determination. There were next to no explosive plays on offense. The defense even struggled to deliver a knockout punch. This Bucs team hasn’t been right for months now, but in this dire situation, they got it done. You had Mayfield scrambling around for his life and making Houdini escapes and passes, or tucking the ball and running and lowering his battered shoulders into defenders to pick up extra yards rather than slide short of the down marker. You had an offense grind out 140 total rushing yards to help control the clock on this soggy evening.
The defense recorded a couple of key takeaways but buckled while surrendering that Panthers fourth-quarter touchdown drive, though the unit did hang on just enough to deny the Panthers a last-second comeback drive. It’s debatable whether they have enough to be any kind of a threat in the playoffs. Injuries have reduced this team to a shell of the version we saw early in the season when Tampa Bay looked like a Super Bowl contender. And Todd Bowles and his staff have struggled to come up with answers on either side of the ball. But Saturday night, the Bucs players showed they haven’t given up on each other or their coach and managed to stop their four-game losing streak and grasp a flicker of hope. — Mike Jones, NFL writer
Back-to-back missed opportunities
The Panthers failed to clinch the NFC South for the second week in a row and now need help from the Falcons. The Panthers could have ended a seven-year playoff drought last week with a win against the Seattle Seahawks, and failed. They could have sealed the division Saturday at Tampa, and couldn’t get it done. Now it’s out of their hands and will be determined by the Falcons and Saints. If Atlanta beats New Orleans on Sunday, the Panthers will back-door their way into the playoffs at 8-9 — and host a game next weekend in the wild-card round. If the Saints — who will be without Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara — knock off Atlanta, the Panthers’ playoff skid will reach eight years. — Joseph Person, Panthers beat writer
Chuba Hubbard and the Panthers’ running game never got going against the Bucs. (Mike Ehrmann / Getty Images)
‘Let’s go Saints!’
And now they need help. As the game halted for the two-minute warning, two chants arose from the stands at Raymond James Stadium. “Who dat! Who dat!” and “Let’s go, Saints! Let’s go, Saints!” The Buccaneers now need the Saints to beat the Falcons on Sunday in Atlanta to give them the division and their ticket into the playoffs. Without an upset by New Orleans (3.5-point underdogs on Sunday), Saturday’s win will be for naught. — Jones
Questionable calls
The rain stopped in the third quarter, but the flags came pouring down on Carolina. The Panthers had a pair of tough officiating calls go against them on their first two drives after halftime, allowing the Bucs to grab the momentum. An official blew an erroneous whistle on a backward pass to Rico Dowdle, blowing the play dead and resulting in a 7-yard loss and ultimately a missed 54-yard field goal by Ryan Fitzgerald. Later in the quarter, a 31-yard reception by McMillan was wiped out by a pass interference penalty on McMillan against cornerback Benjamin Morrison that ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky disagreed with on the telecast. — Person
Canales on the flea flicker: Aggressive call. pic.twitter.com/IB9Oqqmtnq
— Joe Person (@josephperson) January 4, 2026
Failed flea flicker
One of the Panthers’ best drives of the game ended on a bad call — not by the officials, but by Dave Canales. Trailing 16-7, Young moved the Panthers into scoring position with four completions. But on first-and-10 at the Bucs’ 20, Canales called a head-scratching flea flicker that was doomed when Dowdle slipped after taking the handoff from Young. Dowdle still tried to flip the ball back to Young, but it landed at the quarterback’s feet and David recovered for Tampa Bay. Canales, who called plays for the Bucs in 2022, will want that one back. Or should. — Person